KARACHI, Aug 26: Emergence of Pakistan on the world wheat export map, a slight fall in international oil prices and stabilization of dollar-rupee parity in post-September 11, 01 is bringing a gradual positive change in Pakistan’s import structure which looks sustainable.

A detailed analysis of 10 months import during July 01 to April 02 shows that share of consumer goods has fallen appreciably with a simultaneous rise in import of capital goods, raw material for Pakistan’s engineering industry and also raw material import for Pakistan’s consumer industry.

Capital goods now constitute 27.4 per cent of Pakistan’s total import of about Rs509 billion. Official figures show that import value of capital goods jumped from more than Rs128 billion to Rs139 billion.

There has been an appreciable increase in import demand for textile, construction, mining and other industrial machinery and equipments during the outgoing fiscal 01-02 indicating that industrial enterprises have showing signs of revival.

Textile machinery import jumped to about Rs22 billion from Rs18.6 billion, power generating machines over Rs10 billion, telecommunication apparatus over Rs8 billion, construction and mining machines Rs5.6 billion and office machines and automatic data processing equipment worth over Rs11 billion.

“Revival of industrial process now depends more on the export market rather than domestic factors,” a well known business leader of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry said who pointed out that higher utility tariff still remains the main cause of production cost escalation.

Pakistani exporters face an all round recession in export markets in the US, Europe and Japan and are unable to obtain reasonable prices of their products. “Good money and handsome prices will follow the consolidation of our products’ foothold in export market,” Commerce Minister Abdul Razak Dawood said in a press conference in Karachi last month.

As capital goods import showed a surge, the demand for raw material for local capital goods industry also showed slight increase. The share of metals and other raw materials for Pakistan’s capital good industry increased to 6.3 per cent from 5.3 per cent in 00-01. In rupee terms the imports increased from Rs27 billion to Rs32 billion during 01-02.

Iron and steel import went up by almost 36 per cent during the last fiscal indicating some activities in re-rolling perhaps from rise in demand from construction industry. Import of steel and iron increased to Rs17.6 billion from about Rs13 billion.

Raw material demand for the local consumer industry remained by and large unchanged at 54.5 per cent slight up and down. In rupee terms, the import value of raw material for consumer goods was about Rs278 billion in first ten months of 01-02 and 00-01.

A major and pronounced shift to wheat export from import has been the most the conspicuous cause for bringing down the share of consumer goods in Pakistan’s total import structure. Import of consumer items came down from about Rs75 billion in 00-01 to over Rs59 billion in 01-02. Its share also fell to 11.7 per cent in 01-02 from 14.7 per cent.

One of the major factors for this positive shift in import structure is 13.6 per cent decline in oil import bill. It came down to Rs137.63 billion during July 01 to April 02 period. Market analysts believe that a further fall in dollar value vis-a-vis rupee may encourage Pakistani industrialists to increase their imports of raw material and equipment.