KARACHI, Oct 12: Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan rose from $115 million in fiscal 1999-00 to $140 million in 2000-01, according to a source in Export Promotion Bureau. But exporters say the rising trend may not continue through the current fiscal year if the US air strikes on Kabul protract.
The $25 million increase in the exports to Afghanistan in the last fiscal year is largely due to a $21 million export of wheat flour. Pakistan had harvested 19.2 million tons of wheat in fiscal 2000-01. This coupled with carryover stock of 4.2 million tons enabled the country to produce surplus wheat flour for exports.
Whether Pakistan’s exports to the land-locked country maintain a rising trend through this fiscal year is yet to be seen. But traders say much will depend on how soon the US air strikes on Kabul come to an end.
“If the air strikes end soon, the exports should rise because in that event Kabul would need many things for rehabilitation,” says chairman of Pakistan Commodity Traders Association Raees Ashraf Tarmohammad.
“But if the attacks protract the exports would fall sharply,” he said when reached by Dawn over telephone.
Former chairman of All Pakistan Flour Mills Association Sheikh Akhtar Hussain made a similar observation. “The demand is there. Even after the US air strikes traders are making enquiries for exporting wheat flour to Kabul,” he said while talking to Dawn on Friday.
President of a private company engaged in trading with Kabul and Central Asian states Alim Khan Fahmi said that if the US-led air strikes last longer Pakistan’s exports to these states will also suffer. Afghanistan provides a key road link to the traders in Pakistan and several Central Asian states.
Traders and sources in Karachi Customs say the sealing of the Afghan border and the UN sanctions placed on its government have left little room for Pakistan to maintain the present volume of exports.
“Only food items are currently being exported to Kabul,” said a source close to appraisement collectorate.
Traders also say they are getting export orders of grains and food items only adding that export of non-food items stopped a couple of days before the US attack on Kabul.
Pakistan’s main exports to Kabul include grains, food items, chemicals, plastics, things made of metal and engineering goods.
In 2000-01 export of rice to the war-torn country rose to $42 million from $29 million in 1999-00 whereas export of fruit and vegetables went up to $4.7 million from $3.1 million. In 2000-01 Pakistan also exported metal objects including items of daily use worth $1.1 million up from $500,000 in 1999-00.
But the export of dyes and chemicals fell to $1.6 million from $10.8 million and export of plastics slipped to $5.3 million from $7.8 million. Engineering goods exported to Kabul fetched $1.3 million showing no change over the previous year.
And surprisingly the export of handicrafts quadrupled at $1.7 million in 2000-01 from $365,000 in 1999-00.
Officials say Pakistan’s exports to Kabul in 2000-01 accounted for 1.5 per cent of total exports of $9.2 billion — up from 1.3 per cent in 1999-00.
Traders say misuse of Afghan Transit Trade facility and lack of communication infrastructure come in the way of increasing exports to Kabul. Besides direct smuggling from tribal areas of Pakistan into the land-locked country also impede growth of exports.
“Before the last fiscal year lot of wheat flour was being smuggled into Kabul,” said a local flour miller.
Traders based at Jodia Bazar say that cooking oil and ghee is still smuggled into Afghanistan in huge quantity.
They say there are enough potential for increasing exports to Kabul if the US-led coalition strikes end shortly — or if they result into change of the government there. “In both cases we will see enough demand of goods from Afghanistan,” said a trader based at Jodia Bazar. Even if the strikes continue for some time the demand for food items would be there. But part of that demand could also be met through aids by donor agencies.
In that case the exports to Kabul would fall.
Pakistani businessmen export goods to Afghanistan both through rupee-denominated letters of credit as well as on cash. Traders say exports against cash are much higher than what reflects in the official figures.”Ten truckloads of export goods move into Afghanistan through land routes but only one gets clearance by the Customs officials at checkposts,” says a ghee manufacturer.