Turkey may keep troops out of Iraq — for time being

ANKARA: Turkey, under heavy US pressure, appears to be retreating from any immediate plans to invade Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq while signalling it would act decisively against any future bid for a Kurdish state.

Washington fears a Turkish incursion into the area, under Kurdish control since the 1991 Gulf War, could trigger conflict with Kurdish groups and undermine US attempts to establish a northern front against Baghdad. Hundreds of US troops have parachuted into the area to help Kurdish fighters.

“The Americans have made it abundantly clear they do not want the Turks there and at this stage I don’t see the Turks wanting to goad Washington,” one Western diplomat said.

Turkey’s refusal to allow 62,000 US troops to cross Turkish soil to launch a second, northern front against Baghdad has greatly strained relations. The White House’s decision to offer up to $8.5 billion in war loans to cushion Turkey’s precariously balanced economy could yet help hold Ankara back.

A US Congress already sceptical of Turkey after the collapse of the northern front plan might, however, vote down the new loan.

The Turkish military, in any case, see strategic perils in northern Iraq ranging beyond the financial issues.

Kurdish fighters poured across what had been the Iraqi front line on Friday as Iraqi troops pulled back towards the Kirkuk oil fields. It was the first such move by Kurdish groups out of their enclave and will be watched nervously in Ankara.

Turkey fears Kurdish groups will, in return for helping US forces in the war, claim a stake in Kirkuk and Mosul oilfields as the financial foundation of a state. That, Ankara argues, would revive Kurdish armed separatism in southeastern Turkey and shake the foundations of Turkish statehood.

The Kurds and the US deny there is any such scheme.

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul was blunt in comments published in the Radikal daily, reminding Iraqi Kurds that Turkey had provided the air bases used by US and British warplanes to enforce the no-fly zone protecting the Kurdish enclave.

“Our warning to them (Iraqi Kurds) is this: Do not provoke Turkey unnecessarily. We have been providing their security for 12 years. We have given them all kinds of help, but no one should take Turkey lightly. Everyone should know this: Turkey is this region’s most important country. So everyone should get on with us.”

The harsh words follow comments by armed forces Chief of General Staff Hilmi Ozkok on Wednesday which diplomats said may mark a subtle but significant softening of Ankara’s position.

He said Turkey’s concerns focused on the marshaling of any refugee flow, guarding the Turkmen group Ankara sees as ethnic kin oppressed by Kurdish authorities and suppressing “terrorism” — a reference to Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels sheltering in the mountains there.

“I believe the Turkish armed forces could make a decision to send additional troops to northern Iraq if it is understood our forces already there are unable to handle such threats and dangers,” Ozkok said in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir.

Turkey was for the first time, it appeared, holding open the possibility that the Turkish forces already deployed in Iraq may be left without reinforcement, at least for now.

Turkey has anywhere between 3,000 and 17,000 troops in northern Iraq as part of operations conducted since the 1990s to battle Turkish Kurds ensconced in the mountains there. Parliament has approved plans to send in large numbers of extra troops to operate in a 20-km border buffer zone and, if necessary, beyond it.

US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad was expected to return to Ankara from northern Iraq in the early hours of Saturday in his continuing attempts to forge an agreement on Turkish-Kurdish cooperation that would exclude a Turkish incursion.

Diplomats said Turkey might take reassurance from any pledges by the Kurdish groups to crack down on PKK forces. Any final deal would probably incorporate such pledges that the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) would not absorb PKK elements but would oppose them.

Turkey may reluctantly desist from strengthening its forces in northern Iraq for now. But it will watch events closely and with a clear scepticism about US aims — and indeed ability — to control the course of events on Turkey’s doorstep.—Reuters

EU to launch first-ever military operation: DATELINE BRUSSELS

WITH world attention focused firmly on the US-led invasion of Iraq, European Union policymakers can expect little global interest in the launch of the bloc’s first-ever military operation in Macedonia on Monday.

What happens in Iraq is of course crucial to world security and the international economy. But a close look at the rapidly-evolving defence ambitions of the 15 EU nations is also warranted.

Not because the EU is set to overtake NATO as the guardian of European defence and security or start flexing its military muscle in the Middle East.

The EU’s defence goals are modest: the force to be deployed in Macedonia will only count about 300 soldiers and will have a limited task of overseeing chronically-fragile relations between the government in Skopje and the ethnic Albanian minority.

The EU’s Macedonian operation _ nicknamed Concordia _ will also rely heavily on NATO’s strategic assets and military capabilities.

Admiral Rainer Feist, the EU’s German operation commander in Macedonia, is also a high-ranking NATO general who will keep the alliance abreast of what he does when he is wearing the EU hat.

But make no mistake: the EU is serious about forging a common security and defence policy. And many in the bloc are determined to use the Iraq war and the divisions it has bared among European governments to press for swifter efforts to craft a stronger EU defence identity.

“We know the world will not take heed of us ... until we stop relying on the EU for economic growth and the U.S. for security,” European Commission President Romano Prodi warned the European Parliament last week.

“The moment of truth for Europe’s foreign and defence policy has come,” Mr Prodi insisted, adding that without a strong common defence, the EU would be left out of the management of world affairs.

Mr Prodi’s comments give added weight to an initiative by Germany, France, Belgium and Luxembourg to speed ahead with defence cooperation among a “core” group of nations, with a special “mini summit” scheduled to be held in Brussels on April 29.

Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, who raised the idea of increased European defence cooperation at a recent meeting of EU leaders, has said European governments need to develop “real military capacities, not against the US but as a counterweight”.

Since Americans have guaranteed European security since 1945, it should be no surprise that Washington has not bothered to seek Europe’s views on global affairs including Iraq, added Belgium’s outspoken foreign minister, Louis Michel.

But despite the rhetoric in favour of a European defence union and the EU military operation starting in Macedonia, much remains to be done before the EU can develop a credible defence and security arm.

Officials admit that to be taken seriously, EU governments will have to step up their spending on military hardware and manpower, a tough prospect at a time of slowing economies and tight budgets.

A European defence initiative without proper capabilities will be a “paper tiger”, warns NATO Secretary General George Robertson.

But for more than a decade - and with the exceptions of France and Britain _ European defence budgets have fallen below two per cent of GDP.

Also, for all the publicity given to the go-it-alone Belgian-French-German initiative, developing a common EU defence will be impossible without the participation of Britain, whose army has the greatest global reach of all countries in the bloc.

Still there is no denying that efforts to forge a common European defence policy have been gaining momentum since 1992. A 60,000-strong EU rapid reaction force has been set up to carry out peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.

Earlier this year, the EU took over the UN’s police mission in Bosnia.

And while the new Macedonian operation remains modest in size and aims, officials insist that the EU _ operating with NATO support _ has not ruled out undertaking more sizable tasks in the Balkans and outside Europe.

EU crisis-management missions could be undertaken in Africa, Moldova and the Caucasus if requested by governments in the region or the United Nations.

Building Europe’s defence identity will require more than money. EU leaders will have to show farsightedness and political courage. But as Mr Prodi pointed out, the choice is clear: either Europe takes charge of its defence and security or it remains in America’s shadow, its voice and unheard as the U.S. fashions a new world order.

Manager, coach, captain responsible for debacle: COMMENT

PAKISTAN’S pathetic performance in the World Cup and its postmortem demanded an in depth analysis. But what is obvious is the failure of three top characters Waqar Younis, Richard Pybus and Mr Shaharyar Khan — the captain, coach and manager respectively.

This triumvirate was supposed to lead but only succeeded in letting down the team. Their loudmouthed bluster before departure about winning the prized cup turned out to be tragic comedy.

Given our sentimental mind-set, we were swept off our feet by this high flown hype forgetting the ground realities after our shameful showing against South Africa before the mega competition.

When our team was selected, we flaunted the slogan “hope for the best” and did not “prepare for the worst” which is the essential part of the maxim.

We could not imagine the poor form of Inzamam-ul-Haq, Yousuf Youhana and Younis Khan thus making no provisions for a fourth specialist batsman. Abdul Razzaq, Shahid Afridi and Rashid Latif could not fill the breach. Thus our lack of vision and planning was exposed.

As I had pointed out before, the cricket board generously provided all the facilities to get a positive result. It arranged and provided the services of a coach, bowling coach, two doctors, a psychologist, an analyst, and a physiotherapist leaving no room for any excuse but neither the team management nor the players could deliver.

Now look at the excellent example of Kenya which qualified for the semifinal sans any infrastructure and bereft of sponsors. It gave tough time to eventual winners and runners up Australia and India.

Now let us carefully examine the root causes of our deplorable performance. First the performance of Waqar Younis, the leader. I had also backed him up as captain never thinking that he will make such elementary mistakes and take outlandish decisions.

When a team embarks on such an important encounter its batting order is decided after examining all the factors beforehand. We could not till the end determine the opening pair nor of one down position which is so vital.

This situation was continuing from last one year. Several openers were tried, so was the No 3 position. First it was Razzaq, then Inzamam and later Youhana. It thought Inzamam was the ideal choice and Youhana was the next best. Every team marks out the best man for this slot. At one time our preference used to be Zaheer Abbas and West Indies opted for its star player Vivian Richards.

The overall pick up criteria betrayed similar bankruptcy. Why was Saqlain Mushtaq dropped against Australia and India? Asking Younis Khan to bowl — who hardly ever does it for his departmental team — was an absurd step.

Saying that a spinner cannot be effective against India is also incomprehensible. Have we forgotten Iqbal Qasim and Tauseef Ahmed’s decisive performance against them in the Bangalore Test 17 years ago where Pakistan owed its memorable victory to the two spinners.

At one time when West Indian and Australian batsmen were considered best against pace attack our Sarfraz Nawaz and Imran Khan did rattle them.

We have experienced a regrettable reverse in the Asian Test Championship in Lahore against Sri Lanka by omitting Saqlain, a mistake again repeated by Waqar. In doing so Waqar perhaps shattered the confidence of almost every player.

As regards the role of Pybus, the coach, whom I had already described an ordinary trainer who has no credentials for the job assigned to him. He was at first engaged as a trainer in 1999 when Mushtaq Mohammad was the coach who took the team into the final.

Mr Zafar Altaf who later headed the board took the right decision to sack Pybus. The reasons for this radical decision were many that Mr Altaf might reveal at an appropriate time.

How then Pybus became coach later on and was retained despite the disastrous collapse of the Pakistan team for paltry 59 and 53 runs against Australia in Sharjah Test. The disastrous tour of South Africa later on was another blow during his tenure.

Ironically he was rewarded for these repeated reversals by being offered enormous renumerations and retained him till the World Cup.

He neither gave team proper training nor a game plan. Only the cricket board can explain this enigmatic action. Neither he nor bowling coach Daryl Foster appeared before the review committee. All the experts had beforehand pointed out that he (Pybus) had no attachment with the team.

Now a few observations about the manager Mr Shaharyar Khan. Many people who did not agree with my assessments before will probably change their views after the uncremonious exit of Pakistan from the World Cup.

A man totally lacking cricketing insight was given such an important responsibility which he eagerly accepted could not have yielded any other outcome when he constituted five committees of players.

This step expressed his woeful mishandling. This silly experiment divided the team in — one set looking after the protocol, one involved in entertainment and one surprisingly headed by Inzamam already struck by a bad patch supposed to be enforcing discipline.

Thus the manager not only shed his responsibility but sowed the seeds of indiscipline. Finally the open fight between Inzamam and Younis Khan made a mockery of the disciplinary committee for which the manager tried to play down a major incident to cover his mishandling is mind-boggling.

Our hands down abject surrender in the field against our arch-rivals was mainly our bowlers’ failure to deliver. A noteworthy difference was that we had attacking bowlers and they had seamers.

It is time to revamp and regroup the resources the PCB has in its fold. Team’s are not built overnight. It looks the board has made up its mind to get rid of majority of senior players

Instead of ditching all the senior players it will be prudent on part of the PCB think tank to have a blend of senior and juniors in its effort to rebuild a team to take on the best in coming months.

A perfect example for the board to follow is to follow the invincible Australians. The Aussies got rid off the Waugh brothers but did not opt for a wholesale change. Above all the Aussies has the required backup to make changes.

Unfortunately Pakistan do not seem to have readymade replacements for the likes of Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis. Saeed Anwar and Inzamam-ul-Haq and that could put the youngsters under tremendous pressure.

I sincerely pray for the success of the new management and the team selected for Sharjah. Yet I still think it would have been prudent for the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) not to have overlooked some of the senior players as nobody remembers losers in this success-oriented world.

Living with power failures in summer: SOCIAL THEMES

GIVEN the somewhat depressing thought that another scorching summer lies ahead and the citizens of this city have to be at the receiving end from both the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation and the water and sanitation department of the city government, it is not difficult to perceive the fears that steadily come alive. What kind of summer lies ahead, and what will be the performance of the KESC, this year?

Sometimes the best way to prove the point is to quote from an appropriate news item and this time to do so let me quote this at the very outset. Said Dawn on 26th March that “No let-up in power breakdowns. Another 12 mgd shortfall aggravates water crisis,” and the opening paragraph detailed it like this “At a time when the city is already in the grip of a water crisis, a long spell of power failure, now at Pipri pumping station, on Tuesday, resulted in suspension of pumping and ultimately leading to another shortfall of 12 million gallons.” Sounds familiar.

Now the point about the water shortage in Karachi is one that calls for another column; the focus here is on the “power” side of the Karachi story. Which means that we talk of the KESC, an organization that evokes little sympathy, though there is every good reason to try and show some compassion and concern for an organization that is not only up for privatization, but is also integral to Karachi. Whether we like it or not, the KESC is here to stay. How we keep it is up to us, says one KESC protagonist. That it has militant antagonists is something that we don’t need to remind ourselves of here.

Will the city’s lights be affected by the war in Iraq which from the look of things now seems likely to continue for longer than what we had imagined. Fears and fears only. The KESC chief, Brig Tariq Saddozai, said on Wednesday that the KESC has a furnace oil storage capacity of 14 days only. And the Sui Southern Gas Company has reported that it has a contingency plan for the KESC in case there is a shortage of furnace oil, because of war in the Middle East.

Now that is one side of the story. And it is good to hear that the KESC has claimed (at least) that it has oil stocks to keep the city “electrified” for 30 days, in case oil supply to the city is disturbed, due to the situation in Iraq, or the region.

As one contemplates about the KESC in the context of summer 2003, and expects that there will be maddening familiar power failures and breakdowns, it is significant to note what the KESC chief has said. He has made it clear that the KESC now seeks a link with Hubco so as to avoid loadshedding this summer. The point being made is that instead of having the KESC linked to Wapda, it should have a direct link with Hubco, which itself supplies power to Wapda. It makes more sense, it is argued vehemently.

On the face of it, it seems plausible as well. Assuming that it is unlikely to happen as soon as it is needed, there is reason to believe that Karachiites would do better to try and develop a realistic attitude towards doing without electricity in their routine, at times. And as power shortages affect water, they should be ready to live with less water too.

I am told by KESC sources that while there is a ban on increasing the generating capacity of the KESC, since 1994, with the philosophy being that Independent Power Producers were to be the source that was needed, for Karachi’s electricity, the larger answer now to end Karachi’s power woes lies in enabling the private sector to set up power plants. The KESC can’t do this due to policy and resource constraints. A tall order.

What is the peak demand in summer? Last year it was 1,850MW and it is anticipated that it will be 1,900MW this year. The next summer it will be 2,000MW? Where is all this electricity going to come from?

Keep in mind that the existing generating stations of the KESC are aging, and even if and when they are ideally maintained and upgraded, there is only that much that they can do, to meet the electricity needs of the 1.7 million customers that there are today in Karachi.

The KESC needs resources to improve and augment its transmission and distribution network; it is said that a three-year plan has been submitted by the KESC management to the federal government to bring about an upgrading of its network. The first instalment of this plan, (approved by the IMF also) was to have been released (Rs13 billion) in early January this year. That is still pending.

One feels that there is much that is pending with the KESC. The organization, critical to Karachi’s progress, development and stability, owes much to Karachi. But one feels that even Karachiites owe much to the KESC which includes payment of the KESC’s dues. For unless the organization is paid back, it cannot grow. Simple and why should we all suffer because of defaulters?

Of course, there are many dimensions to the KESC-consumer relationship. The KESC has its complaints and the citizens have their laments. One of them being that the KESC is unreliable, even now, when summer has yet to unleash its fury, or that the cost of electricity is too high, unaffordable. Which brings in the point about the recent possibility of an octroi tax being passed on to power consumers. Whether this proposed octroi to be levied on the KESC is a “feeler” or whether it is actually coming, is still to be seen. But the very thought that those who pay the KESC bill end up, paying more, and those who don’t pay, get away with it, is something that is an issue that needs to be addressed.

Mercifully the KESC appears willing to listen to its consumers. The general perception about the organization is still far from what it should be, even though its response time to consumers complaints from KESC complaint centres has gone down.

The art of hypocrisy

US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld seems to have gotten quite upset over the fact that Al Jazeera showed pictures of captured and dead American soldiers. In a press conference, he said it was most unfortunate that news channels were showing this footage. Clearly, Mr Rumsfeld’s threat was aimed more at American television channels where the footage was bound to cause criticism of the Bush administration’s war strategy and force some people to question Central Command’s claims of positive progress.

In a press conference on Sunday evening, US Gen John Abuzaid went to the extent of publicly chiding that Al Jazeera correspondent telling him that his channel should not have aired the footage. Following his public, and completely uncalled for rebuke, a correspondent of a British newspaper, quite incredulously, asked the general what action the US would take against Al Jazeera if it carried on airing such footage.

Clearly, Al Jazeera’s reporting has riled American military planners. They seem extremely upset over the showing of their POWs with even their president “warning” Saddam Husain to treat them humanely. Apparently, the US authorities do not seem that bothered when newspapers or TV channels show pictures of Iraqi POWs. On March 24, the front page of the Washington Post carried a picture of an American soldier handling an Iraqi prisoner.

The same day, CNN did something that one would normally expect a US government official to have done. It asked an Al Jazeera spokesman why the channel had shown footage of the American prisoners. The Al Jazeera spokesman countered by asking that how come the Arabic news channel was being criticized — for showing images that would normally be expected to be a part of war — while CNN and other American media outlets had no qualms showing Iraqi civilian and soldiers being arrested or surrendering. To this, the CNN representative, Aaron Brown, quite amazingly said: “Because their families are not seeing the broadcast.” First of all, CNN can be seen all over the world and it is quite possible that some people in Iraq must be watching it. More importantly though, the reply is a crude attempt by CNN to hide its obvious bias, something that even BBC could be accused of, at least over the POW issue.

As for the footage violating the Geneva Conventions, first of all it should be remembered that the guidelines were laid down much before the advent of live coverage on television of wars. That is not to say that the American prisoners should be treated with contempt. It’s just that Mr Rumsfeld, all of a sudden, seems to have been reminded of the Geneva Conventions in the treatment of prisoners taken during a war. Surely, he will agree that the prisoners taken in Afghanistan and currently detained at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba have no rights under the Conventions. Of course, as the Pentagon will say, that is because they have been classified in such a manner — enemy combatants — that the Conventions do not apply to them. A clever use of semantics can obviously do a lot in this world.

POSTSCRIPT: Well-known alternative web site www.yellowtimes.org was closed down after it carried pictures of the American POWs. Those who host it said they could no longer allow it to operate it since “no American TV stations or newspapers had carried the pictures” (again something not true). The people behind it however have vowed to carry on with their work. — ORQ