The prolonged drought has seriously aggravated the already worst water crisis in the short history of Pakistan. During the last 3-4 years, the water shortages in the Indus Basin during the rabi season has been exceeding 40-50 percent.

Even during the kharif season, water surplus season, a shortfall of the order of 20 to 30 percent has been experienced. I myself had predicted earlier that the water crisis will get worse if no remedial measures were taken without further delay.

One of the several mitigation measures suggested were construction of several storage dams on Indus river system. Unfortunately no progress has been made on this front. Rather the debate between two groups, which is going on for more than 25 years “whether to build or not to build more storage dams”, has further intensified against building new reservoirs. According to one group on the average some 35-40 MAF water in the Indus river system goes to sea unused every year. This group claims that during the last 25 years (post Tarbela) some 875 to 1000 MAF water had escaped to sea. Valued at Rs 3000 per acre foot, the nation has suffered a loss of three trillion rupees during this period. The group is of the view that had timely appropriate remedial measures been undertaken to store even a part of this water, it could have helped to alleviate present water crisis, boost agriculture production and improve water supply for industrial, domestic and other uses.

The second group is of the strong view that there is no surplus water available for storage. This group claims that during the last 2-3 years (drought years) hardly any surplus water had flown to sea. The two groups are talking of two different conditions. One group talks of flow available during average and wet year(s) while the other group talks of flow available during drought year(s) only. The second group also claims that some water should also flow downstream Kotri to check sea water intrusion and to protect natural environment in the area below Kotri barrage. Both groups are sticking to their positions and the impasse continues.

Though the claims of both the groups appear justified but only under specific conditions of normal/wet year(s) and drought year(s). If we assume that the drought cycle will continue indefinitely from now onward, the agriculture in the Indus Basin will be doomed and so will be people of Pakistan. Ethiopia like situation will develop. The country will lose its self-respect and independence and will be left at the mercy of foreign donors for meeting food and fibre requirements of her people. However, if we believe that the present dry cycle will end and that it will be followed by normal and wet years as before, then on the average 35-40 MAF surplus water will be available for storage annually. After ensuring minimum agreed releases below Kotri to mitigate sea intrusion and to sustain natural environment, the rest of the surplus water should be stored in several storage dams for which sites are available at Kalabagh, Dhok Pathan, Sanjwal-Akhori, Skardu, Bhasha, etc.

To meet future water requirements we must build several storage reservoirs to store at least 25-30 MAF water annually. The storage capacity of these reservoirs should be such that maximum surplus river flows can be stored even during wet year(s) which will definitely follow, may be sooner than later. We should be ready to store all surplus flow available during normal and wet year(s) to meet water requirements during subsequent low rainfall year(s). A study carried out by the Pakistan Water Partnership (2000) recommended immediate construction of two large storage reservoirs to store 12 MAF water.

The past experience shows that all the provinces will benefit from the creation of additional storages. It is worth noting that water availability in the province of NWFP, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan increased respectively by 66, 19, 29 and 0 per cent after the Mangla dam construction and by 20, 8, 13 and 0 per cent after the commissioning of the Tarbela dam. The overall water supply in the provinces of Punjab, Sindh and NWFP increased by 28, 45 and 50 per cent respectively after the commissioning of the Tarbela dam. It is evident that the provinces of Sindh and NWFP benefited for more than the province of Punjab. The same can be expected for future. The lack of consensus over building of more reservoirs is not due to technical reason but mainly because of political rivalry, misconceptions and lack of confidence between the provinces. The lower riparians appear to have developed serious apprehensions about rightful distribution of water as per agreed formula.

They are of the strong views that upper riparian will take undue advantage of building storage reservoirs in the upper reaches of Indus river and devoid them of their rightful share of water. To create consensus on construction of more reservoirs, this misconception should be removed and confidence building measures undertaken on priority basis. The feeling of being a “Pakistani first” must prevail upon the feeling of being a Punjabi, Sindhi, Balochi or Pathan.

For this purpose, there needs to be a strong will and commitment from the provincial and federal governments. The federal government, provincial governments, the water stakeholders and the electronic media must rise above petty differences and apprehensions and assist in the creation of national consensus on this vital national issue failing which every one will be the looser. There is thus a dire need to strengthen national cohesion and integration.

Water Management: It appears that water shortage will continue in future if necessary remedial measures are not taken on priority basis. There are four important factors that needs to be considered for the mitigation of existing and future water shortages. These are (i) water resources development, (ii) water resources conservation, (iii) water demand management and (iv) satisfactory water distribution among the provinces. As far as water resources development is concerned, there is a need to increase water availability to meet future water shortfall. The gap between water demand and availability will further widen due to increase in population which is anticipated to increase from 140 million in the year 2000 to 170 million in the year 2010 to 221 million in the year 2025.

According to the latest estimate, the annual irrigation requirements at farm gate will increase from 100 MAF in the year 2000 to 143 MAF in the year 2025. At existing irrigation efficiency of 40 percent, the gross irrigation requirements will increase from 250 MAF in 2000 to 358 MAF in 2025, an increase of 108 MAF. In addition, it is estimated that 16 MAF water will also be required for domestic, industrial and other uses in 2025. Therefore, total additional water requirement in 2025 will be of the order of 124 MAF. The previous estimates indicates annual water shortfall of 100 - 150 MAF in 2025. The total annual sustainable water resources development potential available is 66 MAF (32 MAF from river flows, 18 MAF from ground water and the remaining 16 MAF from rainfall harvesting). Therefore, 48 MAF annual sustainable development potential is available for exploitation through building storage dams and 18 MAF through exploitation of groundwater.

As for water conservation is concerned, there is a strong need to conserve water. The existing irrigation efficiency is only about 30 - 40 percent which can be improved to 50 to 60 percent by improving existing traditional irrigation methods and lining of irrigation system and up to 70-80 percent by introducing pressure irrigation methods such as sprinkler, drip, bubbler, etc. There is a potential to conserve 30-50 MAF annually through adopting water conservation measures, such as improving water conveyance and application efficiencies. This will assist in narrowing the gap between future water availability and demand.

The third important factor is demand management. The future water requirements can be cut down through efficient demand management. The most important step in the demand management is the population control. The present annual population growth rate of nearly 3 percent is among the highest in the world. This needs to be brought down to less than 2 percent, by adopting appropriate population control measures. Unless this is done, no matter whatever we plan and implement, it will be very difficult to match increase in water availability to meet food and fibre requirements of the exploding population.

The second important step in demand management is the readjustment of existing cropping patterns. For this purpose, it will be necessary to develop crop zoning i.e. to grow crops suitable for different soil, water and climate conditions. The area under high delta crops such as rice, sugar-cane, etc, will need to be cut down or these crops should preferably be grown in high rainfall area of the country to reduce water-requirements.

The forth and the most important factor is satisfactory water distribution among provinces as per agreed formula. This is the key factor. Here the federal and provincial governments and politicians should create consensus on an agreed water distribution formula without which it may not be possible to construct any future water resources development project.

It is pity that we have not been able to develop an agreed and acceptable water distribution formula during the last 54 years. Although Water Accords of 1991 and water sharing formula of 1994 exists yet differences have surfaced among the provinces on these. There is thus a dire need to have an agreed water sharing formula acceptable to all the four provinces, Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas. Once this is agreed, then water distribution among the provinces should be carried out strictly in letter and in spirit according to the agreed formula. The lower riparians must be ensured of their rightful agreed share of water through a constitutional provision.

Wapda Vision 2025 identified several water resources development projects in phase-I. These are Bhasha dam, Thal Reservoir, Greater Thal Canal, Chashma Right Bank Canal (lift irrigation), Sehwan Barrage, Rainy and Thar Canal, Gomal Zam Dam, Mirani Dam, Kachhi Canal and Satpara Dam. Some of these projects have been dropped while serious differences have appeared among provinces even on the implementation of these projects.

Unless misconceptions/apprehensions between the provinces are removed, confidence restored and consensus created, it will not be possible to undertake future water resources development projects so vital for the prosperity and well-being of the people of Pakistan. The time is running out. Quick actions are need of the hour.

The writer is former FAO/UNO irrigation practices expert/agriculture scientist, Wapda.