STOCKS MAINTAINED an uppish leaning during the previous week as the investment-friendly budget and the fading fears of war with India, followed by the positive statements from the Indian high-ups, continued to inspire fresh buying from all and sundry under the lead of institutional traders.

But the post-budget breakthrough is still awaited. The new week could see a major change in the market psychology, as by that the time investors would have to decide on which sectors to build-up long positions.

Although, law and order situation worries investors, despite lot of confidence-building measures, and the analysts fear it could take its toll halting the upward trend, though temporarily.

But some others said the working results and the dividend announcements are due from some leading companies, including the Hub-Power and these could intensify the post-budget selective buying euphoria.

Though a bit late, the post-budget rally did manifest itself in a big way as investors covered the positions at lower levels after having fully digested the likely positive impact of the fiscal measures on share business. But this proved short-lived owing to the weekend selling.

Despite a progressive easing in the military standoff on borders with India, after some positive steps taken by both governments, a section of investors fear that the danger of war was still there.

But the investment-friendly budget is expected to finally prevail as all basic indicators point to a sustained bull-run in the sessions to come.

“With the forex reserves at a record high of over $6 billion, the remittances at $2.5 billion, and the easing of border situation, only fool could miss the attractive bait of the current lower levels”, most analysts believe.

After having fallen to week’s lowest level of 1,760 points, the KSE 100-share index recovered to finish around 1,779.30 as compared to 1,768 points, a week earlier. The market capitalization was maintained around an average figure of Rs412 billion, up Rs1.663 billion from the previous Rs410.213 billion.

Trading volume at one stage fell to a recent low level of 37 million shares, as predictions of a strong post-budget rally aided by a combination of corporate relief, was delayed for a couple sessions.

The post-budget lull was caused because of the fact that the investors were not inclined to re-enter market after having full view of the fiscal measures and their likely impact on the market. Mid-week saw the advent of institutional support followed by the general buying from those holding short positions, notably on those counters, being major beneficiaries of the budget, including the polyester fibre units, the modarabas, and the mutual funds.

“What ails the post-budget market no one could precisely explain”, one broker says, adding, “lack of support could be the main reason behind the sluggishness but why in the backdrop of a positive budget”. Early week comments on the market’s post-budget lacklustre performance were identical from others also.

“All leading brokers have gone to beaches to beat the current heat wave and the power interruptions”, said an analyst jokingly, and “all are praying for rains before resuming their share businesses”.

A single-session low turnover of 37 million shares, far below the average volume in most of the active scrips, is not a sham for a market riding on the capital base of $7 billion, one analysts asks. And added to the extremely narrow price changes mostly in few paisa, the jobbers and day traders stole the day’s limelight.

Investors seem to be awaiting the advent of institutional support before resuming their post-budget moping operations, it too appears to be in planning stage and the consequent sluggishness. However, mid-week saw its return. Both the stock analysts, and the brokers were early out to give number of reasons, including some negative fiscal measures in the new budget, no one is inclined to bell the cat.

“Five days after the budget, is enough time to go through all fiscal measures related to the stock trading”, says an analyst “but predicts a budget related rebound could be delayed it will certainly manifest itself by next week”.

The market has already digested the negative impact of the border situation as was reflected by the easing of tensions and there is a possibility of a bull ambush anytime, he adds.

Some of the leading shares came in for modest support and finished further higher for, the PSO, the Shell Pakistan, the Packages, Dawood Cotton, Kohat Cement, the Tri-Pack Films, Gul Ahmed Textiles, the IGI Insurance, Mari Gas, Shams Textiles, Pakistan Tobacco, Gatron Industries and the Wyeth Pakistan.

Other gainers included the KASB and Co, Umer Fabrics, Nishat Chunian, Ellcot Spinning, the Custodian Modarba, the Unity Modaraba and many others, rising sharply higher amid active trading.

Losers were led by the Treet Corporation, Dawood Hercules, Abbott Pakistan, the Shell Gas LPG and the Lever Brothers, and Shafiq Textiles, the Millat Tractors, Fateh Textiles, the Grays of Cambridge and many others. The losses were, however, modest.

Traded volume fell to a lowest weekly total at 400 million shares from the previous 700 million, shares owing to the absence of the leading bargain-hunters and the speculators, apparently awaiting the advent of institutional support.

The Hub-Power, the PTCL, the PSO, the National Bank were the top volume leaders followed by the MCB, the ICI Pakistan, the Engro Chemical,the Sui Northern Gas, Nishat Mills, Adamjee Insurance, the Telecard, the KESC, the WorldCall, the Unity Modaraba, Chakwal Cement and several others. —Muhammad Aslam