Pak-China relationship
WITH the West preoccupied with the financial meltdown and our Middle Eastern allies thus far baulking at providing an emergency economic lifeline, President Asif Ali Zardari’s state visit to China has assumed added significance. Separating hype from reality, however, reveals a more complex picture. Let’s begin with what Pakistan currently needs most: money — approximately $3-4bn in the next quarter and $7-10bn over the next year. China has the cash (its reserves are nearing $2tr) but handouts are not its favoured mechanism to shore up friends and allies. Perhaps it is with this in mind that the president is seeking a soft loan of only $500m to $1.5bn according to The Financial Times. Beyond short-term cash, however, the economic and security possibilities are limitless, though there remain significant hurdles. On the economic front, a free trade agreement signed in 2006 aims to increase bilateral trade to $15bn by 2011 (it was less than $2bn at the start of the century). Pakistan’s export strategy emphasises its agricultural base: cotton yarn and fabric, grain, fruit, vegetables and leather. Minerals are another emphasis. This is a sensible policy given the relative strengths of the Pakistan economy.
On the investment side, Chinese capital is being sought across a range of industries, from manufacturing to construction and automobiles to telecommunications. The power sector — from exploiting coal reserves to building new dams to setting up nuclear power plants — is critical to Pakistan’s future, and the Chinese are expected to play a big role in whatever energy policy we decide to pursue. Now to the problems. The Chinese are an extremely security-conscious nation and Pakistan’s record of protecting their nationals is problematic. The recent kidnapping of two Chinese engineers by militants has once again highlighted the danger to the nearly 3,000 Chinese engineers, technicians and entrepreneurs in the country. The threat is not only from Islamic militants; in Balochistan, Chinese working on infrastructure projects face threats from nationalist militants. Terrorism in mainland China is also an issue of great concern for the Chinese authorities. Partially to address the terrorism threat emanating from the Central Asian republics on its borders, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was set up in 2001. Pakistan was granted observer status in 2006, and China remains concerned about the links between Islamic militants in Pakistan and in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, which is where the Karakoram Highway terminates in China. However, the Indo-US nuclear deal will force a rethink of the regional security equation in Islamabad and Beijing, and may even act as an impetus for closer economic ties. Closer defence partnerships, such as in the JF-17 multi-role fighter aircraft, and purchase of Chinese planes and frigates will also help pull the two countries closer. If used sensibly, security concerns can act as a springboard for greater economic cooperation.
Fight against polio
THE battle against polio has entered its 14th year but it is still beset by difficulties. Pakistan is one of the few countries where polio, eradicated from most of the developed world, still exists and is in fact showing a resurgence. The health authorities have been conducting regular anti-polio drives in several parts of the country but tremendous challenges remain. For instance, about 40,000 children were not administered anti-polio drops in the last vaccination campaign conducted in August in the NWFP and Fata because their parents would not allow it. Their reluctance stems from baseless rumours spread by clerics and militants that the drops cause impotency and infertility, as well as similarly misinformed decrees that vaccination is ‘un-Islamic’. Not only is it difficult for vaccinators to reach remote areas in the north, they face a volatile security situation that often puts their lives at risk. In going to far-flung areas, vaccinators also have to be extremely careful in maintaining the right storage temperature so that the efficacy of the drops is not affected.
The problem of displaced persons has also contributed to a rise in the number of polio cases. The influx of Afghan refugees means that a large segment of the population may not have been vaccinated. Many of the cases found in Pakistan are concentrated in areas adjoining the Durand Line. As the monitoring agency, the World Health Organisation oversees the dispensation of the vaccine in the border areas and camps. But if refugees stay on the move it is a strenuous task to keep track of them. Internally displaced persons may also be contributing to spreading the disease from the tribal areas to the cities. In order to combat polio, Pakistan and Afghanistan must coordinate efforts to reach all the children who are crossing borders or are displaced and live in camps. The fight against polio should include countering the smear campaign against the drops through the provision of correct information. Not only should the authorities ensure that vaccinators have the facilities needed to reach remote areas, the administration of the drops should also be carried out in the prescribed manner. A slight error in dispensing the vaccine can render the drops ineffective. It is also believed that before the polio vaccine is administered it must be ascertained that the child in question is not suffering from another infection. Immunisation should reach every child living in Pakistan in order to achieve complete elimination of the disease.
Ulema’s equivocation
TUESDAY’S fatwa by an ulema conference condemning suicide bombing as un-Islamic is not the first of its kind in Pakistan or abroad. However, it stands out for its equivocation. Representing a cross-section of clerics, the Lahore moot of the Muttahida Ulema Council also declared that individuals did not have the right to declare a jihad and that it was only the government which could do this. Coming at a time when a suicide bomber strikes every other day, this aspect of the MUC decree deserves to be welcomed. There is no doubt the concept of a Muslim doing his duty to ‘do good and suppress evil’ has been misinterpreted and misused to itself become a source of evil. Now every misguided militant thinks he can blow up a girls’ school or a relief agency office to do his ‘duty’ as a Muslim. This perversion of an otherwise noble concept has led to the formation of militant organisations which think they can spread terror and kill innocent men, women and children ‘to do good’. Either by design or by default, the fatwa restricts itself to suicide bombings and does not cover the whole range of acts of terrorism in which means other than suicide bombing are employed to cause havoc. Couched in language lacking clarity, the fatwa shows the participants’ reluctance to come out categorically against terrorism and condemn those who murder the innocent in the name of Islam. The MUC resolution also carefully avoids a reference to the Taliban or Al Qaeda.
The fatwa criticises the government’s anti-terrorism strategy. That is the MUC’s opinion and it is entitled to it. Many political parties, enlightened sections of society and the media also criticise the government for resorting to force in a manner in which civilians too get killed. But there is a difference between acts of terrorism and military operations. In the latter there is collateral damage, however repugnant it may be, but suicide bombings and acts of terrorism deliberately target public places full of civilians. The MUC skirts this vital question, betraying perhaps a soft corner for those who believe in shedding innocent blood as a matter of policy.
OTHER VOICES - Middle East Press
Education gets pricey
Khaleej Times
EDUCATION, a fundamental right of all children, is not just becoming expensive in the UAE but is also fast becoming a pricey commodity. Quality education is increasingly slipping out of reach for most residents. Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (DCCI) … revelation on Sunday that more and more expatriates are sending their children back home because they cannot afford to educate them in the UAE should come as no surprise to many. According to the DCCI findings, secondary education costs increased by 25 per cent in 2008 and 15 per cent in 2007, while primary education costs went up by 19 per cent in 2008.
For an emirate witnessing explosive growth compounded with a burgeoning expatriate population, businesses (read private education) have also grown to keep pace. An estimated 55,475 students from 43 private schools in Dubai alone were impacted by higher tuition fees this year. A negative growth in the 10 to 19 age group only underscores the fact that families…are sending their children back to their home countries.
…those sending children home will not escape the emotional and psychological cost of such a decision. — (Oct 13)
Rebel in new mask
Oman Tribune
IN its running battle with the Tamil Tigers, the Sri Lankan government has made a lot of gains over the years. The fact that the army is now within two kilometres of the LTTE headquarters, Kilinochchi, is no mean feat considering the efficiency of the rebel group… However, the Sinhalese establishment’s masterstroke in recent times has been the swearing-in of former Tamil Tiger rebel commander Vinayagamoorthi Muralitharan, better known by his nom de guerre of Col. Karuna Amman. Four years ago, Karuna broke away from the ranks of Velupillai Prabhakaran’s LTTE when he was the Eastern commander. The swearing-in marks the rebirth of a man accused of rights abuses who has also served time in a UK jail this year….
All is fair in love and war, as they say. It is definitely a victory of sorts for the government which is out to prove there are moderates among the militants in the Tamil camp, that there are rebels who can see a point in the government’s position. That Karuna is on the side of the government is clear. Time alone will tell whether Karuna remains on the side of peace and genuine welfare of the Tamils. — (Oct 11)
All roads lead to nowhere
FOR the second day of Eid, Oct 2 was shockingly dreary and listless. Most Eid greeting text messages received lukewarm, and in some cases outright cold, replies replete with remarks that bordered on unremitting cynicism.
With bombs and bullets doing the talking and knives slitting throats, friends and acquaintances ridiculed even a semblance of celebration and insisted on maintaining a resolute calm.
As the day advanced towards the afternoon, the forced stupor was pierced by the news of a suicide bomb attack on the guesthouse of ANP leader Asfandyar Wali. The terrorists had finally succeeded in their designs. They were aiming to hit where they knew it would hurt the most and that place would be no other than Pushkaravati, the modern Charsadda and capital of the ancient Gandhara civilisation. Charsadda had another distinction; it was the birthplace in this part of pre-partition India of the non-violence movement led by Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, Asfandyar’s grandfather.
With its vast and beautiful countryside resplendent under the spell of millennia of meditation and a fast-ripening sugarcane crop, Charsadda need not have posted sentinels in the presence of towering poplars. But there was no stopping the modern-day terrorists who consider history, tradition and culture anathema to their brand of religion and are battling them all at one time. They had done it before on an Eid day last year, killing and maiming dozens of those found guilty of praying alongside Aftab Sherpao at his village in Charsadda. Both Sherpao and Asfandyar Wali survived but it would seem only just.
The patriarch of the present provincial government, Asfandyar Wali seems to have been unnerved by the attack. His initial reaction was one of a wounded lion but his subsequent conduct left much to find fault with. This couldn’t have happened at a more inopportune time. The militants had trampled on too many toes and deprived many of their bread and butter. ‘Uprising’ is the call of the day and more and more people are rallying to the call in earnest. Even strong protagonists of a dialogue with the militants have been observed appreciating the willingness of the masses to take the enemy head-on. The ANP leader would be the ultimate choice of the tormented masses to lead from the front. The ANP could be billed for many sins but this party of the great Khans has not yet been faulted for timidity. Unfortunately, however, the events unfolding in the aftermath of the latest Charsadda attack suggest a departure from the path of the past.
The voracious appetite of the enemy could be one reason. But even long before the attack on Asfandyar Wali’s household, the powers that be were doing little that could inspire confidence in the public. By building roadblocks, walling thoroughfares and barring the public from public offices, the state apparatus seems to be surrendering one territory after another to the terrorists. Terrorism thrives on fear and fear is what we are trying to spread by denying access to the public. The closure of roads and avenues around the seats and symbols of governance is akin to tightening the noose around those seized with the task of governance. In the process the government seems to be insulating itself from the public with an irreparable loss to its image in the popular perception.
“The ways of bureaucracy are wonderful,” wrote Dervla Murphy in her riveting travelogue, Where the Indus is Young. In a dozen countries that she visited, the intrepid travel writer solemnly inscribed fictitious passport numbers in the appropriate columns without ever suffering any ill effects. Ms Murphy’s witty impressions suitably reflect the scene in Pakistan. Entrances to the corridors of power are under close surveillance but who knows how many Ms Murphys and her male equivalents might be penetrating the apparently unbreakable walls of security day in and day out and then making fun of this entire hullabaloo that we make about our conceited efforts.
The ultimate sufferers nevertheless are ordinary folks. More than 160 million people inhabit this country. They have to move from one place to another. How could we limit or curtail their movement from home to work and back, to hospitals, bazaars and schools, and to a lesser extent to parks and public places of amusement, if there are any left.
The situation in Peshawar is particularly fragile. Peshawar has grown in every direction in such a manner that nearly all roads to various parts of the city, the university area and onward to Hayatabad township lead through the cantonment. The military cantonment itself houses the civil secretariat, the accountant general’s office, the telephone, gas and Public Service Commission offices, as well as the old Edwards College. Thousands of people frequent these places on essential errands.
Unsavoury incidents are a routine sight on the roads leading to these institutions, with dozens of motorists arguing with the sentries every minute of the day. The sentries’ dilemma is that they cannot deny access to any motorist since that would necessitate pushing back all the vehicles taking up the rear. Any mishap during such interruptions could be catastrophic and to the liking of the terrorists. There is no way this situation can be wished away unless all city residents disappear from the scene.
Fortunately, however, both the military and the civilians have realised how badly they need each other to outwit the joint enemy. All these roads, presently leading to nowhere, must therefore be reopened to set the direction of the war on terror right. Asfandyar Wali can lead the way in his red cap.
Galbraith saw this coming
ONE hundred years ago today (Oct 15), one of the intellectual titans of the 20th century was born. Had the warnings issued by JK Galbraith up until his death two years ago been better heeded by the policymakers of today, it seems unlikely we would find ourselves so deep in the economic mire.
A lifelong liberal who advised successive Democratic presidents and presidential candidates, Galbraith ceaselessly warned of the dangers of financial excess. In his extensive writings — most famously The Great Crash 1929 — Galbraith described the common events that precede and accompany particular financial crises, events that are conveniently forgotten by politicians, regulators and their advisers in the good times, when financial deregulation takes grip.
Galbraith, like Keynes before him, identified the instability of modern capitalism in terms of the drive to accumulate excessive wealth and the fragile nature of the financial system. As Galbraith remarked, all stock market bubbles exhibit “seemingly imaginative, currently lucrative, and eventually disastrous innovation in financial structures”. Galbraith argued that an unfettered, competitive capitalist system, operating on pure free-market principles, was inherently cyclical and unstable, requiring robust regulation and active government.
Starting with the tulip bulb mania in the 1630s, bubble after speculative bubble has been erased from the popular memory: the South Sea bubble in the early 1700s; the Mississippi bubble, which caused a stock market crash in 18th-century France; the Florida real estate bubble in the 1920s; the stock market crash of 1929; the stock market crash of 1987; the Nikkei bubble, which began in 1991, and the Nasdaq bubble of 2000. These episodes share a theme: a perceived fundamental change in the economy arouses euphoria and heightened expectations of return, leading to excess, fraud and collapse.
This pattern underpinned the folly of sub-prime lending. The expansion in business activity feeds entrepreneurial and speculative behaviour in the financial sectors. It drives monetary innovation and the new forms of financing structures that are contrived to allow firms to participate in the boom.
Heightened expectations stimulate a credit boom, with the banking system keen to cash in on the new situation. As Galbraith remarked in his book, Money: “The banks, needless to say, provided the money that financed the speculation that in each case preceded the crash.”
As Galbraith and Keynes before him warned, such speculation inevitably leads to euphoria or overtrading in which rising asset prices encourage speculative excess. As debt accumulates, soon it can only be serviced by the issue of new liabilities. As long as the financial markets are booming, it is possible to sustain low levels of cash inflow by issuing new stocks and securities to finance current liabilities. But when the hangover comes it hits hard.
When the financial markets slow their expansion, organisations that have covered their future liabilities through issuing more debt are forced to sell assets to meet their liabilities.
The flurry of action by governments and central banks around the world in recent days suggests that Galbraith’s works have finally been pored over by politicians. The experience of the 1930s must be avoided. On the 100th anniversary of Galbraith’s birth, his words matter more than ever.
— The Guardian, London