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After inheriting a fragmented system of statistical hierarchy, Pakistan embarked upon consolidating its statistics since its very inception in the year 1947.
In 1949, the State Bank of Pakistan established its department of statistics to consolidate financial statistics.
In the same year, the population census organization was established to conduct the first census of population in 1951.
In 1950, a central statistical office (CSO) was created under the ministry of economic affairs for compiling trade data and the first trade data was brought out in 1952. In 1959, the agricultural census organisation (ACO) was created to conduct agricultural census.
By 1960, a modest statistical scenario was available. Thereafter various organizational changes and re-organization of statistics departments were undertaken. The creation of four provinces in 1972 saw establishment of four provincial bureaus (one each for Punjab, Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan).
With the growing need of qualified statisticians, many universities started teaching the discipline in the decade of 60's. Earlier only two universities had independent statistics department, one at the Punjab University and the other at the Dhaka University In Bangladesh).
At the moment, 15 universities offer graduate and postgraduate degrees in statistics. Few of the universities have embarked upon M. Phil and Ph. D. degrees in the subject.
The curriculum of bachelors and masters level have been revised under the aegis of UGC (HEC) to be followed by all universities. However, the curriculum fails to address the applied side of statistics. What is happening in the collection, analysis, and dissemination of statistics is not known to our graduates, what to speak of its usage in every day life.
Statistics is a subject which has a direct bearing on life of every individual, organisation and government. May it be a question of information, or a base line data for decision-making or planning, statistics play a vital role.
Realizing the need of statistics and its standards, the international fraternity played a major part in propagation and formulation of policies and strategies. Apart from concerted research, various bodies were created to foster awareness of statistics. The recent development in communication and transfer of information made people aware of happenings in every corner of the world. A sense of comparison and deprivation' also crept in the minds of people. The sole criteria of comparison- be it cross-sectional or longitudinal, is quantity-based - the indicators generated through statistics. The good governance has also been directly linked with statistics.
However Pakistan's statistics is not well received at international forums, nor the national keepers have a faith in our statistics. Users too do not believe in the results given by our official statistics producers. I would like to cite a few examples in this regard. According to officially calculated CPI, the inflation rate is around 4 per cent whereas one knows that inflation rate is at around 20 per cent.
Similarly, in Pakistan expectation of life is around 62 years at the moment; whereas infant mortality is high at around 79.8 per 1000 live births. However, these indicators neither match themselves nor match cross-sectionally.
An inside study reveals that the real problem lies with the data collection. The people at large are almost unaware of the importance of data collection. No body gives importance to an investigator who visits a home to obtain such basic data from people. Hence a very well-known saying goes in Pakistan: 'garbage in, garbage out'. Dismal level of education and literacy adds fuel to misleading data generation.
It is, therefore, necessary to work hard in the direction of creating awareness among people. They must be taken in confidence and told about advantages of statistics.
Why statistics are crucial? Every country needs dependable statistics as they are considered essential to paint an objective picture of the country and the economic and social conditions of its people. Statistics help comparisons with the past and set a benchmark for future and they are the key to effective policy-making.
Dependable statistics ensure a country its to make a best case for itself on the international stage. Such statistics are also crucial for firms considering investment in a country and for international bodies while taking decisions on development programmes.
Economic policy relies on official statistics. Government needs statistics to 'balance its books' and to ensure it raises enough money from taxes to generate funds for its future plans. Official statistics are also essential while tackling health and education programmes keeping in view the scarce resources.
It is the government's duty to provide statistics to all those who need them- be they businessmen or individuals, even if such statistics put it in an unfavourable light. Businesses make vital decisions on levels of investment and employment on the evidence of economic data.
Individual citizens can benefit from statistics in making important decisions about their lives - where to live and work, the best schools for their children, how to manage their money etc. Few would dispute that a healthy business sector is a major source of strength and that an informed citizen is a better citizen.
Relationships: The successful collection of official statistics is often described as a 'circular process', in which government, those who supply data to government (respondents), those who use or benefit from the statistics (enterprises and citizens), and the media are all interlinked and interdependent.
The official statistics depend on the goodwill of respondents for an adequate and efficient supply of data. One way in which such goodwill can be fostered is by making available in a user-friendly way to respondents, as well as the public in general.
It is often argued that statistics are a 'public good', because they are collected on behalf of the public and at its expense. But the argument goes beyond that. Official statistics are such a vital indicator of the state of the nation that he who 'owns' them has a 'power'. Ease of access to official statistics is a hallmark of the democratic process; conversely, tight government control of such data is characteristic of the authoritarian states.
To complete the circle, it follows that the news media play a critical role in the process. They are a key channel through which government informs the public on important matters and they act as a 'watchdog' in case of any attempt is made to manipulate statistics. The best national statistical offices put a high priority on their relationship with the media.
Ethos: Official statisticians should be as independent from government as judges are in most constitutional systems. Some European countries are even discussing a change in their constitution to recognize statistical independence.
"Statistical integrity and public confidence in integrity are both vital", said Professor Tim Holt, a former director of the UK office for national statistics (ONS).
Quality statistics: In producing good quality official statistics, it is essential for them to be useful and credible. Quality can be defined in many respects:
* the extent to which the data reflect the underlying situation of the subject under examination. A census that does not measure accurately the very poorest sections of society cannot reflect a country's true demographic and social condition.
Release: Dissemination of data several years after their collection might have been acceptable when they were used only for academic research. But thanks to new technology, it is necessary for data to be released as soon as possible after collection, subject, of course, to their later revision.
Relevancy: A survey that attempted to depict the health of a nation only on the basis of the incidence of certain diseases, while ignoring others, would provide a biased picture.* Territorial and sectoral desegregation that allows the true nature of various phenomena to be revealed,
(In all sample surveys, desegregated results must be based on larger sample, in order to reduce the probability of errors. It is essential to have the right mix between the benefits of desegregation and its increased cost.)
* Data must be comparable internationally, and must reflect, as far as possible, the same homogeneous and transparent methodologies as other countries.
In the past, some countries used definitions that differed from international norms in various fields - for example child mortality. This enabled them to obtain in principle much better - even if essentially false - results.
A survey's success depends on respondents' cooperation. Firms, institutions and individuals are the source of the basic data that become official statistics. Respondents' disinterest in the process or distrust of the organisation undertaking a survey might negate its value and possibly even result in the failure of a census, with the consequent waste of valuable resources.
Statisticians should create a sort of 'gentleman's agreement' with respondents. Both parties must know they stand to gain from each other. It is essential to publicise the role of official statistics and how they are used. Confidentiality - the guarantee that data will be used solely for statistical purposes - should be publicized widely and adhered to scrupulously.
The best way to ensure people understand the value of statistics is to persuade them to use them. Statistics begin to assume importance in peoples' perceptions when they use them to make decisions - in official as well private spheres. Published statistics, especially if intended for general rather then expert consumption, should be 'user-friendly', with text, tables and graphics readily understood.
Those who produce official statistics should know' their 'audiences' - the actual and potential users of the data - and should formulate the most appropriate strategies to target them effectively.
