THE election for 11 Senate seats next month is nothing less than a real spring in the lives of lawmakers, who had spent million of rupees to bag their seats on Feb 18, 2008. All the 11 Senators - seven elected on general, two on technocrat and two on women seats - are going to retire in March 2009, which includes six Mutahidda Majlis-i-Amal`s senators, two (father and son) independents and each one from Awami National Party, Pakistan People`s Party and PPP (Sherpao).

The MMA is the biggest loser, which cannot bag more than one seat this time. After the Jamaat-i-Islami parted its ways with the six-party alliance, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam could not fetch more than 14 seats this time. JUI is the major opposition group in the Frontier assembly, but the ANP-PPP coalition government is said to have adjusted JUI in the next month`s Senate election.

According to the insiders, out of 11 seats, ANP will get six, PPP will take four and JUI will obtain one seat. The ANP (48), PPP (30) and JUI (14) make a grand total of 92 seats in the 124-seata House. But the other opposition groups - PPP-S, PML, PML-N and Independents - make-up a joint chunk of 32 seats.

It is (32) an even number, but it may bring a disaster for the coalition government, which has badly to accommodate the opposition MPAs in fresh recruitments and development schemes. Similarly, disgruntled and back-benchers in the treasury bench may join hands with the wealthy candidates contesting for the general Senate seats.

The retirement of two Senators - Gulzar Ahmed Khan and his son Waqar Ahmed Khan - has created an air of the festivity and jubilation in the columns of MPAs. Both - father and son - have been winning horses. They had won their Senate seats being independent candidates in 2003.

They may repeat the history.

The coalition partners are certain about their number theory and homework, but in power politics the mathematics does not work. In power game, sometimes 2+2 makes three and sometimes they turn out to be five. That is why the persons in possession with the gunny bags win the elections.

The ANP has many influential figures, who have good relations with the PPP and PML-N, and they may be an asset for it in future. They include Afzal Khan Lala, fighting his war like a lone crusader in fear-governed Swat, Latif Afridi, an old political activist and lawyer, Haji Mohammad Adeel, a polemist and orator, Afrasiab Khattak, ANP provincial chief, Zahid Khan, ANP information secretary, Mohammad Azam Hoti, Hasham Khan Babar and Humayun Khan, a former secretary of foreign affairs.

The PPP has formerly asked Sardar Ali Khan and Farhatullah Babar, press secretary of President Asif Ali Zardari to apply for party ticket. Others, who have applied for tickets, include Bahramand Khan Tangi, a former president of Zardari Release Committee and brother of Bashir Khan Tangi, killed in the Liaquat Bagh incident on Dec 27, 2007, Syed Ayub Shah, Khwaja Yawar Naseer, Syed Tahir Abbas and others.

Iqbal Zafar Jhagra and Sar Anjam Khan of the PML (N) may

also jump into the contest, but their party lacks required numbers. Anees Zeb Tahirkheli of the PPP (S), who is still siding with a break-away of the PPP, is also in the run. The weight of 11 independents may change the mathematics of ruling alliance. If the independent candidates win Senate seats, it will be a slap in the face of political parties not in the face of MPAs.