0
MAZAR-I-SHARIF: United during the military campaign to oust the Taliban last year, the factions that made up the Northern Alliance are now again engaged in a dangerous battle for influence in Afghanistan’s troubled north.
Low level clashes or exchanges of fire between the rival Uzbek, Tajik or Hazara factions take place almost on a daily basis and would probably worsen if it was not for the calming influence of US forces and the threat of their B-52 bombers, analysts say.
“The situation is serious and has the potential to become even more serious,” said one Western observer in the northern town of Mazar-i-Sharif.
Of most concern is a long-standing rivalry between Uzbek General Abdul Rashid Dostum and his Tajik rival Usted Atta who enjoys the support of powerful Tajiks in Kabul, including Defence Minister Mohammad Qasim Fahim.
Observers say Atta’s Jamiat-i-Islami movement has been slowly expanding its influence in the region, by buying off or outflanking commanders of Dostum’s Junbish militia.
Jamiat forces now dominate the city of Mazar, traditionally the key to the north and supposedly shared between Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras.
The risk is that Dostum, still extremely powerful and popular among Uzbeks and Turkmens, will feel backed into a corner.
“The real power in the north is Dostum not (President Hamid) Karzai,” said another observer in Mazar. “Dostum is frustrated because of the support Atta is getting from Fahim, and if he is frustrated that is when he is dangerous.”
Publicly both Dostum and Atta are playing down their rivalry, blaming low level commanders for the clashes and saying they can sort out their differences.
“The problem is at a local level between small people,” Atta said last week. “Between the leaders in the northern region it has been friendly.”
It is argument that fails to convince many people in Mazar.
RIVALRY DATES BACK TO CIVIL WAR: The rivalry between the two men dates back to the start of the civil war which followed the downfall of the communists in 1992. Two years later Dostum’s forces ousted Atta from Mazar and sent him fleeing into the mountains.
Jamiat, then led by the late commander Ahmad Shah Masood, and Junbish later buried their differences in their efforts to counter the growing influence of the Taliban movement.
Both became key US allies and received money and ammunition from Washington during last year’s campaign to bring down the Taliban. The danger is they will now turn their weapons on each other.
Mazar-i-Sharif, as in the past, is a potential flashpoint. Lawlessness and criminality have become a major problem in the city. Armed men in uniform prey on locals — rape is common and many women say they still wear the burqa for protection.
Privately Junbish officials admit their frustration with a police force led by Atta’s brother Sida Mohammad, and say the city needs to be cleaned up.
The other main priority is disarming and demobilizing the rival militias dominating the north. The United Nations is trying to encourage this process, but apart from a couple of small-scale weapons handovers after clashes, it is not making any headway.
With trust between the two sides in rather short supply, it is an uphill task. The US military presence may be keeping a lid on the rivalry for the time being, but they will not be there for ever.
“The centre needs to get its act together and make some key appointments in the police and national security here,” said the first observer. “If they don’t the situation will deteriorate, patience will evaporate and little clashes will become bigger clashes.”
“It’s a golden opportunity we’re in the process of missing,” he said.—Reuters
