Being prime minister to General Musharraf's president is going to be no bed of roses. Whoever makes it will have to live up to some tough conditions. He'll have to make sure he never forgets himself and always walks in the general's shadow, a few steps behind him.

He'll have to have a tough skin, although in all fairness to the line-up forming in Islamabad none of the prime ministers-in-waiting seems wanting on this score. In other words, the perfect dummy: that's what is required for the job.

A prime minister who sees no evil, hears no evil and, most important of all, speaks no evil is the only thing that will work in the circumstances - the only thing that will fit the unspoken bill of Gen Musharraf's self-tailored constitution. Any sign of initiative or independence in the man or woman would be seen as a grave act of provocation, a summons to battle for Pakistan's generals.

We know the proclivity of our commanders. They can be remarkably indulgent about military incompetence. They certainly haven't lost any sleep over the bright performance of the last three years. But they can be terribly strict and censorious when it comes to judging civilian performance. From day one the knives will be out for any prime minister who makes the mistake of taking himself too seriously. Or who doesn't value discretion over valour.

We have to get a few basics straight. This is not a transfer of power we are about to see. Gen Musharraf certainly gives no impression of being a person who is about to hang up his gloves and play golf for the rest of his days in the presidency. If his uniform is anything to go by, it is getting crisper by the day. No signs of mothballing there.

What we are seeing are the great tribunes of the people about to be co-opted into the military's scheme of things. Democracy, or what version of it we have in this country, about to become a handmaiden of the military establishment. At best, the illusion of power shifting. The reality of it remaining firmly in place.

Gen Musharraf can't be faulted for obscuring the issue. He has been remarkably candid about what the future holds in store for the nation, emphasizing on more than one occasion that the new government will not be allowed to undo his political and economic reforms.

He has also expressed the hope that the new government will continue the present foreign policy in the larger national interest. When someone in his position expresses such a hope we all know what it means. It sounds more like an ominous growl than anything milder.

The contours of domestic and foreign policy are thus set. No civilian upstart dare disturb them. Nor, to be fair to the civilian hopefuls, is anyone thinking on those lines. The great thing about Gen Musharraf's democracy is that the political parties are willing to play the game on his terms. They took part in the elections much on his terms. They'll play the democracy game on the military's wages.

So what are we seeing in Islamabad? A veritable stampede of dummies. Take all the names and my meaning becomes clearer. Jamali, Leghari, Fahim, even the fetching Zubeda Jalal. Everyone fits the bill admirably. Gen Musharraf has a surfeit of choices. He must agonize over his decision, for he has so many willing puppets to choose from.

Is this then a transfer of power that will put our generals' hearts on edge? It's more a pantomime and a charade, a theatre of the absurd, than anything involving a real change of scene or players. The same thing dressed up in other colours. What are the political hopefuls then hoping to achieve?

Gen Musharraf's favourite party the Q League at least has the virtue of being clear in its aims. As the B team of the military government it wants a share of power, no matter what the terms, no matter how big the humiliation involved.

Banking upon the support of its patrons, it is hoping to form governments wherever it can. Punjab is already in its grasp, Punjab's peculiar destiny through the ages being to fall into the worst hands. In the National Assembly the Q League is the largest party with many hopefuls - all fulfilling the dummy requirement admirably - eyeing the prime ministership. But what about the other parties? What are they playing for?

The Mullahs of the MMA are understandably keen to translate their impressive showing in the elections into some form of power. But they can do so only if they learn to respect the limits of their independence. They can talk as much as they want about co-education in schools and the proper place of women - the two issues which, for some odd reason, lost no doubt in the mists of Freudianism, always agitate them the most. But beyond a line their anti-Americanism will not be allowed to go.

Already the big guns of the MMA are loudly proclaiming their moderation before the foreigner community in Islamabad. That's the way it is going to be. The MMA set on the path of responsibility and moderation, its sharper teeth gradually sacrificed to the requirements of pragmatism.

The army command made a strategic choice when it hitched its wagon to America's star after September 11.

The unwritten pact entered into with the US had two sides to it. (1) That Pakistan would go the whole hog with the Americans. (2) That the US, while paying Pakistan for its services, would look at the shortcomings of Pakistani democracy through friendly eyes.

That arrangement which underwrites the stability of the Musharraf order still holds. Nothing can be allowed to disturb it. The sooner the clerics understand this the less heartburn they'll suffer.

But if this much is clear about the Q League and the MMA, much less is clear about the PPP which is being pulled in opposite directions. In their hearts its more sensible leaders know that given the constraints under which any government will operate, their best bet is to remain on the opposition benches.

But the PPP also has an interest in smoothing Benazir Bhutto's return to Pakistan and in springing her husband Asif Zardari from prison. These considerations are pushing the party to nurse illusions about a grand alliance at the centre which would give it a share in decision-making. A principled position thus lies at odds with the temptations of expediency.

Gen Musharraf can be forgiven for relishing this confusion. The election outcome could well have been different if the political parties had shown greater sense - by burying their differences and putting up a united front.

But the PPP and the PML-N couldn't think big, couldn't get out of their small skins. They played for small stakes and have been rewarded for their timidity by the split verdict of these elections. They'll have a long time on their hands to mull over their mistakes.

I don't buy the theory that this National Assembly is likely to prove short-lived. Why? It suits the military to a tee. It suits Musharraf personally. Why should he do anything to cut its life short? A military ruler finally embarking upon a journey of transition doesn't always get a National Assembly so close to his heart's desire.

As for the political parties, they don't want to upset the apple cart. They just want a place near the fire. No risk of confrontation from that quarter either. So we might just be in for a period of stability, but on the military's terms and with the status quo prolonged into the future. Not a very inspiring prospect but perhaps the only one vouchsafed by our present circumstances.

It says something for our crossed stars that after three long years at the helm this is the best that Musharraf and his generals should be able to offer to the nation. By this time we should have been out of the woods, the army where it belongs and the country marching to a more rousing tune. All we have instead is more of the same: the same lack of creativity that was the hallmark of the military order now dressed in civilian clothes.

Who says these elections are a fresh beginning? With every passing day they seem more like another journey into the past.