MMA’s rise threatens Pakistan-US alliance
After blossoming for a year, Pakistan’s key alliance with the US-led coalition against terrorism seems to have suddenly come under threat after the rise of religio- political parties in the elections.
The Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal has emerged as the third largest force in the Oct 10 elections and is unlikely to lead a federal government, but is eying to rule two strategic provinces where it won mainly on the plank of opposition to US-led military strikes in neighbouring Afghanistan and Pakistan’s support to that campaign.
Though Islamabad has reaffirmed its adherence to the so-called war against terrorism, political analysts said MMA’s demands to end the Americans military presence in Pakistan would put President Pervez Musharraf’s government and a future civilian prime minister under pressure.
MMA leaders have, in the past few days, repeated their election campaign calls for American personnel to pack up and go as the two largest parties vying for power have tried to win their support to form a governing coalition.
ATTENTIVE EARS: The political parties seeking the MMA’s support find themselves unable to ignore the MMA pronouncements, such as alliance secretary-general Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s statement on Wednesday that “American presence is in negation of our internal sovereignty”.
Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the parliamentary leader of the PML(Q), which has emerged as the largest single party in the National Assembly with 77 of the 272 seats, described the MMA rise as an eye-opener for the West and called for a review of the US policies.
But the political analysts said the MMA, whose parties gave at least moral support to the Taliban, would not like to spoil their chances of governing the NWFP and Balochistan and possibly having a share at the centre by pressing with their anti-American stance.
“I think their position will be flexible,” author Ahmed Rashid, an expert on Afghan affairs, said about the religious parties, some of whose seminaries produced many of the Taliban leaders and activists, who ruled Afghanistan for more than five years before collapsing under the punitive US-led military strikes last year.
“Their interest is to appear responsible to the international community and at this stage they will not like to have a confrontation with the Americans,” he said.
But he said that MMA’s rule in the NWFP and possibly in Balochistan could adversely impact on the US-aided operations of Pakistani security forces to track down fleeing militants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
“The situation is very complicated there,” Mr Rashid said of the border areas and pointed out that the rank and file of the religious parties were “very anti-American”.
PRESSURE ON GOVT: Political analyst Ayaz Amir said the government would come under “some pressure” from religious parties over the use of Pakistani air bases by the US-led forces and sometimes bloody searches for the fleeing Taliban and Al Qaeda militants, but would not back away from an alliance that won Pakistan economic and strategic rewards over the past one year.
“We have got too deeply involved in it and we will stay course with the Americans,” he said of the Pakistan’s position. “But then President Musharraf will carry the burden of unpopularity.”
Islamabad has allowed many air bases and air corridors to the US-led forces for what it calls “search and rescue operations” in Afghanistan but says no military strikes had been launched from the Pakistani soil.
An unspecified number of American personnel are also in Pakistan under an intelligence-sharing arrangement between the two sides.
Some opposition parties blame the military government’s alleged policy to sideline the mainstream parties of former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif for the rise of the religious parties, which has also caused concern for the UN- backed government in Kabul.
“The split parliament is mainly due to the bar on the political leadership of the mainstream parties, such as the PPP, and to some extent because of the Afghan factor,” PPP’s acting secretary-general Raza Rabbani said in a television interview.
While both Ms Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were barred from running in the election and take part in the country’s most dull electioneering, the religious parties have been in a virtual campaign for a year since they started their protest marches and rallies in October last year after the US-led forces launched military strikes to punish the then Taliban regime for sheltering Al Qaeda.
Some of these parties had even made unfulfilled promises to send lashkars of volunteers into Afghanistan to help the Taliban and burn down the US-held bases.
Anti-US stance alone did not help MMA win polls
CAN anyone explain the phenomenal success of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal in the NWFP? Our armchair intellectuals and analysts in Islamabad attribute MMA’s astounding and unexpected triumph at the hustings to Pakistan’s ‘flawed’ policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan and the Taliban. A dangerous statement indeed.
The humiliating defeat of the so-called progressive and nationalist political parties and the astonishing victory of the MMA in the NWFP do need an analysis to understand the meteoric rise of the Mullahs and to see things in their right perspective. More so because the inexplicable victory of the six-party religious alliance has proved many an analysts and assessments wrong. How come, the religious parties that had collectively polled less than 2% votes in the 1997 elections rose to become the third largest group in the parliament. A mind-boggling question to which an answer has to be found.
To begin with, one may not totally discount the Afghan-Taliban factor. Indeed, this may be one of the factors that might have contributed to the MMA’s success. But it is not the factor. To make such a statement and bracketing Pukhtoons in the NWFP and Balochistan with the goings-on in Afghanistan is not only dangerous but also potently wrong. For, had that been the case, the whole of the NWFP would have been on fire in the immediate post-US war on terrorism in Afghanistan. The whole campaign of the religious right in support of the Taliban had lost its steam in weeks, as attendance in the processions had become thinner and thinner by the time, the Taliban had been thrown out.
It is too simplistic and naive a view to say that the MMA owes its success to the ‘invisible’ hand — the ‘angels’ as the anti-establishment politicians call them. One, because the ascension to power of the religious parties both in the NWFP and Balochistan does not help the government’s war on terrorism in the first place. To the contrary, it seeks to end the campaign and calls for the removal of American bases in Pakistan.
Second, the MMA just does not fit into the so-called reformist agenda of President Gen Musharraf’s government. In fact, the religious parties have quite divergent views on quite a few issues. There could be several reasons and not just one that helped the MMA pull a remarkable feat.
Traditionally, voters in the NWFP had by and large been on the side of the left and anti-establishment opposition parties. Therefore, apparent and somewhat obvious pro-establishment shift in these parties’ policy vis-a-vis the United States in the name of ‘supreme national interest’ did not seem to go down well with their supporters who saw in the MMA a challenger to international imperialism.
Those who witnessed the so-called ‘wave’ of the MMA tend to forget that it was not so much for the love of the Mullahs but the general hate towards those parties that helped the religious parties achieve remarkable results. It was not that the voters of the mainstream political parties wanted the MMA to win. They wanted their parties to lose and, therefore, did not turn up to cast their votes.
One also tend to forget that while President Gen Musharraf’s government blocked all the other political parties from organising political rallies and had, in fact, banned any political activity altogether ostensibly to keep its opponents out of the limelight. The religious parties had been given a freehand. For more than a year since Sept 11 attacks on the US, the religious parties had had a field day in the name of Afghanistan Defence Council to mobilise their workers. Therefore, when the elections were announced, the MMA was the only alliance which was ready for the electoral battle, while the other political parties looked around in desperation for partners and seat adjustment. In essence, thus, Musharraf has his ownself to blame than anybody else.
Interestingly, while the religious parties, which were traditionally known to be pro-establishment, were found to be opposing Musharraf and his attempt to legitimise his rule through a referendum. Whereas, the supposedly anti-establishment parties, were seen making statements on television praising the rulers for their ‘historic’ and ‘bold’ decisions on backing the US in its war on terrorism.
Another factor that contributed to the MMA’s success at the ballot was the full use of misuse of its election symbol — the book — that was portrayed as the Holy Book or the Quran. The Mullahs made full use of the pulpit. As if in chorus, they were out to denounce their opponents, particularly in their Friday sermons. They made full use of ‘Islam-is-in-danger’ slogans and turned the electoral battle into a war between Islam and Kufr. And in so doing, they did not even refrain from issuing fatwas.
Also, whilst the government made full use of the print and electronic media to discredit politicians of certain political parties, brandishing them as corrupt and inefficient, and made the not-so-secret attempts to weaken them and create splinter groups, the advantage of all such endeavours invariably went to the religious parties. In such a situation, while the mainstream political parties had nothing new to offer, the MMA presented itself as a viable alternative to uproot corruption and give an honest leadership to end social injustices. That’s why the general public mood during the election was ‘lets try the Mullahs this time.’
Whether this public honeymoon with the MMA will last long depends entirely how its leadership handles itself and its policies. For the first time in the history of Pakistan, the religious right finds itself in a situation with far-reaching implications both for itself and for the country on the domestic as well as international fronts. They are between a hard place and a rock. They know that this is their last stand for they may not find the same geo-political and domestic situation to help them reach the corridors of power again.
It will, therefore, be wrong on the part of the government to scuttle MMA’s attempts at making a government both in the two provinces and at the Centre. Let the MMA hold sway. And lets sit on the fences and watch. As the Chinese saying goes, these are interesting times indeed.