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LONDON: Former "rogue" state Libya seems to be rushing in from the cold, but some pitfalls remain before it can fully regain its place in the international community.
In Europe, it still has disputes with Germany, Britain and Bulgaria, and must overcome longstanding US hostility before it can win the ultimate prize of an end to US sanctions. Two deadlines may be significant in accelerating a thaw in once-frozen ties with Washington.
Under last year's compensation deal for the 1988 Lockerbie airliner bombing, Libya could halve the $10 million it promised each victim's family unless the United States lifts sanctions and drops Tripoli from its list of terrorism sponsors by May.
"I don't think Washington will want to be seen to be tied to that deadline, but it's possible that Libya will 'forget' to implement it and the United States will lift sanctions soon afterwards," North Africa analyst George Joffe said.
Otherwise, pressure could mount from US oil companies whose concessions in Libya have languished in a trust since the early 1980s. The trust expires in 2005. Thereafter the concessions could be offered to other firms to take up.
"The oil companies are keen for the US government to move quickly. The Libyans want the concessions to go back to US companies. So there is a momentum," said Philip McCrum, Libya editor at London's Economist Intelligence Unit. Among the US oil companies that were forced out of Libya by the US sanctions are ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil and Amerada Hess Corporation.
LONG ROAD TRODDEN: Libya has clearly come far in its long quest to throw off its pariah status and return to international respectability. On Tuesday the United States confirmed it had re-established a diplomatic presence in Tripoli, mainly to assist US weapons experts helping Libya dismantle its banned armaments programmes, and said Libyan diplomats would set up in Washington soon.
The same day Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi became the first Western leader to meet Qadhafi since the Libyan leader's pledge in December to scrap those arms projects.
And Libya's foreign minister saw Tony Blair during a landmark trip to London, winning a promise that the British prime minister would meet Qadhafi at a date to be arranged.
Britain is far ahead of its US ally in repairing ties with Libya in return for Tripoli's cooperation over Lockerbie and stunning decision to renounce weapons of mass destruction.
Qadhafi's terrorist bogeyman image, nurtured most vividly by former President Ronald Reagan, lingers in US public opinion and President George W. Bush may shy away from rehabilitating Libya in the run-up to the November presidential election.
Nevertheless, Joffe, at Cambridge University's Centre of International Studies, said Congress had grown less hostile to Libya since US lawmakers visited Tripoli last month.
"It's the cover that Bush needs," he said. A US diplomat said the rapprochement was a reciprocal process: "We take a step when they take a step." British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, speaking alongside his Libyan counterpart Mohamed Abderrhmane Chalgam on Tuesday, noted the virtues of diplomacy in dealing with states such as Libya and Iran, once perceived as outlaws like Saddam Hussein's Iraq.
Libya's weapons decision showed that proliferation problems can "with goodwill, be tackled through discussion and engagement", Straw said, adding that Britain looked forward to an early end to the European Union's arms embargo on Libya.
SOME WAY TO GO: Germany has resisted any move to lift or waive the embargo, which it sees as its main lever in its dispute with Libya over the 1986 bombing of a West Berlin club used by US soldiers.
The German government has kept quiet on any talks seeking Libyan compensation for the attack, which killed two US soldiers and a Turkish woman and wounded more than 200 people.
Even Britain has unfinished business with Libya. Human rights concerns may still impede better ties with the West, even though Libya has met major demands by renouncing banned arms, settling disputes over Lockerbie and the French UTA airliner bombing and cooperating in the fight against terrorism. -Reuters
