Reports from most cotton fields of Punjab and Sindh, where the first picking of cotton is in progress, are not merely good but indeed positive, suggesting that the target fixed for the crop by the government would be met and in all likelihood, exceeded.

This would mean a break for the better, providing no sudden negative factor visits the fields.

The federal government has guided and keenly followed the crop's development in all its phases and provincial administrations have, for once, delivered their share though one should really be grateful to nature that provided conditions conducive for the production of a good crop that may become a bumper one.

The target of 10.7 million bales wasn't high, particularly in view of increased acreage for cultivation of cotton across the country. Punjab has the largest area under cotton. This has been increased by a little over ten percent while Sindh sowed cotton on land covering just a little under ten percent above last year's acreage.

The success of the campaign to bring more land under cotton should be gauged from its impact on North Western Frontier Province, which is not known for growing cotton on a large scale. The province registered a 71 per cent increase in its cotton crop area.

The contribution of the province may still not amount to much because restricted sowing was carried out in the province in the past but the development is an indication of the government's efforts and the response of farmers. It wasn't a rosy picture all the way as reports of pest attacks and more disturbingly, of Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV) revisiting the crop had created a scare at one stage.

Army and American bollworm also hit the fields but pest infestation did not prove damaging in the end as the needed measures were adopted without delay to counter pests and due to timely availability of sprays to farmers.

Early attention to pest control helped the growth of the crop, informing that the concerned government were seriously concerned this time and were genuinely assisting farmers in producing a crop that may turn out to be higher than the target fixed by the government.

A major reason for the expected high crop is cultivation in non-core areas of Punjab. Cotton was previously cultivated in some districts of the province but once the crop was damaged by CLCV, they shifted to other crops. That process has been reversed this year. The Punjab government tried for the revival of cotton in these areas last year but met only marginal success. However, continuation of the effort for 2004-05 has been quite rewarding. Increase in cotton acreage in the province would be a result of this policy.

The government's interest in the cotton crop that makes a significant contribution to the national economy in terms of exports, supplies raw material to the textile sector, provides work opportunities to non-farmer rural population besides being one of the main cash crops for a large percentage of the farming community was evident from the personal interest the Prime Minister took in it.

He was involved in the periodical review of the crop and closely followed its development. His instructions for ensuring a fair price for farmers and for the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) to remain active throughout the season may be the reason why TCP is considered to be performing better than previous years.

That also underlined the unfortunate fact that in recent past, administrations were not playing their due role, causing loss of produce. In a country like Pakistan where the government controls, or tries to control every aspect of life, support from authorities is essential at every step. Its availability this time has been an important factor for a good produce.

As for farmers, they invest every resource they possess in the fields and as cotton is a high value crop, they treat it with utmost care and are never hesitant in putting in every penny of their money and all their sweat and toil in it. In the past, they were often deprived of their rightful gains.

Hopefully, the exploitation that often marks and mars the interests of growers would not be allowed to skin them off this time. Intervention from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has been another positive development. The organization was introduced to the cotton sector after the disbandment of the Cotton Export Corporation (CEC), a terribly unwise and shortsighted decision.

The TCP could, however, not make an effective contribution towards safeguarding the farmer's interests and seemed all at sea while handling the sector. It has apparently gained the needed experience by trial and error method and it seems that the trained staff of the CEC that was fortunately available to the TCP and incorporated in the organization, is also being utilized properly.

Its work has been helped by the enhancement of support price of phutti from Rs. 850 per 40 kg to Rs. 925 for the same quantity.

The raise seems to have proved an incentive for farmers to produce more. However, the farmers have always done their best and their contribution should be assessed from the per acre yield of cotton. The average per acre yield of about 19.5 maunds per acre matches international standards and is a testimony to the farmer's ability to obtain the best from the land.

Supply of quality-graded seed, availability of inputs on time and of course at a reasonable cost plus assurance of a market that treats growers equitably is likely to add to the output. Hopefully, the facilities and supports to the growers' need would be made more reliable in future.

With regard to marketing of the crop,the TCP's intervention is providing good results but it would do better by acting as intermediary between ginners and growers and try to work out a system that eliminates, at least reduces the exploitative role of the middle man who thrives on the misery of producers.

It is easier said than done but now that the TCP has become a component of the cotton sector, it is desirable that the organization should extend its involvement for the benefit of the producer. Protecting the farmer's interests would go a long way towards boosting the produce. Its support to ginners should be linked with the fair deal from ginners for farmers.

While speculative assessment of the crop has a generally negative effect on the farmer's and provides an edge to exploitative elements to manipulate price and deprive growers of their fair share, this is an area where the TCP can counter negative conditions. Assurance of fair treatment would boost the grower's confidence and enhance their productivity.

Nevertheless, speculations are that the crop could be up to 13 million bales and surpass all previous yields can hardly be called beneficial for the sector. A shortfall from unrealistically high expectations can prove a dampener. Such assessments should better be avoided. One hopes that the promise of a high crop is fulfilled.

The managers of the agriculture sector would do well to analyze the experience and utilize it in future instead of loosing the advantage the way everything was left to fate after a bumper wheat crop. While no one can predict weather conditions, other components of success can be listed and harnessed for providing the right support base for the crop.