The election story in numbers!

More Pakistanis seem to have voted against Musharraf (15.30 million approximately) than for him (14.70 million) or against America (MMA’s 4.63 million) in the October 10 elections. In fact the total anti-American vote polled are just a little over 16 per cent of the total vote polled (30 million). And most of these anti-American votes (80 per cent) have been cast in just one province (NWFP). But this anti-American vote in the NWFP also includes the Pushtoon nationalist votes as well because the rout of nationalist parties such as ANP indicates that their supporters shifted their loyalties and had voted for MMA — perhaps not in support of its religious predilection but to lend their voice to the Alliance’s anti-American campaign. Even in Balochistan, it was the Pushtoon belt which has voted en masse for the MMA. The anti-Musharraf vote (15.30 million) is made up of votes polled by PPP (7.37 million), PML-N (3.32 million) and MMA (4.63 million). The pro-Musharraf vote includes the rest, the PML-Q (7.72 million), NA (3.30 million), the MQM (0.91 million) etc, etc. According to another calculation using the rule of thumb, the PPP (7.39 million) has obtained more votes than the PML-Q (7.33 million), and the PML-N (3.32 million) more than NA (3.30 million) and the MMA (3.29 million).

All these numbers are approximate and have been arrived at by collecting and collating the unofficial results announced so far by the Election Commission. However, the ratio of anti- and pro-Musharraf vote as well as the anti-American vote in the total vote polled is not likely to change much even after the final notification of official results by the EC. And it is, perhaps, this very voting pattern which is hampering government formation at the centre at the earliest. Though the PML-Q has obtained the largest number of seats in the National Assembly as compared to the PPP or MMA and it also has the support of a number of alliances, groups and independents who too were elected on pro-Musharraf vote, it is still finding it difficult to claim the right to form the government at the centre. Of course, its biggest problem is internal because half the members of the Grand National Alliance, which is made up of PML-Q, National Alliance, the PML-J, the PML-F etc., are prime ministerial candidates and the other half are aspiring for a cabinet post. In such a situation you can only have a consensus party leader who would sit outside the NA (Mian Azhar) and a consensus parliamentary leader (Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain) who has already announced that he is not a candidate for the Prime Minister’s office. But in such a grouping it is next to impossible to find a consensus candidate for the PM’s job. And unless they agree on a candidate for the post, they cannot go out seeking support for him from the party or parties with whom they would feel the least uncomfortable in a coalition and which would hopefully last for five years. But even if at some point in the near future, the GNA succeeds in choosing an agreed candidate, will it be able to sell him to one or the other two major parties both of which have been sent to the NA by anti-Musharraf Pakistanis? Highly unlikely!

Both, the PPP and the MMA would demand the sky itself in return for making compromises on their electoral promises. They have already started promoting their respective candidates for PM’s office. And both are not likely to withdraw their conditions with regard to LFO and the oath without getting meaningful trade offs. The MMA seems to have already set a tempting trap for Musharraf and his PML-Q by offering to work for six months with an unconstitutional President who is also the COAS and as well as with the NSC. And after six months they, perhaps, would like to review the performance of the two institutions and decide whether or not to continue with these constitutional digressions for the next five years. The MMA, perhaps, believes that once power is transferred to the parliament, it would be next to impossible for Musharraf or the PML-Q to stop the elements in the NA who have come in on the back of anti-Musharraf votes from upsetting the military regime’s constitutional apple-cart. Musharraf and PML-Q on the other hand would, perhaps, walk into the trap willingly on the belief that once the parliament comes into being through the LFO route, it would be next to impossible for the MMA and the PPP to wriggle out of it for the next five years.

It would be interesting to see how things shape up in the next couple of weeks on this score. But one thing for sure, the PML-Q did not contest the election to sit on the opposition benches. And it is not going to do so, come what may. On the other hand, the nationalist votes which have contributed to such a stunning victory of the MMA would see to it once power is transferred in NWFP that the Alliance kept its religious predilections within reasonable bounds. As it is, Islamic influence had always remained predominant in the Pushtoon culture. It was the same even when non-MMA governments were in power at the centre and in NWFP. So, not much is expected to change in NWFP on the religious front. But MMA’s anti-American rhetorics during the electioneering would certainly get reflected in its policies at least in NWFP and Balochistan. But this too is not such an unsurmountable problem. Americans and the Pushtoons have worked very closely in the Afghan war of the 1980s when the US defeated the Soviet Union with the help of Pushtoon Mujahideen. The recent differences between the two appear transitory and passing and are likely to disappear once the war against Al Qaeda shifts from Afghanistan and the tribal areas to other theatres in the world. And once reconstruction and rehabilitation work starts in Afghanistan in the right earnest and dollars start pouring in, the Pushtoons who never misses a chance to make quick buck no matter what the circumstances, would get busy in his normal activity — commerce — and give up foreign policy to those sitting in Islamabad!—Onlooker

Next govt: consultation in progress

EFFORTS by the winners to form a government in Balochistan are similar to the pattern being adopted at the Centre and in other provinces, that is consultation in two different directions — formation of a government by pro-establishment parties and personalities and establishing an opposition alliance within the Provincial Assembly.

In Balochistan the parties or allies representing the second group are the nationalists, with a populist base. Some of the parties are already working from the platform of the Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement. They will simply be taking the same alliance to the Provincial Assembly and will adopt a common stand on vital political and other issues.

The strength of such an alliance within the Balochistan Assembly is expected to be 13 because the BNP, BNM, PMAP, PPP and JWP are expected to forge such a group. Top leaders of some parties had a meeting in Quetta the other day at which they discussed the political situation and the post-election scenario in the province.

Sardar Akhtar Mengal, the BNP president, and some other leaders had already expressed their doubts about the fairness of the election and its results. These leaders have made up their mind to take politics to the street while their elected representatives would continue their struggle within the legislatures.

Some other leaders have blamed the election rules banning the holding of public meetings at the old and assigned places. They think that because of such restrictions the parties and their leaders were not able to contact their electorate.

“The government made it very difficult to approach the voters by traditional methods of mass contacts and thus it violated the democratic rights of the people,” an opposition leader remarked.

However, the populist parties are preparing for the post-election scenario and will give a tough time to the future government in Balochistan.

Another point to note is that before the polls Nawab Akbar Bugti, the JWP chief, had taken the stand that his party would remain part of the ARD. He had, therefore, proposed that joint candidates be fielded in the election, under a single symbol, on the pattern of the MMA, but his proposal was not accepted. JWP sources say that now an alliance may not produce the desired results.

On the other hand, more and more independent MPAs are joining the PML-Q, increasing its strength to equal the MMA’s, the single largest party after the election. Lt-Col Yunus Changhezi, an MPA-elect from the Quetta city, is the last independent MPA to announce his decision to join the PML-Q in the presence of Jam Mir Yusuf of Lasbela and other PML-Q MPAs from different parts of Balochistan.

PML sources are hopeful that they will get a simple majority in the Provincial Assembly because more and more MPAs will join the party. But they still show their preference for a coalition government, seeking support of other parties in sharing power at the provincial level. “We are not planning a solo flight,” a PML leader told this correspondent.

There are strong speculations that Jam Mir Yusuf of Lasbela will emerge as the leader of the coalition partners and ultimately elected leader of the house at the end of parleys and consultations.

However, the formation of a government in the province before the formation of a government at the Centre is ruled out by observers here. They say that the dust must settle first at the federal level where leaders are yet to reach a consensus on the post of prime minister.

Besides others, three Baluch candidates are in the race for the prime minister’s slot. They are: Sardar Farooq Ahmad Khan Leghari, the Millat Party chief; Mir Zafarullah Jamali, secretary-general of the PML-Q; and Zubeida Jalal, also of the PML-Q. Her name is being proposed in case there is any objection by the allies or partners to the candidature of Mir Zafarullah Jamali.

There will be a deep impact on the provincial politics once the allies and partners in the National Assembly are able to choose a prime minister. Although the election commission has already consumed 10 days, it has yet to notify the names of elected representatives. After notification, the president can summon the National Assembly to start the process of electing the speaker, deputy speaker and the leader of the house. This does not seem possible before the end of this month. As the same process will take place in Balochistan and other provinces, the formation of government will be delayed for two more weeks.

In Maj Quisling’s footsteps

WHEN I read a book — and that is not very often and most of what I read is from father’s old library — I want to share passages I like with my readers. The one you are just about to read is from Alberto Moravia’s novel, The Woman of Rome. An English translation by Lydia Holland was first published in 1949. Father had bought it from the Victory Bookstall, Inverarity Road, in Saddar, Karachi. I wonder whether the bookstall is still there and whether Inverarity Road is known by its old name.

Somehow, we get tired of old names when we have nothing better to do or when our minds are empty. The Quaid, I am sure, would have disapproved of this habit in no uncertain terms. But then the Quaid would have disapproved of most things we do in his name — the PML(Q), for instance. I tell you the founder of Pakistan would have lost no time in disowning the Chaudhrys of Gujrat and all the rest of them.

A quisling, as you know, is a collaborationist, a traitor to one’s country. The original collaborator was a Maj Vidkun Quisling, who collaborated with the Germans when they invaded Norway in 1940. People like him are called quislingites. In our case, too, there was an invasion led by a very powerful contemporary. He won without resistance and found ready collaborators. Our own quislingites were led by Mian Azhar. He came to grief but his followers are prospering. Our quislingites are no traitors to their country but they have indeed sacrificed their friends so that they can perpetuate themselves in power. Let’s see what are the wages of virtue which they are ultimately paid by the Great Paymaster none of us can refuse.

But I have gone far afield. I wanted to share a passage from Alberto Moravia’s novel, The Woman of Rome. Two of the main characters are talking to each other and the dialogue runs like this:

Sometimes, though, he seemed to hate not only his own family and his own milieu, but all mankind. One day he remarked .... “The rich are appalling but the poor certainly aren’t any better, if for different reasons.”

“You’d be a bit nearer the mark, if you admitted frankly that you hate all mankind without exception.”

“In the abstract, when I am not among them, I don’t hate them; at least hate them so little that I believe in their progress. If I didn’t believe this, I wouldn’t trouble myself with politics. But when I am among them they horrify me. Really, mankind is worthless.”

“We’re people, too, and therefore we’re worthless, too, and therefore we have no right to judge.” “I don’t judge them. I smell them — or rather, I sniff them — like a dog sniffs the scent of a partridge or a hare. But does the dog judge them? I sniff them and I find they’re malicious, stupid, selfish, petty, vulgar, deceitful, shameful, full of filth. I smell them....”

On another occasion, he said, “Men may be good or bad, I don’t know — but in any case they’re certainly useless, superfluous.”

“.... the whole of mankind could very well be wiped out. It’s only an excrescence on the face of the earth — a wart. The whole world would be far more beautiful without mankind, their cities, streets, parks, all their little arrangements. Think how beautiful the world would be if there were nothing but sky, sea, trees, earth, animals.”

“Mankind has neither a beginning nor an end — it’s something decidedly negative, therefore. The history of mankind is nothing but one long yawn of sheer boredom. What need is there of it? Speaking for myself — I’d have done very well without it.”

“But you are a part of mankind yourself. Would you have done without yourself, then?”

“Especially without myself.”

I do not know in what mood Moravia made his main characters say all this. But there does come a time when most of us feel everything is futile and is really rather unnecessary. For instance, I often ask myself: what the hell difference has it made my being here and doing the job I am doing? I have seldom found a satisfactory answer and I don’t think I ever will. So, I generally let things be and get back into the rut. Rut feelings, mind you, are totally different from gut feelings. Qualitatively, at least. So I’ll leave these sombre feelings alone and get back to business as usual, or as usual as usual can be. So, my rut feeling is that we should rename the PML(Q) PML (Quislingites). That should make Maj Quisling very happy in his grave, if he ever got one, that is.

Permit me to ramble a bit more. Many years ago, we had another King’s Party — the Republicans. It was King Iskander Mirza’s party and it thrived for a while before petering out. It made King Mirza very happy because it had served his purpose to a nicety. I am told that any subsequent reference to the Republican Party used to annoy Khan Abdul Wali Khan no end because Dr Khan Sahib was one of the Republican chief ministers of West Pakistan. Now, Dr Khan Sahib was Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan’s elder brother and, therefore, Mr Abdul Wali Khan’s uncle. Hence Dr Khan Sahib is a skeleton in the family cupboard and Mr Abdul Wali Khan would rather not talk about him.

Courage is not entirely dead in the great Khan clan, however. Mr Wali Khan’s Begum, Nasim, and son, Asfandyar, have resigned from the ANP offices after the party’s dismal performance in the recent elections. They have accepted full responsibility for the debacle but say they will continue to work for the party as ordinary members. This is how it should be and both have risen in my estimation. I hope others whose parties have not done any too well will learn from Begum Nasim Wali Khan and Asfandyar Wali. It pays at times to be more courageous than cunning.

As one thing leads to another, I’ll say a few words now about a dear friend who lives in Chakwal. He contested a National Assembly seat on the PML(N) ticket. That was not a very wise thing to do. But the fact that he did it means that he is a brave man. What the heck, after all. He was pitted against the nephew-cum-son-in-law of a general.

Generals are mighty powerful birds. I have always said that while a serving general is worth Rs100,000, a retired officer of the same rank is worth Rs200,000. My poor friend was nowhere near being a general — serving or retired. He opted out of the army as a mere captain while his rival, the nephew-cum-son-in-law of the retired general in question was a major. So the dice was heavily loaded against my friend but even so, he went as near to winning as makes no difference. Well played, I say to my friend. Keep your chin up, old boy. This is, as he says himself, the beginning and not the end of the tamasha, but I don’t want Gen Franks of the US to know anything about it.

GEN Tauqir Zia, the resurrected Chairman of the Cricket Board, has a very ambitious plan up his sleeve. Since he has been put back in the driving seat, he intends to order the Pakistan cricketers to lose a Test series to Zimbabwe and all the one-day engagements we have leading up to the World Cup where he will work diligently for an ignominious exit for the national team and will then go down in history as the most successful PCB Chief we have ever had. Ata boy!

Tiny parcel, lethal tidings

HOWEVER mystifying the political scenario, the centre of activity following a general election has to be the capital. One may recall the days when this city used to be the capital and the hub of politics and power. That was more than four decades ago. Our loss has been Islamabad’s gain. But all that remains in the family that all of us together are. The country is the richer by one more metropolis and one of much grace and of some peace too.

No doubt, Karachi has had more than its share of turmoil and unease. It could have done vastly better had it been spared the wave after wave of violence most of which was contrived. Admittedly, this has been a city with a mind and unbending will of its own. Through all that came to it, or was inflicted upon it, Karachi refused to be awed or forced to toe any line that was not of its own thinking and in tune with its sentiment.

It is only so natural to think and sometimes just wonder what’s in store this time for this city and its 14 million people who represent the whole of Pakistan. We have our eyes riveted and ears tuned towards Islamabad. Most of those who can speak for us, or believe they are entitled to do so, are also there. That’s some consolation. How much of it will actually translate into real comfort and joy nobody can tell right now.

What this city and its people ask for is indeed not a great deal. First, we need peace that has been in rapidly decreasing supply. One might say there has been no supply of this soul-satisfying element for quite some time.

We have somehow managed to do with diminishing peace and increasing violence, proliferating in ever-increasing variety. There is much of violence that we have learned to take in the stride without feeling the pinch of it.

We have endured bomb blasts. We are no longer strangers to suicide bombers. The latest in the line is parcel bombs. As compared with bombs that annihilate several lives and much else with one blast, a parcel bomb might look benign, indeed some kind of engagingly innovative innocence. A little thought should, however, rob us of this complacency. This device to kill can cause more havoc and on a vastly wider scale than the bigger bombs.

In the first place, let the relevant authorities convince themselves that this parcel bomb is not quite as limited a killer as it might seem by its size and mode of delivery. If not nipped in the bud, this menace can generate much more fear among millions of ordinary citizens than the bombs we have encountered so far. Just imagine the extent and intensity of scare when opening a letter, you were expecting to bring some news about your good friends, near and dear kin, your children or your parents. The potential of psychological injury the scare of parcel bomb bears defies calculation.

How to go about identifying, containing and combating this challenge is a question that will demand thought and action of the highest sophistication from the security and law-enforcing agencies. The questions that arise in the layperson’s mind are more than enough to benumb the thought process. But perhaps the first is: Why has this begun and who are the perpetrators of this irredeemable outrage, and why at this time. Unless we know the cause and the source, we shall only be hitting in the dark - and most probably missing the target.

This parcel bomb business may be a fallout of the effective measures against large-size bomb planters and the success we may have achieved so far. That’s one possibility. But there is no reason to be so sure. It may be quite an unrelated phenomenon. This tendency may be a juvenile aberration unrelated to the highly motivated and efficiently organized international terror network (s). The prudent analyst will not rule out any possibility unless there is evidence to warrant exclusion of any factor.

While the security people mobilize their response, educating the people about what this menace ought to be the highest priority. In all likelihood the target of this form of violence will be an individual rather than a crowd. Education and guidance about how to face this danger should reach all citizens. Do not for a moment forget that in an average family, more often than not, it is the children who answer the postman’s knock at the door. This thought would ignite hair-raising scare in every heart.

It is no exaggeration to say and insist that the parcel bomb danger must be taken with utmost seriousness and given a priority second to none for the simple reason that it strikes the sensibility of every citizen. Big bomb attacks aim big targets. Parcel bomb will be designed to land in the hands of unsuspecting and innocent individuals. As such, this menace is going to impinge upon the peace of mind of everyone in society.

All those related in any manner with security and law enforcement must realize that this is a very serious challenge. Mind you it targets society as a whole. Be alert and vigilant and address the people to educate them about how to be alert and vigilant. There should be a simple but effective message addressed to children also.

The way the city voted

A lot has been said about the way people in Karachi voted. The MQM was quite upset at not getting the number of seats it thought it was going to get, and accused the government — at least initially — of backing candidates from the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) and its arch-enemy, the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM-H).

In the end, when the dust and the accusations had all settled, the MQM got 13 of the city’s 20 National Assembly seats, the MMA five, the PPPP two and the MQM-H, quite surprisingly it has to be said, one.

According to figures released by the Election Commission (www.ecp.gov.pk), a little more than 1.737 million of the city’s 4.746 million voters cast their votes meaning that the turnout was 36.61 per cent, or five percentage points lower than the national average of 41 per cent.

The MQM got 37.8 per cent of all votes cast (slightly more than 657,000) and was followed by the MMA which received around 484,000 votes or 27.9 per cent of the total. The PPPP was third with around 232,000 votes or 13.4 per cent of all votes cast. The remaining twenty per cent was split between the Sunni Tehrik (3.1 per cent), the MQM-H (2.94 per cent), the PML-N (2.4 per cent), the PML-Q (2.3 per cent), the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (1.5 per cent), smaller parties and independents. One party that did rather badly, the Pakistan Freedom Party, was allotted the election symbol of the lota.

Three actors contested on NA seats from Karachi and none of them won. However, Shafi Mohammad, who ran on a PPPP ticket managed to come in a respectable third getting almost 14,000 votes in NA-253 while Qaiser Khan Nizamani, also a PPPP candidate, got around 8,300 votes in NA-251. The PTI had fielded veteran actor Kamal (full name Syed Kamal Shah) who got 3,176 votes from NA-250, under which also come Defence and Clifton.

From the figures above, it appears obvious that the MMA has gained at the expense of both the PPP and the MQM, though probably disproportionately more from the latter. In fact, given that the MQM roughly got 56 per cent of all votes cast in the last election, it’s showing this time means that its share of the vote fell by almost a third. A look at the Election Commission figures for seats long considered safe bets for the MQM, where the party used to win by huge margins, revealed that the MMA came in a very strong second. This actually happened all over the city. Assuming that the MMA managed to more or less mobilize all their votes, and given that the turnout was 36.61 per cent, around 10 per cent of all city residents voted for the MMA. The other factor that the MMA did so well, reflected in the rest of the country, is that much of its vote is concentrated in certain areas.

The lack of any figures on how many people between the ages of 18 and 21 voted make it impossible for any informed comment on this aspect of the election.

One doesn’t go to art shows all that much. But for some people — the artsy fartsy regulars if you will — they probably constitute a substantial chunk of the time that they spend socializing. After all, Karachi’s art scene, so they say, is probably the most happening with some of the city’s more choosy galleries are booked months in advance.

The two shows that I managed to go to were by well-known artists, both men, and who have been around for quite some time.

The first was at Chawkandi, a couple of weeks back, by Moeen Faruqi. I have known Moeen for quite some time, and have long been a fan of his work. Readers should be reminded at this point that I am not in any way an art critic; probably don’t even have the vocabulary for it. Having made this qualification, his paintings remind me of the works at New York’s Museum of Modern Art.

And like I said, keeping in mind that I’m not art critic or anything even as pretentiously close (which by the way doesn’t mean you can’t appreciate good art when you see it), Moeen’s work does remind me of Picasso’s faces. One good thing about his paintings was that they were refreshing and quite different from the usual portraits, landscapes, horses, pigeons and other trite things one sometimes gets to see. And, they were quite reasonably priced.

The next show — and still continuing — was David Alesworth’s at the Canvas gallery. Knowing David and his preoccupation with things kitsch as a kind of alternative art, I knew that his show was going to be pretty different too. He had several metal sculptures in the shape of rockets — not like modern rockets but like the ones you see in cartoons with exaggerated curves and all — and called them ‘probes’. Then, he had several other pieces, mostly in metal, including plates on which were stencilled various everyday logos. And there were also teddy bears in metal, with small protrusions spread all over them. Dozens of photographs of David’s pieces and presumably of ideas and things that seemed to have gone into his creative process lined the gallery.

As a friend who went with me said, perhaps his metallic ‘probes’ might have had greater effect had the space in which they were placed was different. At the gallery, some of the larger ones were actually placed in the small garden outside. Inside, a satellite dish had been done up with signs of ‘Fazul Hut’ on it — along with the Pizza Hut logo though. There was also a carpet made up teddy bears — with their inside fillings removed — and this was priced at Rs 16,000. Some of the probes — great for props at a party or a ball or I suppose to lend your home that eccentric weird look — cost around Rs 50,000. But like I said, you can always count on David to be quite interesting, and I went away — the complete non-art critic — with more than a fleeting impression of what I had seen; and enough to actually write about it.

There has been a huge public outcry in Britain over this year’s AS level exams and the way they were re-graded. Last month, Britain education minister ordered that at least 700,000 exams papers be re-graded since the examining authority had at the last minute change grade boundaries. The re-checking, it is believed, might compensate for this unwarranted change.

This would presumably also affect local A level students in Karachi though one is yet to see any story or local reaction on this matter. Also, it is not clear whether any of the 700,000 papers that were re-graded included those of foreign candidates. However, after the first batch of around 90,000 such papers were re-checked, the results of over 1,900 students improved and 168 of those who had earlier missed out on admission managed to enter the universities of their choice. As for students here, the closure of the British Council and severely reduced presence of its staff, makes matters worse.

However, we got an email from someone who says that she would be willing to gather information from all local candidates who feel that they had been unfairly graded and would send it to the examining authority in the UK.

In response to an article printed in this newspaper’s education section, Shammy Ali Khan wrote that it was “unfair and unjust that schools and private candidates were totally unaware and given no prior notice” of this change in the marking scheme. “We intend to put forward a united plea for the re-marking of all the papers according to the old marking scheme resulting in equitable adjustment of grades,” she said. Those interested can email shammy@cliffhanger. com or ring 5878661-2.

Would it kill people to say ‘thank you’ when you hold the door or elevator for them? This has happened to me so many times — that is, people refuse to acknowledge your sense of ettiquette — that I’ve stopped counting.

And then there is example of the aunty who takes her own time while holding everyone up at the counter or the idiot who double parks in front of your car, takes his own time in coming, doesn’t apologize when you protest and then gets angry at you for complaining. You really feel like boxing such people or at the very least telling them off for not thanking you.

But sometimes you can be pleasantly surprised. Recently, I was waiting on Saturday evening outside the Standard Chartered ATM at Schon Circle. A woman was inside and seemed to be having some trouble making her transaction. However, as she came out she immediately apologized for the delay saying that the machine had eaten up her card. And, by the way, she was a foreigner.

— By Karachian

email: karachi_notebook@hotmail.com