WASHINGTON: Howard Dean, the outsider who confounded the pundits to surge ahead of the pack in the Democratic presidential nomination, was expected to face a reality check last night (SEPT4) in a televised debate, courtesy of his eight rivals.
After a summer where the former governor of Vermont raised more money and drew bigger crowds than the other contenders, last night’s encounter looked set to be a crucial moment for Mr Dean’s main rivals — allowing them to halt him in his tracks, or risk having to bow out themselves. “Howard Dean is as close to there as you could get,” said John Zogby, a political pollster.
The encounter increased the stakes for the eight other contenders. So too did the knowledge that there might not be many other opportunities to stand out, so long as political coverage remained fixed on Arnold Schwarzenegger, and there was a sense that George Bush might not be invincible after all.
So far only Mr Dean has succeeded in carving out an identity as the anti-war candidate, opposing the invasion of Iraq.
John Kerry, a Vietnam war hero from Massachusetts, who entered the year as the frontrunner, relaunched his campaign earlier this week. A CBS television opinion poll at the weekend showed him trailing with just five per cent support among registered Democrats.
Dick Gephardt, the veteran Missouri congressman, also failed to galvanise voters despite his strong links with organised labour. Joe Lieberman, Al Gore’s running mate during the 2000 elections, has failed to mobilise funds.
Other former favourites, such as John Edwards, the relatively young North Carolina senator, and the veteran Florida senator Bob Graham, have also faded.
“Dean distinguished himself from the others by opposing the war and by being outside the Washington establishment,” said Stephen Hess, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington thinktank. “It is certainly a constituency that can get a campaign off the ground, and that was what happened.” Most of the other contenders voted for the war — except for Mr Graham, and the Ohio congressman, Dennis Kucinich. However, Mr Graham has lacked organisation, and Mr Kucinich is at the most leftwing reaches of the Democratic party.
It has left Mr Dean to be the man among the Democratic activists tapping into the deep undercurrent of hostility towards President Bush. “As important as his stand against the war, there is a very strong visceral, anti-George Bush feeling among a fairly large number of Democrats, and he attacks Bush with a lot more vigour than the others. That is part of his appeal,” Mr Hess said.
As Mr Dean skillfully exploited the internet to galvanise Democratic activists, the biggest surprise was the failure of favourites such as Mr Kerry to demonstrate much support. Mr Kerry’s standing in the polls now puts him firmly towards the back of the pack with Al Sharpton, the fiery orator from New York.
But with the notion gaining strength that Mr Bush may not be an automatic victor in November 2004, others are toying with entering the race. Chiefly, there is Wesley Clark, the former Nato commander, aligned with the Democrats. Meanwhile, last night the contenders were having to tread carefully to establish their presidential credentials without directly attacking the popular candidate.
“Every candidate is going to have to carve out some kind of issue to rise above the pack,” Mr Zogby said. “Dean has an intense following in Iowa and New Hampshire, and so it’s not going to be wise for them to attack him. They will risk alienating loyal Democrats and loyal Dean followers.” The television debate, the first of six, has been seen as the opening event of the political season. The campaign will gather momentum next week when the candidates court two powerful public- sector unions, and it will be all but decided early in March when Democrats in the largest US states hold their primaries.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.