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BEIJING: Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s support for a referendum on the island’s independence caught its rival Beijing and supporter Washington flat footed and scuttled chances for talks on cross-strait trade ties in the near term.
But diplomats and analysts said on Tuesday that barring concrete steps by the island’s leader towards a referendum, prospects for full-blown crisis in the Taiwan Strait were remote.
While Beijing fumes at Chen’s manoeuvring, the hawkish People’s Liberation Army has yielded the driver’s seat on Taiwan policy to President Jiang Zemin and other leaders keen to pursue economic integration and peaceful reunification, they said.
China, preoccupied with its own leadership reshuffle, would rattle sabres and stage a few wargames, but was unlikely to provoke a crisis with the sort of missile tests that brought US aircraft carriers into the region in 1995-96.
And Chen’s gambit was unlikely to play well in Washington, which — despite vows to defend the island — would prefer not to add the Taiwan Strait to a list of hotspots ranging from Afghanistan and the Middle East to Iraq, diplomats said.
The Taiwan leader said on Saturday that holding a referendum was a “basic human right” and in reality there was “one country on each side” of the Taiwan Strait.
Analysts say Chen was angry at the recent loss of Nauru — one of Taiwan’s few allies — to Beijing’s diplomatic camp, frustrated at a lack of progress in cross-Strait ties since he took office in 2000 and eager to start rallying his Democratic Progressive Party ahead of elections in 2004.
BACKFIRE?: Emboldened by Bush administration pledges of weapons and vows to do “whatever it takes” to defend Taiwan, and seeing Beijing as distracted by the leadership succession, Chen decided to push the envelope, analysts said.
The result may have backfired, diplomats and analysts said, noting that so far Washington had responded merely by reaffirming its adherence to the “one China” policy, a barely disguised disowning of Chen’s remarks.
“I suspect Washington is a bit unimpressed by it. It might make them think again about the messages they are sending,” said a Western diplomat in Beijing.
The Chinese leadership, which early this year made a subtle shift in policy that opened the door for better ties with Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party but is now embroiled in a contentious leadership reshuffle, also was surprised.
Beijing, which sees the island as a rebel province and has threatened attack if it declared independence, said on Monday the remarks showed Chen was leading Taiwan to disaster and told him to “rein the horse in before the precipice.”
Diplomats said China’s response, while strong, had been careful, and few suspect Beijing is ready for a row over Taiwan.
“The last thing they want, really, is a real flare-up of this during the transition,” said the Western diplomat.
Lai Hongyi, research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute, said he expected Jiang to keep the People’s Liberation Army in check.
The PLA’s influence over Taiwan policy was stronger in 1995-96, when the mainland held menacing wargames and missile tests to intimidate Taiwan, only to watch voters hand Lee Teng-hui, Beijing’s nemesis, a landslide victory.
Jiang, who before that crisis had wooed Taiwan to reunify with a call for high-level talks and exchanges, has since strengthened his grip on Taiwan policy through the Communist Party’s leading body on affairs with the island.
“Jiang probably won’t allow the hawks to take action. He will allow them to speak, but won’t allow them to act,” Lai said.
PLA IN THE BOX: Analysts say the PLA, still unable to compete with Taiwan’s superior forces, is busy modernizing its military capability and weaponry.
In a way, it has accepted backing for its modernization programme in exchange for some say in Taiwan policy and this was unlikely to change even following the leadership succession, said a diplomat in Beijing.
“The military has not been entirely mollified, but they know that modernizing of equipment is being taken seriously, that’s their reward,” the diplomat said. “But in terms of letting them out of the box again, I think it’s pretty unlikely.”
Future moves would largely depend on whether Chen took action towards a referendum, as well as the reaction in Washington.
Chen appears to have shifted to damage control, adding Taiwan’s top policy maker on China to a delegation to Central America so she could reassure US officials during a stopover in New York that Chen’s remarks did not signal a policy change.
“China will wait and see if the United States supports this and if Taiwan keeps on singing or douses the fire,” said Chen Teh-sheng, a China expert with National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations in Taiwan.—Reuters
