Otherwise a very illuminating document that gives incisive information on performance of the national economy in almost all the areas, the State Bank of Pakistan’s annual report for the year 2001-02 has given scant attention on the economic activities at the provincial level.
The report has taken to task the Central Board of Revenue (CBR) for”over ambitious revenue targets”. It warranted “frequent revisions during the course of the year” forcing the government to seek waiver from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for failing to meet the targets set under ten months standby facility. Yet when it comes to provinces, the report offers only seven-lines information to say that total resources transfers from the federal government to provinces was Rs 169.8 billion (FY01), short by Rs 12.6 billion mainly because of less revenue collection by the CBR.
Much of the nation building task is done by the provinces. It is a fact that hardly any one can contest. The entire social and physical infra structure, on which the national economy is build up, is done by the provinces. In final analysis, it is the doing and the undoing of provinces that matters in shaping of the national economy.
One wonders, why then the SBP annual reports and yearly economic surveys are mysteriously quiet on the economic activities in the provinces. The question is what hinders the government agencies from monitoring the macro and micro economic indicators at the provincial levels. Why is the gross domestic production (GDP) not disclosed at the provincial level?
With district governments set in place, the economists in service of the government would now be required to prepare and constantly update the economic profiles of their respective districts. So why the planners and economic managers are shy of portraying correct economic indicators of the provinces.
Different explanations are offered. A well known economist who runs a big private research establishment in Karachi and he himself has been associated with more than one federal government set-ups in previous years, disclosed once that it was late General Ziaul Haq who instructed to avoid any studies and economic calculations at provincial levels.
“Projecting economic performance of provinces reminded the late military dictator of pre 1971 East Pakistan” he said.In 1980s, the economists in employment of the government, were instructed to focus on national economy only. “There were clear instructions not to publish anything that should convey economic deprivation of any province”.
“Balochistan and not Balochs are my concern”, late General Ziaul Haq is quoted by many Balochistan officials and politicians. “His only interest was strategic location and vast mineral resources in Balochistan” a teacher in Balochistan University said who added that GDP, economic indicators and real hard development was never the concern of late military dictator.
“It should hardly be 10 to 11 per cent of our national GDP” a senior bureaucrat in the Balochistan government informed this correspondent last week. The bureaucrat was asked the same question “do you calculate GDP at Balochistan level?” “How can we?” he expressed his helplessness. He explained that it is all distorted.
“Look, for almost half a century now, Balochistan has been the main supplier of natural gas in the country” he said while pointing out the value addition it has brought about in the economies of Sindh and Punjab. Besides domestic consumption, Sui gas has been the main ingredient to generate electric power, fertiliser, cement and many other industries. Balochistan gets hardly two per cent of the gas that is being consumed in other parts of the country. Those who receive this gas in Quetta are mostly the settlers. The local people get hardly any gas supply.
In short, the benefits of this natural gas in Balochistan are reflected in the economies of other provinces. So the rough assessment of gross domestic product of Balochistan is hardly Rs 350 to Rs 400 billion.
Of course this does not include the savings in fuel and value addition brought about by the natural gas produced from Sui, Pir Koh and a few other parts of Balochistan.
But the story does not end here. Fish export earns about $137-138 million in a year. Much of this fish comes from Balochistan but is exported through Karachi port. Similarly, Balochistan produces a few variety of fruits that fetch handsome export earnings. But then this earning too is credited to Sindh.
Dates production in Mekran is another Balochistan’s strong point. For last few years, the date growers have been able to fetch good price. A few of the enterprising growers have set up date processing plants which is reported to be working properly and giving handsome returns to the entrepreneurs.
A tiny middle class is emerging in Mekran division which is vocal, assertive and independent of government control. “There is hardly any production base in Balochitan” a trader from Turbat frankly conceded in an informal conversation.
Balochistan’s economic affairs are now being discussed informally in small gatherings of traders, bureaucrats, academics medical practitioners and political activists.
In these small study groups, the participants calculate how much resources have been provided for “more then three million employees of the federal government”. ‘Balochistan should be contributing Rs 20 to Rs 25 billion towards the wages of federal government employees where Balochistan’s representation is not even two per cent” a young engineering student estimated. “It is as much as the size of Balochistan’s own budget” another participant informed.
Many of these “informal” economists are convinced that in last 31 years, since the provinces re-emerged on Pakistan’s map in 1970, more than Rs 10 trillion (Rs 10,000 billion) resources have been transferred from South to North within the country.
But Balochistan also received its share of prosperity from drug trafficking, gun running and a thriving market for the stolen and snatched motor cycles and motor cars from Karachi during the decade of eighties and nineties. The Afghan war in eighties opened all avenues of drug trafficking and gun running. Thanks to the patronage from proper quarters, Balochistan also emerged as the main dumping place for stolen and snatched motor cars and motor cycles in Karachi. Wesh, at the edge of Afghan border has been since long a market of reconditioned automobiles being imported by Afghan businessmen through Iran.
Deposit base of Chaman banks is said to be the highest in Balochistan where according to a bank officer “people bring money literally in bags and sacks to deposit”.
Quetta, Chaman and many other towns in Balochistan saw hectic construction activities in 1980s. Quite a big number of buildings and hotels were constructed in Quetta during the decade of eighties. In Quetta, Chaman and a few other cities people live in unbelievably sprawling huge mansions spread over two acres. These are complexes of housing units. Houses for the guests, family quarters, family garden with own power generators and tube wells.
A war is raging again in Afghanistan. Balochistan has become a spring board for launching air raids and may be used for deployment of ground troops. But there seems to be a pall of gloom hanging over Quetta. Bazars with shops full of merchandise are there but not so crowded as they used to be. Real estate value is coming down. One notable indicator is the decline in number of PIA passengers. Much before September 11 and October 7, PIA had started cancelling Quetta flights from Karachi or Islamabad because it is not getting enough passengers.































