LAHORE, March 22: The prolonged spell of rains across Punjab and NWFP, high velocity winds and hailstorms at some points in Punjab last week have placed a question mark about the two provinces meeting their wheat production targets. Punjab was assigned the target of 16.1 million tons while the share of NWFP was placed at 1.1 m tons. The provinces were expected to realize the targets because of higher acreage under the crop this year. So far conditions were favourable for the crop, as water shortage problem was overcome by timely rains that saved farmers from at least one watering of the crop. But recent rains have given the script a negative turn, as the standing crop has been hit in many fields in the two provinces and devastated them in some areas of Punjab.

Farmers and sector experts have varying estimates about the extent of damage but there is a general agreement that about 10 per cent of the crop may have been hit. This could translate into about one million tons of wheat, if not more.

The situation offers an ironic conclusion because the latest spell of rains is certain to benefit delayed cultivation while the emphasis is always on early sowing to ensure maximum yields from the fields. This would have a bearing on the crop where wheat bas replaced cotton or cane, particularly the former.

The phenomenon is more like to manifest itself in the cotton belt where the picking of an exceptionally rich crop was delayed for third and fourth pickings. As a result, many farmers cultivated wheat much after the correct time in their cotton land.

It is, however, difficult to estimate the effect of rains because no statistics for early and delayed sowing are available. In other areas too, the position differs from district to district and even field to field because inundated fields are likely to have been hit hard. The Punjab government appears to be both aware and concerned with weather caused developments. Agriculture Minister Arshad Lodhi and agriculture department officials have been touring the affected areas to assess the impact of rains on the standing crop. A high-level damage assessment meeting is scheduled for Thursday (March 24).

Farmer’s Association of Pakistan secretary Mohammad Idris feels that while the situation would differ from area to area, a 5-10 per cent loss in the crop size is not to be ruled out. Rain-fed or ‘barani’ areas would be largely unaffected by the rains because of the uneven lay of the land that makes for quick drainage, but the rains would be a set back for low lying areas where water may stay for a while, he said.

As for hailstorms, he called them disastrous for the crop, besides physically hitting the crop. They have a freezing affect on it and hamper their meta-biological activity. He hoped for sunshine replacing the cloudy atmosphere so that the process of evaporation of surface water is speeded up.

Kisan Board secretary-general Ibrahim Moghul painted a grimmer picture, putting the loss from damage to the wheat crop at about Rs15 million in terms of financial impact and about one million tons reduction in the overall yield in Punjab.

He said that affected farmers would be terribly hit because their investment in treated seed, fertilizer, expensive diesel and electricity bills, if underground water was applied to the crop through tube wells, would go down the drain. Not just that, but it will also have a domino affect on the next season because the farmers will not be in a position to invest in the next crop.

According to weather reports, the worst hit areas are Fort Abbass, DG Khan, Jhang, Vehari, Liah, Pakpattan, Khushab, Chistian, Kasur and parts of Faisalabad division. Reports suggest that many fields in these areas have been laid waste by winds and hailstorm.

Most agriculturists of Punjab were keeping their fingers crossed but hardly any one believed that the crop, which had been shaping wonderfully well till the latest spell of rains, would survive unscathed. However, assessment of damage varied from person to person.

Farhatullah Khan, a progressive farmer of Mian Channu area, said that there was bound to be negative effect of the long spell of rains, strong winds and hailstorm, though the extent of loss could not be estimated at this point in time. But, he added, positive fallout of the weather was protecting wheat from rust and aphid.

Ms Azra Shaikh, who has lands in Bahawalpur, sounded a cheerful note, saying that there hadn’t been rain or winds in the region and the crop was growing well. She also observed that late sown fields would benefit from the weather but early cultivation would be adversely affected.

The former head of the Punjab agriculture department’s information wing, Nawaz Bhatti, viewed the situation as harmful for wheat but rewarding for some other crops. As for wheat, he said it would have negative effect on grain formation and shrivel the grain. But he felt that sunshine for a few days would help the affected crop to recoup. However, he warned that it would be difficult for the crop to recover from another spell of rain.

Head of the public relations of Punjab Seed Corporation, Nazakat Bhatti, said that he had toured many of the rain-hit areas where consistently falling rain had floored the plantation in many fields but it was not a totally lost cause because warmer weather and sunshine can restrict damage.