WASHINGTON: Arab and European officials are increasingly concerned that the Bush administration's push to promote democracy in the Middle East will have little traction in the region because the administration appears at the same time to be stepping away from sustained involvement in the Israeli- Palestinian conflict.

The risk for the administration, diplomats and experts said, is that the impression of US disengagement could undercut the rationale for the administration's new initiative, further devaluing the notion of democracy in that region and emboldening Muslims who reject Western influences.

"The good news is that we always welcome any effort to promote good governance, democracy, accountability and prosperity," said Rami Khouri, editor of Beirut's Daily Star newspaper and an Arab intellectual.

"The bad news is that the US has a pretty mediocre track record of following through on grandiose initiatives. Bush said he was committed to Mideast peace and he offered a grandiose initiative, but then he seems to have backed off. So there is scepticism in the Mideast about the US track record."

This widely held perception about the administration's record in the Middle East has already begun to undermine support for what administration officials call the "Greater Middle East Initiative".

The plan, the subject of extensive conversations with European officials, has been greeted as a worthwhile endeavour by many foreign officials - but only if it is accompanied by sustained interest in resolving the Israeli- Palestinian conflict.

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin summarized this concern in an interview with Le Figaro last week: "If we want to be credible, we can't ignore the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Re-creating a dynamic for peace is an indispensable condition for any initiative in the region."

The administration plans to present the plan at the Group of Eight summit in June. It is aimed at the arc of countries extending from Morocco to Pakistan, and would urge them to adopt major political reforms, be held accountable on human rights - particularly women's empowerment - and to introduce economic reforms.

As incentives for targeted countries to cooperate, Western nations would offer to expand political engagement, increase aid, facilitate membership in the World Trade Organization and foster security arrangements.

Many Arabs - some of whom view the United States as a solid backer of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and an illegitimate occupier of Iraq - consider the Bush administration a suspect messenger for such an initiative.

Moreover, this latest plan is increasingly viewed by Arab and European officials as part of a series of initiatives launched by the administration with much fanfare - and little follow-through.

Last June, for instance, President Bush presided over the launch of the road map plan for peace in the Middle East during a summit at Aqaba, Jordan. But the effort is considered a failure - in part, Arab and European officials believe, because the administration did not devote enough attention to it.

A year earlier, also in June, Bush outlined a new vision for Middle East peace. But again, the officials believe, the administration did not take action to implement that vision until months after the speech.

Now, Bush administration officials say they are increasingly inclined to back Sharon's plan to unilaterally "disengage" from the Palestinians, and some Arab and European officials suspect the administration is preparing to use the democracy initiative as a cover for its failure to make progress on the Israeli- Palestinian conflict.

But they say the Arab-Israeli conflict is a precursor for advancing democracy in the region, because the conflict has long been used as an excuse by autocratic governments to avoid taking steps toward democracy.

Jordan's King Abdullah, speaking at a conference in Munich this month, described the Arab-Israeli conflict as "the core challenge" as the Arab world works to achieve "genuine development and reform".

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, addressing the same conference, noted: "The key regional conflict, namely the Middle East conflict, should neither be set aside nor allowed to block this initiative from the outset."

Nader Fergani, an Egyptian social scientist who was lead writer of UN reports on Arab development cited by the administration as the basis of the initiative, said in an article published on Thursday that "any honest reading of the report(s) would show that it ... said that the Israeli occupation is the greatest obstacle to human development in Arab countries."

In the article, published in the London-based Arabic language al- Hayat, Fergani said the administration's initiative relied on the UN reports "like a drunkard leaning on a lamppost, to save himself from falling, and not for enlightenment."-Dawn/The LAT-WP News Service (c) The Washington Post.