MULTAN, Oct 11: Following pest infestation in cotton fields of the Punjab and the shortage of the required pesticides, the crop size for 2003-4 has become a question mark.
Cotton sowing target for the year 2003-2004 had surpassed by 6.3 per cent as, according to the figures of federal ministry of food, agriculture and livestock, 7.5m acres had come under cotton cultivation against the target of 7.06m acres, the increase in the cotton acreage this year was said to be 14.89 per cent more as compared to the last year when about 6.53m acres of area came under cotton.
The logical outcome of the increase in cotton acreage this year was the speculations about a crop size better than the last year’s 10.2m bales. The pundits of cotton market had started projecting a rise of at least 15 per cent in the cotton production in line with the increase in the area under the crop. Therefore, perhaps, the Federal Textile Board in one of its meetings held in August last informally assessed the cotton output at 11.5m bales.
However, the experts while synchronizing the crop size assessments with increase in cotton acreage were overlooking a point that though the Punjab had shown an overall increase of 12.88 per cent in the area under cotton cultivation last year and 7.6 per cent against the sowing target this year, the rise in cotton acreage had also included cotton sowing in non-core and marginal areas.
It may be mentioned here that Punjab contributes almost 75 per cent of the country’s total cotton production and the core cotton districts in the province are Multan, Lodhran, Vehari, Khanewal, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur and Layyah. The increase in cotton acreage in these core districts, according to the official figures, was recorded as 9.15 per cent as compared to the last year and 4.3 per cent above the target this year.
The reports from the non-core districts — Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Jhang and Toba Tek Singh — where the cotton is reportedly cultivated on 607083 acres were not encouraging even at the early stage of crop maturity viz-a-viz pest pressure. If one goes through the weekly report of the directorate of pest warning and quality control of pesticides about the presence of various pests in cotton growing districts this season, it dawns that the pest flare-up initially started from the non-core districts. Being under a multi-crop system, the non-core districts were vulnerable to the pests that attacked different crops, including cotton.
Amid speculations of a bumper crop, the menace of pest infestation, especially of American, Army and Spotted bollworms, coupled with the shortage of pesticides, created doubts even about achieving the official cotton production target of 10.55m bales.
Pressure of pests, especially of bollworms, is not a new phenomenon to the crop in the country. After picking an all time bumper crop of 12.8m bales in the year 1991-92, the cotton crop of the country had to confront with the challenge of economically injurious cotton leaf curl virus (CLCV).
In the years to come, the researchers though coped with the CLCV problem, but in the process, according to the independent experts, they developed varieties susceptible to the pest attack for having broad leaves with high cholorophyl level.
However, the problem this year at the later stages of the crop has been the shortage of pesticides despite reported 40 per cent more availability as compared to the last year. According to a source in the plant protection department, a subsidiary of Minfal, the pesticides import for cotton crop this year had reached to Rs14 billion as compared to the Rs9 billion last year. Now the official and non-official experts have started blaming the Punjab agriculture department for launching an ill- timed awareness campaign about the pest warning which coupled with relatively high pest pressure this year increased the use of pesticides on the cost of growers’ kitty.
Where the hopes for a bumper looked grim in the wake of, according to last report, uncontrollable pest infestation in the Punjab, the buyers resorted to panic buying despite 32 per cent increase in phutti (seed cotton) arrival recorded by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association by October 1, and the prices of lint cotton soared to Rs3100 per maund the other day and of phutti to Rs1300 to Rs1400 per 40kg.
However, the millers chalked out a plan to do away with the buying euphoria to arrest the price increase. The prices have come down to Rs2800 per maund.1
Market analyst forecast further decline in the cotton prices due to cautious buying by the spinners and they predict this phenomenon to remain in vogue up to December 2003, irrespective of the conditions in international market.
They are of the view that the things in the local market will start changing in favour of the cotton sellers in December when the affects of pest attack will start reflecting in the face of phutti arrival because the menace has damaged the bolls which have grown after September 15, thus, affecting the third pick of cotton, which constitutes almost 20 to 25 per cent of the total cotton output. The standing committee on cotton crop assessment of the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee has not given its estimate of the crop size but the federal agricultural ministry is still sticking to its production target of 10.55m reportedly on the assurance of Punjab that it would produce the targeted 8m bales. However, independent analysts say that even if the crop avoid any major setback in the face of pest pressure, it is unlikely to even have a crop more than 9.5m bales.