PAKISTAN had a bumper wheat crop in 1999-2000. Despite water shortage, farmers succeeded in producing 19.2 million tones of wheat the last year.

This wasn’t as good as the year before but considering the constraints, a remarkable achievement. What kind of results should be expected from wheat-sowing that has commenced in Sindh and would be undertaken in Punjab in the next few days?

The ground conditions are all in the negative; they are forbidding. The last crop left growers in a spin as corruption; inefficiency and promotion of vested interests reigned supreme in the procurement drive of provincial governments. Well-connected landowners reaped a rich harvest by disposing off their produce at the official rate while small landowners were made to run from pillar to post to sell their wheat. Success eluded them all the way.

Official rate was a far cry. They had no buyers even at substantially lower prices. Most of them had no option but to accept whatever was pushed down their parched throats. Quite a few had an even more miserable deal and were left staring at the unsold result of their sweat and toil. They were simply skinned off.

In the one year period between the harvesting seasons of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001, officials either did not realize the problems that could not conceivably have been ignore,d did not bother to attend to them or lacked imagination and initiative to resolve them.

Storage capacity could not accommodate stocks from 1999-2000. No effort was undertaken to enhance it. Sufficient financial resources were unavailable to procure the crop of 2000-2001. Whatever advantages the farmers had gained from the first crop, were more than offset by the second.

Although farmers did not get the official rate for their wheat, the high yield per acre in 1999-2000 was translated in to reasonable profit. Next year, declined produce and low price fell way short of investment This adds up to frustrating farmers. Their motivation for producing a good crop has been a casualty. This backdrop has pitted cultivators of this year’s wheat against heavy odds.

A significant negative development has been reduced water supply during the last two years; it was acute for the last crop. Last year, there was a shortage of about 40 per cent of water; assessments for the new crop place the loss in water resources at 55 per cent.

From the look of things, this may be an optimistic estimate. The summer season is over. Snows are not to melt anymore. There have been no rains so far and forecasts spell a longish period of dry weather. The officially notified 55 percent shortfall is likely to be on the lower side. the prediction of the Governor of Sindh of about 70 per cent shortage of water for the province he presides over seems an accurate evaluation of resources, not just for Sindh but Punjab as well.

Punjab’s farmers have been meeting their irrigation requirements from ground water, a practice widely resorted to for some years and intensively followed last year. As a result, ground water has receded to a dangerously low level.

Pumping out water from a greater depth would cost a higher bill of electricity to growers. That would add to their investment in the crop, more so as electricity changers were recently revised upwards.

Electricity is however not the only source of the fiscal woes of farmers. Fertilizers and pesticides have registered a price hike; transportation has become more expensive. Diesel burnt for running tractors doesn’t come cheap either.

There is an all round escalation. Its cost for the farming sector has not been worked out bunt it is unlikely to be less than a 15 to 20 per cent addition to the cost of wheat production per acre in comparison with what it was last year.

There is much talk of introducing conservation agriculture. It saves costs and enhances yield and appears to be just the prescription for an agriculture sector in the grip of multiple problems ranging from scarcity of water to inequitable market practices. Their wide application has the potential of bailing out the sector.

But the use conservation technologies are so far in an embryonic stage. The crash programme required to sustain agriculture growth through them is nowhere in sight. The federal government should provide but it is slumbering on this count, as indeed on many other issues.

The lay of the land does not promise a crop of hope that would sustained newly attained self sufficiency in wheat for domestic needs. In case of a shortfall, imports would become inevitable. In the current economic crisis, the government can ill afford wheat import bill.

But the situation is not fate accompli. It can be redeemed. Two measures would be essential to boost output. One, raise support price for wheat to a realistic level; the new peruse should at least underwriter additional expenditure of wheat production at the farm level. What this really means is that instead of paying foreign agriculturists for imported wheat, the authorities should divert the wheat import expenses to the domestic sector and encourage Pakistan’s farmers. And two, restore the shattered confidence of the farming community.

There is no reason for farmers to trust the establishment. Procurement drives have been serving vested interests at the cost of small owners. Quality of inputs is dubious for them. Not just that: how can they rely on an administration that has not honoured a solemn pledge made by no less a person than the Chief Executive who had assured of the protection of the farmer’s rights.

Rhetoric would not suffice in this situation; only concrete, non-revocable measures would convince farmers. If the government acts like a middleman and backs its plans with financial support, the farmers would, in all likelihood, produce a positive response.

A small but reasonable amount as advance payment per acre plus guaranteed purchase and immediate payment of an estimated quantity on harvesting the crop would go a long way towards motivating farmers who are currently in deeply frustrated and look at the government as a component of vested interest Mafia representing and unjust and exploitative system.