WASHINGTON: While US President George W. Bush insists that many countries are eager to join what he calls a “coalition of the willing”, a more apt name may be “coalition of the coerced”, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Institute for Policy Studies, a progressive Washington think tank.

While some European leaders appear genuinely committed to Washington’s drive to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein despite massive public opposition, most of the 34 governments that Bush may be counting as coalition members appear less than enthusiastic at best, says the report.

“Almost all, by our count, join only through coercion, bullying, bribery, or the implied threat of US action that would directly damage the interests of the country,” adds the 13-page report. “This ‘coalition of the coerced’ stands in direct conflict with democracy.”

In most nations, including those most closely allied to the United States, over 70 per cent of the public opposes US military action against Iraq, according to the report, “Coalition of the Willing or Coalition of the Coerced: How the Bush Administration Influences Allies in its War on Iraq”.

The degree to which other countries and the United Nations are perceived as supporting US policy toward Iraq is considered crucial to the administration’s efforts to rally support at home. A solid majority of US public opinion has consistently told pollsters over the past year that while they support military action against Baghdad, they do so on the condition that Washington has international support.

Earlier this week a TIME/CNN poll found that 57 per cent of the public said the final decision on invading Iraq should be in the hands of the UN Security Council, not up to Bush.

The administration also hopes for UN authorization to enhance its chances of getting other nations to help cover the huge financial and peacekeeping costs resulting from a US invasion and occupation.

That is one reason why the United States, Britain and Spain — all Security Council members that support war — submitted a draft resolution earlier this week that declares that Iraq has missed its “final opportunity” to disarm peacefully, remains in “material breach” of its obligations to the Council, and thus faces “serious consequences”, which implies an authorisation for military force.

To take effect, any draft resolution must be approved by at least nine members of the 15-member Council. At the same time, it cannot be vetoed by any of the permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States.

Most analysts believe that Washington currently has four supporting votes, the three co-sponsors plus Bulgaria, while France, Germany, Russia, China and Syria will either abstain or vote ‘no’.

As a result, US pressure — in the form of both carrots and sticks — is now being brought to bear on the six undecided countries: Mexico and Chile from Latin America; Angola, Cameroon and Guinea from Africa; and Pakistan, the lone Muslim country.

While US officials insist publicly that they are not bargaining over members’ votes, this has evoked widespread scepticism — not to say derision — even from the generally credulous White House press corps, which broke out in laughter on Tuesday after White House spokesman Ari Fleischer rejected a question that suggested that “the leaders of other nations are buyable”.

Indeed, portents indicate that the six undecided members have a great deal to gain if they throw in with Washington. Turkey, where public opinion is running 95 per cent against co- operating with Washington, has been offered some $15 billion in immediate aid and loan guarantees in exchange for providing a northern launching pad for the invasion, while Israel, Egypt, and Jordan are expected to ask and get billions more of their own.

But the report points out that dollars and guarantees are not the only way that Washington can exercise leverage over undecided members of the Security Council or the broader “coalition” it is counting on for support.

On the military side, it said, Washington maintains an effective veto over nations wishing to join the NATO, which helps explain why Bulgaria has lined itself up behind the United States so early in the game.

Washington also provides military aid or other forms of military support or subsidized military sales to well over 150 countries worldwide. Although French aid programmes to Cameroon and Guinea are substantially greater than what Washington offers, the United States has recently offered a substantial military training programme to Conakry — which assumes the presidency of the Security Council in March — to help it fight a Liberia- backed insurgency.

Pakistan has been counting on buying substantial amounts of subsidized US military equipment since Washington lifted its 10- year ban on weapons sales to Islamabad after the Sept 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

On the economic front, US bilateral aid is rarely as significant as Washington’s status as the world’s largest economy and export market and as its influence in major international financial institutions, including the World Bank and the IMF.

The US represents a huge market for Mexico, Pakistan, and Chile, in particular, and reports of pressure by Mexican businessmen on President Vicente Fox to back Bush have already surfaced.

Similarly, the administration enjoys wide latitude in deciding what countries it should buy oil from in stocking its strategic reserves. As oil exporters, Cameroon, Angola, and Mexico all stand to benefit.

Given the US Treasury’s influence on the World Bank and the IMF, US officials are particularly confident about bringing the three African countries around, despite the tight historic relations that exist between France and francophone Africa, of which Cameroon and Guinea are a part. US opposition can delay, if not defeat, loans on which both countries depend.

The administration has also asked for lobbying help from other allies, including Japan — which has a large aid programme in Africa — and Portugal’s Prime Minister Jose Durao Barroso, a friend of dos Santos.—Dawn/InterPress News Service.