ISLAMABAD, June 13: Pakistan’s economy showed mixed trends during the outgoing financial year 2001-2002, achieving a 3.6 per cent GDP growth but witnessing a decline in revenues, exports, fixed investment, wheat, rice and cotton crops.

Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz, who released the Economic Survey 2001-2002 here on Thursday at a news conference, claimed that despite continued drought conditions and the Sept 11 and Dec 13 events of last year, the economy “has shown resilience” and could withstand any local or external pressure.

“There has been certain improvement in the economy but all is not well. Therefore, there is no room for complacency,” he further stated.

The real GDP has shown a humble recovery at 3.6 per cent when compared with the revised target of 3.3 per cent and the previous year’s 2.5 per cent.

According to the finance minister, the better 3.6 per cent growth was possible due to 1.4 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent growth in agriculture, manufacturing and services sector, respectively.

Had there been no effect of drought, the GDP growth could have been 4.7 per cent as against the target of 4 per cent in 2001-2002, he said.

According to the Survey, the domestic and foreign debt has shrunken, investment climate improved and budget deficit target achieved. The Gross National Product during the current financial year grew by 5.4 per cent as against 2.5 per cent recorded a year earlier. When translated into volume terms, the GNP stood at $65 billion.

Inflation rate, as measured by consumer price index, stood at 2.6 per cent during July-April as against 4.7 per cent in the corresponding period of last year. “This 2.6 per cent inflation is the lowest in three decades,” the finance minister claimed.

Major crops registered a negative growth of 0.5 per cent in 2001-2002, while minor crops grew slightly by 1.0 per cent. Wheat production was estimated at 18.475 million tonnes as against 19.024 million tonnes of last year, showing a decline of 2.9 per cent.

Likewise, rice production was estimated at 3.882 million tonnes in 2001-2002 as against 4.803 million tonnes of 2000-2001, thus showing a decline of 19.2 per cent.

Cotton production also went down from 10.732 million bales of last year to 10.613 million bales this year, registering a decrease of 1.1 per cent. Sugarcane production, however, increased by 10.2 per cent from 43.606 million tonnes of last year to 48.024 million tonnes this year.

Large-scale manufacturing registered a growth of 4.0 percent during the first nine months (July-March) as against the revised target of 3.2 per cent and last year’s impressive growth of 8.6 per cent. Small-scale manufacturing, on the other hand, continued to grow by 5.3 per cent in 2001-2002. The services sector grew by 5.1 per cent as against 4.8 per cent of 2000-2001.

The real per capita GNP at factor cost increased by 3.2 per cent in 2001-2002 as against a marginal increase of 0.2 per cent of last year. The per capita income is estimated at Rs26,413 per annum which is 9.2 per cent higher than last year.

Total and fixed investment declined to 13.9 per cent and 12.3 per cent of GDP respectively during the current financial year. The national savings as percentage of GDP have increased from 15.0 per cent posted last year to 15.4 per cent in 2001-2002, mainly on account of improvement in the current account deficit.

The fiscal deficit was estimated at 5.7 per cent of the GDP during 2001-2002 which, according to the finance minister, “has been adequately met by the government.”

There has been a monetary expansion of 9.5 per cent as against 9.3 per cent of last year. Net credit to public sector has decreased but the private sector was offered Rs35 billion and Aziz termed it “OK”.

Pakistan exports declined by 1.8 per cent to 7.3 billion dollar and import by 6.9 percent to 8.2 billion dollar during July-April 2001-2002 due to the continued world recession and economic fallout of Sept 11 events of last year.

He said exports were likely to cross $9 billion at the end of the financial year as against the original target of 10 billion dollar.

The current account balance during July-March 2001-2002 was surplus to the extent of 913 million dollar as against a deficit of 746 million dollar of the same period last year. Workers remittances doubled during July-April 2001-2002 and stood at 1.8 billion dollar and, according to the finance minister, will reach over 2 billion dollar by June 30 this year.

Trade deficit improved by 34.3 per cent in July-April and stood at 921 million dollar as against 1.4 billion dollar of last year.

Foreign exchange reserves have reached the 5.6 billion dollar mark, as of today, which, according to the finance minister, were expected to jump to over 6 billion dollar by the end of the current financial year. He said “de-dollarization” was still taking place as dollars were coming in against the previous trend of going out.

Revenues have declined and that was why the government reduced the revenue target from Rs442.3 billion to Rs414.3 billion. Domestic debt has shrunk by Rs147 billion and, as such, it saw a decline of 52.2 per cent in 2000-2001 to 44.3 per cent of 2001-2002. Similarly, external debt has dropped from 38 billion dollar of last year to 36 billion dollar in 2001-2002. As percentage of the GDP, there has been a reduction in the foreign debt from 63 per cent to 58 per cent.

Foreign Direct Investment and portfolio investment to the tune of $306m was achieved as against $130m of last year. “But we are not satisfied as it has to be increased,” Aziz said.

The finance minister told a reporter that Pakistan has got to increase its defence budget during the next financial year due to the tension in the region. However, he did not give any figure and said that the issue will be highlighted in his budget speech on June 15.

He termed his recent visit of Saudi Arabia and the UAE with the President “very fruitful”, adding that Pakistan’s friends “have always been helpful in every matter.”

He said $265m loan by the UAE had been finalized for infrastructure projects.