ISLAMABAD, Sept 30: Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) in its meeting on October 7 is expected to set 20.27 million ton target for the 2003 wheat crop, Dawn learnt on good authority here on Monday.

The production target for the next crop envisages about 10.26 per cent increase.

According to official figures, the domestic requirements of wheat for the year 2002-03 will be a little over 20.74 million tons. Thanks to record harvests of 1999-2000 and 2000-01, 3.697 million tons will be carried forward. Together with the harvest of 2001-02, the total availability at the start of 2002- 03 has been estimated as 22.089 million tons.

To be chaired by the Federal Minister for Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL), Khair Mohammad Junejo, the meeting will be attended by all the four provincial agriculture ministers, provincial agriculture secretaries and senior officials of economic ministries, etc.

FCA is a bi-annual feature designed to review the progress of the previous cropping season and give policy guidelines for the new crop. The forthcoming FCA meeting will mainly focus on the Rabi 2002-03.

The final estimate of 2001-02 wheat crop has been put at 18.392 million tons - 8pc short of the target, according to the source, although the farmers had commenced sowing of wheat within the broad time limit set by the experts, particularly in the areas of cotton and rice.

It was, however, delayed in the fields occupied by sugarcane. The late removal of sugarcane crop caused late sowing of wheat — a problem the policy-makers have yet to find a solution for.

Another problem was persistent dry weather coupled with the scarcity of irrigation water to the detriment of the wheat crop in irrigated areas. Prolonged drought played havoc with the crop in Barani areas as well. Nevertheless, the farmers in irrigated areas managed the crop properly in concert with the Agriculture Extension Services.

These factors also contributed to fewer acres for the wheat crop 2001-02. The total area dedicated to the staple food of Pakistanis has been put at 79,50,700 hectares as against the target of 84,10,000 hectares.

The yield in 2001-02 has been estimated at 2313 kg per hectare, as against the 2378 kg stipulated as per target. Province-wise analysis of the data shows Balochistan leading the other provinces. In production, it overshot the target (0.6 million tons) by 8.4pc. It was trailed by Punjab, which achieved 94.1 per cent of the target (15.64 million tons).

The target given to NWFP was 1.06 million tons and its wheat output has been put at 0.92 million tons - 12.8pc short of the target. Sindh lagged behind all the other provinces with a score of 77.8pc. As against its target of 2.7 million tons, its output stood at 2.10 million tons.

When compared with the actual achievements of 2000-01, the output in 2002-01 recorded a decline of 3.3 per cent. The total production in 2000-01 was 19.01 million tons. In terms of acreage (82,61,000 hectares) in 2001-02, the shortfall was of 3.8 per cent as compared to the preceding year.

Nevertheless, the comparison is far from even. For example, Sindh dedicated 7.9pc more area to wheat in 2001-02 than in the previous year, but its output was 94.4pc of that harvested in 2000-01. Conversely, the wheat growing area in NWFP was 13pc less, but its output exceeded the previous year’s output by 21.7pc. The acreage in Balochistan was 0.9pc more, while its output surpassed that of the previous year by 6pc.

In Punjab, percentages of area and production did not deviate much from each other with acreage and production reported as 95.8pc and 95.4pc respectively of previous year’s figures.

The output figures are a function of per hectare yield. In Punjab, it dropped from 2469 kg in 2000-01 to 2460, and in Sindh from 2745 kg to 2400 kg. By contrast, the yields in NWFP and Balochistan increased, respectively, from 860 kg and 1895 kg to 1204 and 1951 kg.

As regards the 2002-03 crop, the proposed targets are as follows: area: 82,80,500 hectares; production: 2,02,77,800 tons; and yield: 2448.9 kg.