HANOVER: Gerhard Schroeder, already weakened by a precipitous slide in his popularity, faces an electoral test in his home state that threatens to leave him a “lame duck” chancellor, unable to guarantee the passage of legislation and dependent on support from the conservative opposition.

Lower Saxony — the state that spreads over the north German plain — is one of two choosing a new legislature and government tomorrow.

But unlike Hesse, where the incumbent governor, a Christian Democrat, is virtually assured of re-election, Lower Saxony looks set for a change.

Polls show the Social Democrats, led by Sigmar Gabriel, heading for a crushing defeat. The latest sounding gave the pudgy but pugnacious governor a mere 36 per cent of the vote.

That represents a drop of 12 points since last autumn when the chancellor, fresh from his re-election, revealed a gaping hole in Germany’s public finances and started to fill it with an unappetising mix of tax rises and benefit cuts.

Mr Gabriel tried initially to distance himself from the government in Berlin, repeatedly challenging Mr Schroeder on tax and other issues. But in the final stages of the campaign they have had to share a platform in the interests of maintaining party unity.

Like a tired conjuror, the chancellor seems determined to keep pulling the same rabbit out of his hat.

He was helped to victory in last September’s general election by his opposition to war in Iraq, spiced with a pinch of nationalism.

Earlier this week, he drew enthusiastic applause from a campaign audience by pledging: “What we do and don’t do is decided in Berlin and nowhere else.” But pollsters believe that a policy which sold well in the federal election will have slight impact at state level and that the voters in Lower Saxony have become increasingly susceptible to the charms of the conservatives’ candidate, Christian Wulff.

His party is forecast to take 48 per cent of the ballot with a campaign heavily focusing on his clean-cut image. The slogan on many of the Christian Democrat posters around Hanover, the state capital, is simply: “Wulff”.

Wolfgang Nowak, who was Chancellor Schroeder’s policy adviser until last year, believes that, whatever the outcome, his former boss will be the loser . “If Sigmar Gabriel wins, then it will be a stunning Sigmar Gabriel victory. But, if he loses, Schroeder loses.” And in more ways than one. A defeat in Lower Saxony would deal a severe blow to the chancellor’s personal standing.

Mr Schroeder launched his political career from Lower Saxony where he was governor until five years ago.

More importantly, a defeat in his home state would restrict his ability to govern Germany as a whole.

Lower Saxony is the country’s second biggest state, accounting for six of the 69 seats in the regionally based upper house of parliament, or Bundesrat.

Since last April when they won control of neighbouring Saxony-Anhalt, the Christian Democrat-led states have occupied 35 of those seats.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service