IT seems like a difficult winter ahead. The nervous private sector is trying to downplay the gravity of the situation, post-Salala incident.

Aware of the sensitivities of the power play, senior corporate executives choose words cautiously to express their anxieties over future economic prospects that look grim.

When contacted, different business segments sounded verbose on national pride/sovereignty issues in bilateral ties with the US but did not sound optimistic while commenting on the state of the wobbly economy bound by numerous links with the now hostile West.

Some considered fanning of confrontational sentiments counter-productive. They believed that foreign policy needed to be driven by economic paradigm and not by perceived security concerns. Pakistan’s security and sovereignty lay in a robust and self-reliant economy.

American companies doing businesses in Pakistan hope that the current difficult phase will pass without causing any dent to their interests. They believe that for their principals, Pakistani operations are insignificant to cause an alarm. And even if they were to review their exposure in this country, there would be a time lag. They rule out the possibility of using any pressure from the US giant firms, Citi, P&G, Nestle, Eli Lilly, IBM, DuPont, Microsoft, etc, on their government to adopt a more accommodative posture towards Pakistan.

The officers in the federal economic ministries were avoiding press and higher-ups excused themselves, citing sensitivities.

Those who were too polite to turn the request down did not have much to say but to advise this scribe to wait for the temperatures to cool down.

People on the lower end of the income scale, losing struggle for a decent living in a sluggish economy, face a dismal future.

Employment generation and poverty reduction are not even on the agenda of the policymakers. With no significant fresh investment coming and no new jobs being created, the rising street crimes are no surprise.

The worsening geo-political situation has led to volatility in stock, commodity and currency markets. The shares market fell, rupee depreciated and traders and speculators off loaded stocks to switch to safer options last week. The KSE-100 index was down 101 points over the week as volumes slumped by six per cent. The rupee fell to all-time low in a week. From 87 it slided to over 90 to a dollar in the open market. The retailers and stockists in Karachi and other cities reported lower Muharram-related sales compared to last year.

Mian Abrar Ahmed, President Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said business community was ready to do all it takes to defend the national sovereignty. “We support our security forces and the government’s decision to stand up to America. The US is trying to cripple Pakistan as it dreads the country’s potential to emerge as a leader of the Muslim Bloc,” he said.

He argued for reducing dependence on the West and closer regional economic ties and for moving ahead on Iran-Pakistan-India oil pipeline to address energy issues for the economic revival. “Why should we let others dictate us? They deliberately limit our access to the Western markets. The country has shown resilience before and with an independent foreign policy it can touch new heights within no time.”

“The path we have chosen for ourselves is suicidal. The crisis has arrived and the future is murky”, warned a senior business executive.

“We need a change. We must stop looking at the world and our problems from security perspective. The economic paradigm should dictate security options if at all we want to progress. Pakistan needs to transform itself from a security to a welfare state”.

To a question as to how will this happen because a majority of the powerful business class seems comfortable with the old set-up, he said the impression was incorrect. “It is the fear of powers that be that discourages people from speaking their mind. No one is naïve. They understand but have no spine to stand up,” he added.

“It has added to the lack of feel good factor which cannot be a good omen for business. Less business means slow progress” Kamran Y Mirza, CEO of Pakistan Business Council, commented.

“Mixing politics with economics is likely to produce lethal concoction,” said an analyst.

A prominent Lahore tycoon said the business can make do without the US. “Foreign aid has never reached people, so let it be.

With resolve and national spirit, we can endure their pressure and rise stronger after the crisis,” he asked not to be named.

“We are ready to bear the brunt. Our business interests are subservient to national interests. I strongly condemn unprovoked premeditated attack by the US,” Haroon Rashid, President, Pakistan-US Business Council, stated.

If you stop watching news channels at night, you would not feel as gloomy”, remarked Humayun Bashir, President, American Business Council, candidly. “We hold review meetings amongst our 60 members at regular intervals. The going is good so far.

“In fact, many American companies such as Nestle, P&G and Eli Lilly have ambitious expansion plans. We hope all stakeholders realise the stakes and collect around the table to deal with issues in a cordial fashion for the benefit of one and all,” he concluded.