KARACHI, March 19: Amid little anxiety among the traders and importers over duration of war between the US and Iraq, the commodity markets have yet to witness either any buying euphoria or price spiral of essential commodities in the wake of a possible US attack on Iraq.

Traders and importers have ruled out shortage of essential items, saying that market has enough stocks of around two months to handle any crisis like situation.

However, according to chairman, Pakistan Commodity Importers Association (PCIA), Raees Ashraf Tarmohammad, traders and importers in the city’s main hub of commodity markets — Jodia Bazar and its adjacent markets — were in a fix as 90 per cent of buying and selling activities have virtually come to a standstill in the last one week.

“There is an status quo position in the market. People are in a wait-and-see position,” he said, adding that “problems may hit the markets in case the US-led war prolongs.”

On the other hand, retail markets are also yet to feel the pinch of hovering war clouds. General secretary, Karachi Retail Grocers Group (KRGG), Farid Qurieshi, said the market was passing through a silence mood and buyers were virtually not in a hurry to pile up stocks in the wake of war jitters. He said retailers had sufficient stocks for one month to cope with any crisis.

“Any traffic jam in sea routes coupled with levy of war risk surcharge by major shipping lines will create problems in import and export of essential commodities,” he said.

Mr Raees also ruled out any shortfall or crisis in wheat as Pakistan has been exporting it for the last two years and the crop situation has been satisfactory.

In pulses, he claimed currently Pakistan’s 90 per cent crop of various pulses has been satisfactory and the country is dependent on only 10 per cent imports.

Meanwhile, chairman, Karachi Wholesale Grocers Association, Anis Majeed, said the crop of gram pulse, which commenced from April, would range between 800,000 and 900,000 tons this year as compared to the last year’s 500,000-600,000. Dependence on imports will curtail this year as Pakistan usually imports 100,000-150,000 tons every year.

Import of pulses in July-February 2002-03 stood at 333,317 tons ($97 million) as compared to 262,162 tons ($79 million), showing a rise of 23 per cent in value and 27 per cent in quantity, say figures of Federal Bureau of Statistics.

In milk powder, prices have gone up to Rs3,150 per 25 kg from Rs2,900 in the last 15 days as a result of rise in global prices to $1,800 per ton from $1,300 per ton, Abdul Rahim Janoo, chairman, Milk Powder Importers Committee, PCIA, said, adding that the price hike has nothing to do with the war fear in the Middle East. He said production of milk usually drops in winter season in European counties.

Makers of Nido Milk has also increased the prices of 1,000 gram soft pack to Rs207 from Rs184.

Pakistan imported 6,938 tons of milk, cream and milk food for infants worth $13.6m in July-February 2002-03, as compared to $4,455 tons ($10.1 million) in the same period of 2001-02.

PCIA chief, Raees Ashraf, added that import of milk powder was showing a constant drop in the last few years as the country imported 40,000 tons every year during 1990-95, dropping to 12,000-15,000 tons in 1998 and to 8,000-10,000 tons in the last three years.

On edible oil, he forecasted no shortage as importers and multinationals usually manage stocks of one to two months. However, price hike in global markets will have a negative impact on local prices. Pakistan imported edible oil (palm and soyabean oil) of 817,861 tons ($358 million) in July-February 2002-03, as compared to 773,901 tons ($240 million) in the corresponding period of previous fiscal.

Giving stock position of rice, chairman, Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP), Abdul Rahim Janoo, said the country had enough stocks of 350,000 tons of basmati and 200,000- 250,000 tons of Irri and there will be no shortage of rice.

However, he feared that the war may affect rice exports to the West bound destinations like the Middle East and Europe by 35 per cent, out of total Pakistan’s exports. However, the flow of exports to the East bound countries will remain unaffected.

Rice exports (basmati and others) in July-February 2002-03 went up by 14 per cent in value to $335 million (1,20 million tons) from $293 million (1.14 million tons) in the last eight months of 2001-02.

Rice domestic consumption in 2001-02 stood at 2.3 million tons, out of total 3.8 million tons total production. For 2002- 03, local consumption is estimated at 2.4 million tons, out of projected production of four million tons, while 1.6 million tons have been targeted for export to fetch $460 million, Janoo said.

The Subzi Mandi in Superhighway has not reacted negatively on war hysteria and consumers, including retailers, have been buying greens at a normal pace, showing no signs of panic to build up inventories. “The Mandi is abundant with stocks of essential vegetables,” chairman of Falahi Anjuman Wholesale Vegetable Market, Super Highway, Haji Shahjehan, said.