The west must be won

GO east, says the foreign minister. A stronger presence there will boost trade and investment. Yes, but don’t forget about the west would have been the parting advice of the petroleum minister. Unlike that other PPP–PML-N dispute, the Janus-like coalition approach to matters economic was in fact welcome.

The reason is that another skeleton is set to tumble out of the national closet in 2010, prolonging the era of shortages: the country is running low on natural gas. As demand increases, production declines and reserves are depleted, the current winter shortage in the north will grow into a full blown national crisis in the next few years. And with half of our energy needs supplied by gas and one-third of gas production used to generate electricity, the anticipated shortfall will scuttle Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s plan to re-orientate our economy. You can’t attract investment or export much if your energy sector is in terminal decline.

Khwaja Asif thought he had the solution and had been busy looking west — regionally, not in the global sense — to save the country’s gas network from redundancy. Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar, all endowed with abundant gas reserves, are being wooed to give Pakistan an energy lifeline into the middle of this century.

The case of Turkmenistan is especially interesting. The last time the Central Asian republic made a splash in Pakistan it was the mid-1990s and the Taliban were in control of Afghanistan. The Dauletabad gas field in the southeast of Turkmenistan was being eyed hungrily by the CentGas consortium, led by American Unocal, which was set up to figure out a way to pump gas across Afghanistan and into Pakistan, and perhaps beyond. However, negotiations with the Taliban proved difficult and security elusive. When Unocal pulled the plug on CentGas in December 1998, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (Tap) pipeline was shelved and Turkmenistan quickly dropped off Pakistan’s radar.

Turkmenistan, meanwhile, remained another Soviet-era oddity, best known for its eccentric, autocratic leader who ruled for 21 years until his death in 2006. Amongst President Saparmurat Niyazov’s stranger decrees was the replacement of the Hippocratic Oath with one where doctors had to swear to him and re-naming the calendar to include months named after himself and his mother. Eccentricity coupled with absolute power is dangerous — when Niyazov ordered shut all hospitals outside the capital Asghabat in 2005, 90 per cent of the population was deprived of access to immediate healthcare.

On the gas front, Turkmenistan’s most valuable commodity was supplied to Russia through a pipeline network owned by Gazprom, the Russian energy behemoth. Foreign investors were kept out and hydrocarbon reserves remained poorly tapped. However, Niyazov’s successor, elected in February 2007, promised to explore new energy partnerships. As part of that promise, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov pulled the Tap project out of steering-committee desultoriness last month, rekindling hopes of gas flows from the middle of the next decade.

Most enthusiastic about Tapi (the pipeline’s new, longer acronym after the inclusion of India), seemingly more than the participating countries themselves, have been the US and the Asian Development Bank. But even if the US is only out to thwart the other pipeline in the news — the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) ‘peace’ pipeline — its support should not be scoffed at. The $7.6bn Tapi price tag will not be financed easily without US and ADB support. Nevertheless, caution is in order for other reasons as Pakistan joins the scramble for Central Asian gas alongside Russia, Europe, China and the US.

For one, Russia has the upper hand in Turkmenistan. Last December, President Berdymukhammedov signed a deal with the Kremlin that will ensure that most of Turkmenistan’s gas supplies would flow through Russia and onwards to Europe.

The agreement was a personal triumph for Vladmir Putin, who outflanked the EU and the US and their plan for an alternative Caspian Sea pipeline that would bypass Russia and pump gas directly into Europe. The stakes are enormously high as the EU is dependent on Russia for a quarter of its gas, a fact that makes Europe and the US very uncomfortable.

The Turkmenistan-Russian deal has left the future of other pipelines in doubt though. Whatever the Tapi folk tell you, it’s not at all clear whether Turkmenistan will have enough gas left over after meeting its Russian commitments. Which is the second issue: the Turkmen reserves are a national secret and third-party confirmation of the reserves in the Dauletabad field, which has been in production since 1983, is pending.

Indeed, an ADB-commissioned survey has cast doubt on the field’s potential to feed the Tapi pipeline for 25-30 years, a timeframe necessary to make the project viable. Turkmenistan will not have Dauletabad’s reserves verified until at least September, before which talk of Tapi is decidedly premature.

Thirdly, while security fears in Afghanistan and Balochistan — Tapi will skirt around the mountains in Afghanistan through the west and south via Herat and Kandahar and pass through Quetta before arriving at the India-Pakistan border near Pakpattan — have dominated the headlines, Turkmenistan has not been the most reliable of business partners elsewhere.

At the start of the year, Turkmenistan shut off gas supplies to northern Iran at the peak of winter, sparking an angry reaction in Tehran. Turkmenistan claimed the stoppage was due to pipeline damage, but it was really holding out for a higher price. In reality, after Turkmenistan negotiated a higher price with Russia, which re-exports Turkmen gas to the EU at a significant mark-up, the Iranian deal was all but dead at existing prices. Iran surrendered to the inevitable in April and agreed to the price increase demanded.

By any measure, Khwaja Asif had his hands full in trying to piece together our energy jigsaw and align political, financial and output criteria. The IPI pipeline is politically and financially a difficult proposition, but output isn’t a problem because Iran’s reserves are vast. The Qatar solution is also not a problem politically, but the LNG tanker and pipeline options are expensive and Qatar’s commitments elsewhere make its ability to satisfy Pakistani demand doubtful. Tapi is politically and financially possible thanks to US-ADB support, but there is a serious question mark over the availability of gas.

Yet these three western solutions are the principal options Pakistan has to meet its gas requirements in the medium term. The petroleum ministry is far from a poisoned chalice though, for whoever takes over will have the opportunity of a lifetime: navigate the complex regional energy map with flair and Pakistan’s energy security may be guaranteed for decades. Go west, minister, so that we can go east.

cyril.a@gmail.com

A semblance of democracy

WHAT do Abe Lincoln, John F. Kennedy, Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi have in common? All were tragically assassinated at the peak of their political careers. Did they leave a will behind, anointing their successor? The question is preposterous!

Wills and bloodlines belong to the age of monarchies, pre-modern and medieval. Successive generations of a family may have an enduring appeal in the popular mind, like the Kennedys, Nehrus and Bhuttos; but they have to prove their mettle and earn their spurs in political struggles and on the hustings. So while Bobby ran for the presidency, Ted Kennedy couldn’t make it because of Chappaquiddick.

Rahul, years after the assassination of his father, is still only an MP. Sonia has been elected leader of the Congress party, but in a statesman-like gesture, chose not to take the office of the prime minister. While she may carry a great deal of influence in the Congress party, Manmohan Singh runs the government; he is no figurehead or a dummy.

Political parties are the weakest link of the Pakistani political system. Run on patronage and influenced by the biradari system, they are pervaded by a courtier culture. This would explain why the parties are content to leave all important decisions to the so-called ‘rahbar’ or ‘quaid’, as if he were the repository of all wisdom.

At times, the status of this leader is equated with that of a pir, a religious leader, to whom is owed blind loyalty. In civilised democracies, leaders of political parties are elected, not nominated, often after a hard-fought contest between contenders for the party leadership. Brilliant and talented as Gordon Brown was, he had to wait his turn for over a decade because Blair had more support within the Labour Party. This concept of an open election, not only for the leader of the party but even for various party offices, is quite rare in Pakistan.

Nor are the claims of sovereignty of parliament justified in our case: as for that, the prime minister and his cabinet must be responsible to the parliament. Hence the importance of question and answers, debate and discussion in the House. Since the parties have no tradition of taking responsible positions on issues, parliament has never brought down a government, no matter how irresponsibly it has behaved.

At times, it involves voting against one’s own government, commonly referred to as the backbencher’s revolt. The only way open to the country to get rid of the government is through the exercise of Article 58-2(b) by the president, a weapon that has been used ad nauseum in our turbulent history.

This situation of a weak parliament has been made dysfunctional after the Feb 18 general elections because all major policy decisions are being taken by unelected leaders outside the parliament, be it the judicial crisis or issues of foreign policy.

Democracy is not about casting votes every five years, and then suffering the unchecked fiat of the elected majority until the next elections; it is about the responsibility of the government to parliament. This is what gives sovereignty to the parliament. How is the current dispensation different from the previous one? If before Feb 18 the prime minister was deferring to the president for every major decision, the incumbent prime minister’s role is even more marginal.

With the elections came hope that there would be a strengthening of institutions of the state. But as negotiations over the restoration of the judiciary drag on, at issue is their independence; restoration is only a step towards ensuring that. If all manipulations and negotiations result in the government ensuring that it has a pliant chief justice and judiciary, then the restoration will be in name only, and not in substance.

The effectiveness of the government depends on the integrity and effectiveness of the bureaucracy. The British ruled India for 200 years, because of the dedication and efficiency of its bureaucracy, often referred to as its ‘steel frame’. One of the first steps of the new administration has been to bring back some of the tainted and discredited bureaucrats. As if this were not bad enough, the foreign secretary was unceremoniously dispatched, just a month before his retirement. His sin was that he had spoken for the national, rather than the ‘party’, interest.

The treatment meted out to the foreign secretary was also a message to the bureaucracy: fall in line or face the consequences. It is the bureaucracy which provides continuity to the state while politicians come and go. It is their job to guide the political government as to the pros and cons of policy decisions, and it is again a sad commentary on our leadership that either they do not understand this or do not wish to.

If a pliant judiciary is installed, and the bureaucracy browbeaten into submission, the responsibility will increasingly fall on the media to become guardians of the public interest. Those who argue that the people are only concerned with issues of ‘roti, kapra aur makan’, and not with issues as esoteric as the independence of the judiciary, are out of step with the new Pakistan.

From the time of the caliphs to the Mughals, ‘adal’ or justice has been the cornerstone of good and popular governments. Democracy is a latecomer, a product of 18th century Europe. People understand and appreciate justice, as oppression and injustice is an everyday occurrence in their lives. The media has played the role of a bridge between the aspirations and struggle of the intelligentsia and the ordinary people, especially in explaining the relevance of an independent judiciary.

History has come full circle with the euphemistically called National Reconciliation Ordinance since the raison d’être for the military takeover was accountability. As we lurch towards a semblance of democracy, it is important to realise that with a supine parliament and political parties which lack a democratic ethos, other institutions of the state, like civil society, the media and the legal community, have to be more, not less, assertive. In modern liberal political thought, the ultimate sovereignty lies with the people, and they have the right to resist when the government breaks their trust.

The energy of hope

THROUGH the spectrum of misleading slogans and glamorous extravaganzas we see a world concentrating on a ‘feel-good industry’ which should not be confused with hope. These are just a directionless flash in the pan compared to hope, which is a smouldering powerhouse that can alter the course of history.

Memorable writings, be they for print or films have often nurtured hope, as the spiritual, intellectual, physical and social force that transforms the critical particle of the human brain from inertia to vitality. One such film was ‘Freedom Writers’ which highlights a kind of freedom we need to find within ourselves to be free from personal biases and from the fear of not having control over our lives.

The story set in a large city of the US, the venue for the great social experiment of a cultural melting pot of the 20th century, unfolds in the English-language class of a public school where integration has brought together a motley bunch of low-income and racially diverse students. With them enter all the tensions of the street where ethnic minorities live with few civil rights and fewer worldly possessions. The group desperately safeguards its cultural and racial loyalties in a landscape fractured by gang wars fought among blacks, Hispanics and Koreans.

The young white English-language teacher brought up on stories of the civil rights activism of her father dares to dream of making a difference in her ‘integrated class’ under the cynical gaze of the school management that is indifferent to the present, past and future of their wards.

The viewer walks through the frustrating early weeks with the teacher as she is stonewalled with silence and distrust. Then a turning point comes when she intercepts a caricature of a black person being passed around and tells them how dangerous racism has been in recent history. After which she asks them to identify the biggest racist gang in history only to discover that, except for one, none of the students have heard of the Holocaust.

Violence runs through the film like a subtext that connects history to the lived experiences of the young people in class. One of the most poignant moments of the film is when the teacher discovers how almost 50 per cent of the students have lost at least four friends to gang violence. Some have even had their comrades die in their arms.

To give their experience a voice and brush up writing skills the students are assigned to write a page everyday which, the teacher promises, would remain private. When they do allow her to read their stories she finds them full of unbelievable brutality and hardship.

A student is traumatised by the experience of being evicted from his home as a child and lives in the fear of a life on the street. Another saw her mother battered to death by an abusive parent and is left with the responsibility of a younger sibling. One teenager who was thrown out of the house by his mother when he joined a gang under peer pressure now lives in a cardboard house and yearns for his mother’s affection.

In class is a witness — torn between the truth and race loyalty — to the murder of a classmate shot by her friend. Many children mention siblings, parents and friends behind bars.

On the journey to self-discovery, Anne Frank’s Diary is used as a tool to inculcate empathy for someone who has been a greater victim of racism, fear and persecution. The students move beyond their differences as they are bonded by the common mission to meet the surviving member of the family that gave Anne Frank refuge. Their vigorous effort to raise funds to make this possible serves as a further cementing factor as they strive to meet the greater objective.

The survivor, an elderly lady, travels down from Europe and is received with awe by the students. She tells them she did what she felt was only right at that time when they protected Anne Frank’s family but regretted that she was forced to reveal their hiding place when a gun was held by a German soldier to her head. The students’ spontaneous response is to call her their hero and she returns the compliment by informing them that it was their stories sent by the teacher that had persuaded her to make the transatlantic journey. She calls them her heroes.

At this moment of synergy, a vision of hope can be seen entering the students’ lives to give them the strength to overcome their personal crisis. Recognising the stories as the principal empowering factor that freed them from their prison of fear and prejudice the teacher suggests they be printed in an anthology and they give it the title ‘Freedom Writers’.

If we listen carefully, similar voices emanate from the headlines of our broadsheets and news channels. They find resonance in the experiences of Pakistan’s children in villages and cities; the survivors of suicide bombs, whose lives as victims, witnesses and children of the dead, have been altered forever; Wafa the girl from Wana, who spoke fearlessly in a TV interview about children who have lost their sanity as they live in constant fear of bombs and displacement; the youth trapped in ethnic and sectarian flashpoints created by power players.

They also find resonance in the acid victims of hate that can never reclaim their pretty faces as their powerful assailants walk free; Jagdeesh, the 22-year Karachi labourer lynched by a communal mob that took the law into its own hands; and countless swara girl victims in Pukhtoonkhwa that are sometimes driven to suicide given the hopelessness of their lives.

This is the youth that lives on the fringe of our fractured society, whose lives we want to change but will never be able to, so long as we cling to our morally sterile models of modernity and tradition. It will be indicative of our failure that we are in danger of being burdened with all our lives if we do not find the key to unlock their potential with the energy of hope like the protagonists of the ‘Freedom Writers’.

The writer is art critic, independent curator and art activist.

asnaclay06@yahoo.com

Quake: China averse to any aid

PRESIDENT George Bush Monday offered to help China deal with the aftermath of its earthquake, including sharing detailed images of the devastated region taken by its spy satellites.

In a White House statement, Bush said: “I am particularly saddened by the number of students and children affected by this tragedy. The United States stands ready to help in any way possible.”

European governments, including Britain, as well as the major international aid agencies are also ready to offer assistance, in spite of the pressures created by already trying to help with the aftermath of the Burmese cyclone.

Matthew Cochrane, a spokesman for the Geneva-based International Committee of the Red Cross, said: “It is too early to say how much international help might be needed.”

Beijing has not made any request for assistance from other governments or aid organisations. China, unlike Burma and other countries in the region, has the resources, manpower and sophisticated disaster response teams capable of handling the emergency on its own.

The Chinese government has sent its own national disaster team and national search and rescue team to the stricken towns and villages to support local relief teams.

Beijing mobilised nearly 8,000 soldiers and police to help with rescue operations in Sichuan province and put it on the second-highest level of emergency footing. The prime minister, Wen Jiabao, who flew to the Sichuan capital, Chengdu, to oversee relief operations, called the quake “a major geological disaster”.

An official at the US’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency said its analysts were examining pictures from the region. The satellite-borne cameras are powerful enough to show damage to bridges, buildings, railways and tunnels.

This is China’s most destructive earthquake since the Tangshan event in 1976 that killed more than 240,000 people. China, still largely closed to the West at the time, refused help, partly out of national pride and partly because it was unwilling to allow an influx of foreign workers.

The People’s Liberation Army, as well as training for war, spends more time than comparable forces elsewhere on civilian projects, particularly in preparing for such emergencies. The Red Cross has millions of volunteers throughout the country trained for disasters.

Cochrane said that a joint Chinese Red Cross and International Federation of the Red Cross team had flown from Beijing to the stricken area, but it had not yet reported back, partly because it had arrived during the night. Having to deal with Burma and China at the same time presented logistical challenges, he said, but the Red Cross had the resources.

A UN Security Council spokesman said: “There has been no sign of any request [from Beijing] yet.” The UN continued to focus on getting help to Burma, with aid being flown in.

A spokeswoman for the British government’s Department for International Development (Dfid) said it was monitoring the disaster in China but believed the country had the national capability to deal with it. Reflecting China’s self-sufficiency, she added that Dfid over the next few years would be cutting its staff and spending in China and diverting aid to poorer countries.

Gareth Owen, director of emergencies at “Save the Children”, said his organisation, which had a team on the ground in China, had been in touch with Beijing to offer help but China had not yet asked for assistance.

He said a Chinese disaster emergency team had visited Save the Children’s office in Britain this year and the staff there had been impressed by the efficiency and experience of the Chinese team.

He added that with any big natural disaster involving infrastructure it took time to assess the full extent of the damage.

China has already had to cope with the worst winter storms in 50 years, which hit southern and central regions just before the lunar new year began in February, anti-government riots in the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, in March, a train crash this month which left 72 dead and 400 injured, and an outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease that killed 39 children. ––The Guardian, London