Task before Brahimi
LAKHDAR BRAHIMI was speaking the obvious truth when he told reporters in Rome about the difficulties involved in giving Afghanistan a post-war government. After meeting Zahir Shah, the UN’s special envoy referred to the country’s “two wars” — the civil war and the bombings — and said that developing a consensus on a new government was difficult for “a fractured society.” Nevertheless, he was all praise for the ex-Afghan ruler, who, he said, was “willing to help very unselfishly.” Yet, despite the difficulties involved, Brahimi believed the former king could play the role of “being at the centre of the kind of arrangements that need to be made to take Afghanistan out of the divisions and the fractures that have affected Afghan society for very long.”
More than a month has passed since the Anglo-American aerial strikes began, but the world coalition has made little progress in the direction of evolving a consensus on a post-Taliban government. One reason, of course, is the failure of the current air campaign to produce significant military results. The air strikes might have done some damage to the Taliban’s command and control systems and inflicted damage on their military hardware. But, on the whole, the Taliban’s military strength seems to have remained intact. Foreign press reports have also spoken about the failure of the American commando raid, which had to withdraw in the face of heavy Taliban fire. Nor have, contrary to expectations, Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat fallen to anti-Taliban forces. Recently, the Northern Alliance claims to have made some progress in the Mazar-i-Sharif area, but with heavy snowfalls likely to begin soon, ground operation in any case is likely to slow down if not halt. The overall result of this situation is a boost to the morale of the Taliban leadership. The most disappointed are those anti-Taliban Pakhtoons who had expected the Anglo-US military campaign to make rapid progress. Spectacular military results might have encouraged them to come out openly against the Taliban and initiate moves for forming a post-war dispensation. Instead, the air campaign’s failure to have a decisive impact has forced the dissidents and potential defectors to lie low.
The Northern Alliance might have gone over to the offensive and claimed some territorial gains, but it is hardly likely to put the Taliban on the run, and gain them easy control of Kabul and with it the assumption of rulership of the country. The complete absence of Pakhtoons among them precludes the possibility of a stable government under the Tajik and Uzbek-dominated Northern Alliance. The issue basically is giving the country a government that is representative of all of Afghanistan’s ethnic communities. Whether Brahimi’s optimism about the former monarch’s role is misplaced or not remains to be seen. So far, there is nothing on the ground to justify this optimism. The Gilani-organized Peshawar moot, aimed at a convergence of opinion on the future political set-up in Afghanistan, was a failure, and the one that was to be held in Turkey has been postponed. Apparently, there is complete stalemate on the issue, unless there are some behind-the-scenes moves to which Brahimi is privy.
It is time the US-led allies realized that there is a close relationship between the military and political aspects of the current drive for a change in Afghanistan: one affects the other. Without definitive results on the military front, there will be no political progress. Similarly, a US-led military victory would be meaningless unless a broad-based government is ready to take over. Without such a government waiting in the wings, a military victory would mean chaos, leading to more of fratricide. One hopes Brahimi drives this point home effectively to his interlocutors in Washington, London and other capitals he visits.
As winter sets in
IF devastating air strikes, a landscape littered with mines and a prolonged drought were not enough, the people of Afghanistan have yet another potential killer to contend with in the days ahead. With temperatures dropping dramatically and snow already falling in certain areas, the onset of the harsh Afghan winter threatens to bring more suffering to this blighted country. The war has merely compounded an already desperate situation. With many areas in the throes of a severe drought, it is essential that adequate food supplies reach the more remote areas before they become snowbound and inaccessible. A mood of near panic has gripped many of the relief agencies which are engaged in a race against time to prevent large-scale starvation. The UN claims that five million Afghans face starvation once winter sets in. According to UNICEF, as many as 100,000 children may die if sufficient food does not reach them in the next six weeks. The World Food Programme, which is spearheading the move to send food to Afghanistan, has a monumental task ahead. Its immediate aim is to deliver 9,000 tonnes of food to certain high-priority areas which may suffice for some 30,000 families for six months.
The WFP is already supplying heavily subsidized petrol to truckers and is planning to deploy snow ploughs to keep certain routes open to allow supplies to reach the needy. The WFP has also started to air-drop food supplies, with two planeloads dispatched recently to those most at risk. Matters are made worse by the absence of foreign UN staff in Afghanistan, most of whom left the country following the September 11 attacks in the US. The 180 local workers left behind have heroically continued to work under the most daunting conditions. The only welcome news for the agencies in recent days was the decision by Pakistan to allow the UN to set up 15 camps in the tribal areas and Balochistan to accommodate the most desperate among the refugees. A number of humanitarian agencies are now pleading for a one-month pause in the bombing to allow essential supplies to reach the needy before the onset of winter. Meanwhile, time is running out for millions of Afghans and the relief agencies urgently require the cooperation and financial support of the entire global community if a major calamity is to be averted.
Pre-Ramazan price hike
FOLLOWING the infamous tradition of black marketing, it seems that many retail and wholesale traders have begun a pre-Ramazan hoarding of essential food items this year too. A report from Punjab says that retailers have increased the prices of fruits and vegetables by several rupees, as wholesalers are already creating an artificial shortage of these items. Prices of onions, potatoes, peas and tomatoes have seen a sharp rise, as have atta, pulses and gram flour. These have been raised ahead of the holy month when the demand for these basic commodities generally goes up. The practice of hoarding of essential food items is nothing new. It is routinely resorted to by unscrupulous traders and wholesalers in situations of short supply due to bad crops or faulty distribution. Neither of these two conditions exist at the moment and yet a section of retailers manage to manipulate prices by creating artificial shortages in the market. The government needs to take immediate notice of the situation and take corrective steps, especially as Ramazan approaches. There is enough to go by in the country in terms of the supply and demand of the basic food items, and black marketeers should not be allowed to fleece the general public on one pretext or another.