WASHINGTON: The alarming prospect that, post-Afghanistan, George Bush will again resort to military means in prosecuting a wider “war on terrorism” against other countries is receding, at least for now. The bellicose, anti-Saddam drumbeat in Washington is loud and unmistakable.

But alive to the immense, practical difficulties, and aware of European and Arab opposition, Bush and his inner circle have made no final decisions about retargeting them to do so any time soon. Elsewhere, they will proceed with the step-by-step caution that has characterised their Afghan gameplan. This is what Bush means by a “long war”.

US policy remains heavily influenced by risk analysis. Donald Rumsfeld, the ineffably smug, highly popular US defence secretary who is effectively running Bush’s war, loses no opportunity to remind Americans that while the Afghan campaign has been almost bodybag-free, it is not over yet.

Politically, the post-September 11 priorities are unchanged. The White House remains fixated on “getting” Osama bin Laden, finishing off the Taliban leadership, and destroying what Bush calls Al Qaeda’s “sophisticated caves”. Yet even once Afghanistan is subdued, the elimination of Al Qaeda-linked groups in the up to 40 or so countries in which “cells” are said to exist is likely to be the ongoing, primary objective.

Although force is not ruled out — Bush dangled the possibility again this week on television — the wider war will be pursued largely by non-military methods. Easier targets than Iraq will be tackled first; potential candidates include Somalia and Sudan, Indonesia and the Philippines, Bosnia and Uruguay — anywhere that the terrorist trail may lead.

Likewise, the US is working up its capabilities in and around Somalia. US warships are on station and the navy is flying surveillance missions. Washington is also said to be looking at closer cooperation with Ethiopia, against the day when action against supposed Al Qaeda supporters in Somalia may be deemed necessary.

Other states are being cobbled by other means, sometimes by the use of proxies. The US has no diplomatic relations with Iran — but Britain does, and British foreign secretary Jack Straw has made two trips to Tehran since Sept 11. Washington does not expect the mullahs’ support. But Britain and other EU countries have helped gain their acquiescence.

Given the CIA role in Afghanistan, US covert operations are expected to make a big, silent comeback. The emerging “Bush doctrine” could in theory be made to apply to North Korea, Iran or Syria as much as Iraq. But when it comes to possible future US military action, only Baghdad is singled out.

This process has less to do with the war on terrorism and more to do with old enmities and present-day geostrategy. Saddam symbolises a threatening defiance of America’s will that the Bushmen, pre-Sept 11, detested - and that, post-Sept 11, they will no longer tolerate. —Dawn/The Guardian News Service.