LAHORE, June 17: While the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) has been quiet since declaring a 19.2 million tons wheat crop, evidence is pouring in from various directions and assessments that Pakistan is likely to revert to imports after briefly enjoying a surplus and exporting wheat because of a considerable shortfall in the estimated size of the recently harvested crop.
According to officials, the government was considering import of about 1-1.5 million tons of wheat to meet domestic needs, but no one is officially willing to admit this negative turn till the present point in time.
The argument likely to be offered is that the crop is sufficient but imports may be resorted to because Pakistan does not wish to lose markets found and established for wheat exports and balancing imports with exports would keep the country in the wheat exporter’s club.
A realistic review of the wheat output seems to have become difficult for MINFAL following the incorporation of its figures in the Economic Survey and budget for 2003-04. Both documents quoted, as per practice, the crop size as reported by MINFAL.
But positions taken by some officials at subsequent meetings on the subject supported the evaluation that wheat yield was considerably lower than estimates and declared statistics on output. Seed certification office is said to have conceded that every farmer in its contact had reported five to 10 maunds less produce this year. Officials privately concede that the crop is around at least two million tons below MINFAL’s announced count. That places it at around 17 million tons.
Irrefutable evidence of a scuttled wheat crop is available in the commodity’s price in the market. The price of a newly harvested crop tends to dip, but it has been rising this time and has reached about Rs350 per bag of 40 kg. The Punjab government’s elaborately organized procurement drive has fallen short of target as farmers have customers offering higher rates.
The US government has provided further proof of a crop shortfall by offering import of the US wheat by the private sector in Pakistan under USDA credit guarantee programme.
The USDA follows crops across the world through satellites and almost invariably, it have a clearer assessment of crops in the third world countries than the countries concerned themselves.
MINFAL used to request the USDA for satellite pictures on local crops not too far back in time for its use, but the practice followed by former secretary Dr Zafar Altaf was given up after his exit from the ministry. However, the USDA continues to keep a tab on crops internationally and tunes policies to exploit the information for the interest of the country’s farmers.
One of the factors contributing to shrunken yield has been lower use of fertilizer. Its application was reduced by small farmers by a prohibitive price at a time when growers needed it most. For instance, a 50-kg bag of DAP was available for Rs680 in January this year but its price rose to Rs840 by end February and March, forcing small farmers to restrict their DAP input to a minimum.
Other factors contributing to low yield have been prices of certified seed, weedicide and energy that have risen by about 100 per cent over the last four years in some cases, while support price of wheat has remained static during this period.
The low wheat yield is a sad comment on the efficiency and comprehension of the extension staff that had described rains as timely nourishment for the crop, but now cites whether conditions as a negative factor responsible for aphid attack, known to farmers as taila that undermined the crop. The situation suggests that things are seriously wrong with the management of crops by the officials concerned and makes their know-how for the job questionable.