THE ancient Chinese, attached as they were to the status quo, had a curse unique to their culture: "May you live in exciting times!"
We in Pakistan seem to have called this malediction on our heads almost from the inception of our state. Hardly a day passes without some fresh turmoil and confusion. Indeed, our leaders seem to possess a natural talent to conjure up crises out of thin air. In earlier days, brief periods of surface calm prevailed when the army was in power. But now, even our current crop of generals have succumbed to the national habit of creating a mountain out of a molehill.
Take the recent crackdown to prevent the May Day rally planned by the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) as an example. For a week before the event, the police had been arresting opposition leaders and workers by the hundreds, creating an impression of a grave national emergency. Foreign media across the world have been reporting these arrests, making people abroad think we are in the midst of a major political crisis.
At home, the reality is very different: a ragtag opposition is trying desperately to breathe some life into their pro-democracy campaign, but given a high degree of public apathy, they are having little luck. Instead of allowing the ARD to be exposed for a paper tiger, the military regime has chosen to go for a policy of overkill that has given rise to an impression of a desperate government clinging on to power in the face of a strong and organised opposition.
Against this backdrop, it becomes easier to understand the reasons underlying a fall of 74% in foreign investment reported in this newspaper last week. As it is, Pakistan is struggling against the negative investment climate created by the presence of a military government; the foreign currency accounts freeze imposed by Nawaz Sharif; the sanctions slapped on Pakistan following the nuclear tests three years ago; the war like sounds emanating from Kashmir; and our support for the Taliban.
Instead of trying to soothe international public opinion, the government has chosen to arrest hundreds of political activists to prevent a peaceful rally from taking place. On the other hand, the Deoband group was permitted to hold a huge religious gathering recently while the breakaway wing of the Muslim League was free to hold a public meeting in Islamabad. Unfortunately, bureaucrats and generals are unaware of the impact of these policies and actions abroad.
According to their narrow thinking, they can insulate their ham-handed treatment of the opposition here from Pakistan's image abroad. Welcome to the real world: a single small headline about mass arrests in London's daily Telegraph or the New York Times, or images of the crackdown in the BBC or CNN can cost millions of dollars in lost investments and cancelled reservations by such overseas visitors who are brave enough to venture to our shores.
Our rulers have not come to terms with a vastly smaller world as a result of instant communications via radio, satellite television and the Internet. For them, the well-worn and shop-soiled mantra of "our internal affair" is enough to ward off international criticism and its fallout.
In today's global economic climate, bilateral aid and soft loans are rapidly dwindling. Multilateral agencies like the IMF and the World Bank have stringent conditionalities, and private banks charge a high interest rate for loans. The only realistic route to development for poor countries is to attract foreign direct investment in industry as well as the social and physical infrastructure.
But before investing, foreigners want a secure return on their capital as well as security for their staff. In Pakistan, we can guarantee neither: the long drawn-out face-off between Hubco, the giant power project set up by a consortium of Saudi, British and Japanese investors and the Pakistan government has ensured that very few foreigners will risk their money in a country where courts generally rule in favour of the government.
And the murder of four Texas Union employees in broad daylight in Karachi four years ago has given us the reputation of being a pretty lawless country. The repeated threats against western citizens and interests by religious fanatics has not helped repair this damage.
Apart from security, all investors whether local or foreign need continuity of policies, even if they are bad policies. In Japan, there have been eleven prime ministers in the last twelve years. This change of faces has not altered the broad parameters of economic and fiscal policies, and the Japanese economy has been chugging along, albeit in low gear currently owing to a prolonged recession and factors other than change of leadership.
In Pakistan, a change in government causes not just the removal of a few top politicians and bureaucrats but the wholesale scrapping of policies. This has a profoundly unsettling effect on the investment climate as one group of businessmen is identified with a political rival and is therefore harried, and policies changed to damage their interests. The Wapda chairman may take pride in having forced Hubco to reduce their tariff by a cent or so, thereby saving his organization several crores.
However, he has inflicted damage worth hundreds of millions of dollars in lost investments to the national economy. Unfortunately, being a serving general, he does not have to listen to advice from civilian cabinet ministers. But the damage has been done, and it will be a very brave or foolish investor who puts together a consortium like Hubco again.
The inherent lack of stability that we suffer from has therefore little to do with the form of government, and more to do with the maturity of our leaders whether they are in or out of uniform. Unfortunately, most of our leadership is out of sync with how the world works. For instance, the Islamic Ideology Council probably has no clue about the havoc it has caused by declaring interest unIslamic.
The government, by dithering and appointing committees and task forces instead of vigorously opposing this bizarre and unworkable decree, has caused more confusion here and abroad. Whenever our officials go abroad seeking fresh investments, they are immediately asked to clarify the government's position on this needlessly contentious issue. And so it goes...
In brief, Pakistan has enough problems to contend with as it is. Must our leaders create even more crises for themselves and the rest of us?