URGENT question of all: will this agitation, sparked by the Danish cartoons, peter out or gather momentum? There have been two great movements in our history: that against Ayub Khan in 1968-69, and against Bhutto in 1977. Are we seeing the birth of a third?
For over six years Gen Musharraf has ruled largely in peace, facing no significant opposition. Now with rallies and strikes being called over the cartoon issue, his position looks threatened for the first time since October ‘99.
Anti-Musharraf feeling may be widespread but in the forefront of this agitation is the Jamaat-i-Islami whose Amir, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, has thrown a challenge by saying the powers-that-be wont be allowed to take the salute on March 23, Republic Day.
If the government had it wits about its, someone from its ranks should have pointed out that since the military parade this year has been cancelled because of the earthquake, the question of taking or not taking the salute does not arise. But no one has done so, a measure perhaps of the government’s confusion.
By a perverse sense of timing, George Bush will be visiting Pakistan right in the midst of this gathering agitation. Since beleaguered governments are prone to clutch at straws, we can expect Islamabad to gloat over the Bush visit, reading it as a sign of strength and approval. Given the tide of anti-Americanism on which the country is afloat, it is more likely to be a huge embarrassment if not an outright kiss of death.
Anger in one country is keeping it alive in others. This past week there were deadly riots in Libya and Nigeria. Iraq was already in turmoil. It has been plunged into more turmoil by the attack on the mausoleum of the Imam Ali al-Hadi in the town of Samarra, north of the country. The cycle of violence, counter-violence and more violence may not be getting out of hand. But it is becoming more dangerous and unpredictable.
But Pakistan is in a unique position. Unrest may be sweeping the Islamic world but nowhere is any sitting government threatened except in Pakistan. As even the politically innocent would be aware by now, in Pakistan this agitation is no longer about ‘khakas’ — the Urdu/Punjabi word for cartoons — but khaki, the nature of the Musharraf order and the future direction of Pakistani politics.
Quicker perhaps than anyone could have foreseen, the fury generated by the cartoons has acquired an anti-regime edge, feeding on a whole range of social, political, economic and anti-American grievances. Musharraf personally evokes no strong feelings of hatred as, say, Bhutto did. But his perceived kowtowing beyond the call of duty to his American allies hasn’t gone down well with his countrymen. A nod of approval from America used to be counted as a strong point by Pakistani rulers. In Musharraf’s case it has become his Achilles’ heel.
But for Musharraf all is not lost because his opponents suffer from weaknesses too. Only the Jamaat-i-Islami at the moment seems committed whole hog to a movement against the general. Other political parties are being wishy-washy.
True, there is no love lost between Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif but the latter’s PML-N, while possessed of a vote bank, has no street power.
The PPP is playing a waiting game, its leaders not happy to see the Jamaat steal the limelight but, at the same time, not wanting to be left out in the cold. So figures like Amin Fahim (who have the power to make anyone fall asleep) can be heard making token noises although their real commitment to an anti-Musharraf agitation remains unclear.
The PPP’s pro-American proclivities should also be factored in. Still banking on mythical American support, the PPP wouldn’t like to be part of anything smacking of anti-Americanism. Not that this is likely to do it any good because there is no shortage of Americans in positions of power and influence who find it hard to hide their contempt for Benazir Bhutto and her talented husband. But the PPP is past reforming and perhaps past caring.
Note must also be taken of the divisions within the religious alliance, the MMA. While the Jamaat is taking a hard line, its great ally Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman of the JUI can often appear all things to all men. For all his rhetoric and occasional thunder, he still has a hard time washing away the impression that he is secretly in cahoots with the government. This could be totally unfair but it is something for the JUI to take care of.
The MQM finds itself in an uncomfortable position. It knows where public sentiment is drifting but it can’t easily cut its links with the government. After all, Musharraf has been its greatest patron, helping the party to consolidate its power in Karachi and Hyderabad, and even Sindh as a whole. The MQM wont sacrifice these advantages lightly. Nor will it be part of any movement whose standard-bearer is the Jamaat-i-Islami. The MQM and the Jamaat are like fire and water. Not easy to mix.
The protests over the Danish cartoons and the political turn these have taken would be dangerous enough in themselves. How much more dangerous when the army is over-stretched, fighting internal wars on many fronts.
The army is fighting a mini-war in the Marri and Bugti areas of Balochistan. It is over-deployed in both Waziristans but despite this concentration of force making little headway against pro-Taliban elements which have made the tribal areas their base to launch forays into Afghanistan. If anything has tarnished Musharraf’s image among his American friends, who not long ago sang his praises and extolled his statesmanlike qualities, it is this failure against the Taliban.
That Musharraf threw in his lot with the Americans when they attacked Afghanistan is history by now and the Americans probably feel that any debt they owed him they have amply paid. What they expect of him now is to seal the Pak-Afghan border and deliver whatever of Al Qaeda is suspected to be in the tribal areas. On these counts he seems to have failed, the Americans facing more resistance in Afghanistan than at any time since their invasion.
The key question, however, may perhaps be different. What do the generals feel? Gen Yahya discovered the boldness to move against his benefactor, Field Marshal Ayub Khan, when Ayub had perceptibly weakened and become a liability.
Yahya in his turn faced a revolt in GHQ, holy of holies, only when East Pakistan was gone and he had become an embarrassment for the entire army.
General Zia became a stricken figure in mid-1988 when he dismissed the National Assembly and sent Junejo home.
Ayub and Zia stayed at the helm eleven years each. In the age of globalization, with time and space compressed, the six and a half years that Musharraf has been at the helm already appear too long.
Regardless of economic conditions — and for the teeming millions they are far from rosy — there is a feeling of tiredness in the air, the yearning for change almost palpable. Another five years of the Q League and the chatter of the rented crowd we see in Islamabad? A prospect too grim to contemplate.
Still, it is too early to make predictions. Only one thing is for sure. As Ghalib said,
Time travels at a gallop, who knows where it will stop,
The hand is not on the reins, nor the foot in the stirrup.