PARIS, Nov 18: According to Jean-Francois Giannesini, an official of the Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), the French- based petroleum industry thinktank, the price of oil could be affected in two different ways following a US attack on Iraq, but all depends on whether it goes off without a hitch. Both scenarios presume that the attack will take place in January.

According to his “rose scenario,” Giannesini presumes that the US attack will take the form of a blitzkrieg, that it will go off smoothly, and will result in the setting up of a democratic regime in Baghdad.

The new government would in turn, says Giannesini, open up the Iraqi oil market to Western companies with the price of oil expected to plunge immediately by $6 to $20 a barrel. This would lead, he says, to the “implosion” of OPEP, leading Iraq to put on the market an important quantity of oil, bringing the price of a barrel further down to $15.

But, if ever the US attack is badly-prepared or meets greater than expected resistance or results in an immediate destabilization of the region, this could in turn result in such “collateral damage” as the destruction of the Iraqi petroleum infrastructure.

In the case of this scenario — which he labels as “black scenario,” the price of oil would jump in no time to approximately 40 dollars per barrel.