THE government has set a wheat sowing target of 2.2 million acres. Will the government have enough to offer the farmers to realise the target? The precarious state of supply of inputs and water is enough to explain the apprehensions about meeting the acreage target. Wheat sowing will start within next couple of weeks, but the projected water shortage definitely would cause problems for the farmers.

Wheat crop requires at least four watering at different stages of its growth. In terms of delta of water, wheat crop needs 26 to 28 acre inches. Given this depth of water, around 50 million acre feet of water would be required for successful growing of wheat crop over 2.2 million acres. But the river system provides around 30 million acre feet, if there is no shortage. With 35 to 40 per cent projected shortage, the system supply would drop to 18 million acres.

To add to this, tube-wells pumped out around 40 million acre feet yearly-20 million acre feet in Kharif and roughly the same quantity in Rabi. Even if a 20-million acre foot is added to 18 million acre feet from rivers and dams, there would be still shortage of 1.2 million acre feet.

How much acreage would be affected by this 24 per cent water shortage is a question difficult to answer at this point in time. But the thing that needs illustration here is that this 24 per cent shortage would surely be a make or break factor for the crop. The shortage of 1.2 million acre feet, therefore, poses a big challenge to the target.

The precarious fertiliser availability situation even offers more insight about the fears of potential failure to achieve acreage. Urea is abundantly used at the time of sowing. The country would need 2.5 million tons of urea during the coming season but it would not have more than one million tons. There would be a deficit of 1.5 million tons or 60 per cent of the fertiliser. The requirement of phosphate fertiliser for Rabi season is around 1.1 million tons and the current availability is only 400,000 tons. Again there would be a deficit of 60 per cent. Even recent import of 55,000 tons of urea would hardly cover 500,000 acres.

Besides these two critical factors, the federal government has yet to announce wheat support price which is essential to persuade the farmers to cultivate wheat on increased acreage. Even there is no debate about fixing support price. The federal government needs to collect views on wheat support price for the forthcoming season. It is pertinent to mention that announcing support price of wheat before the start of sowing season will not only affect acreage but also per care yield. For instance, when the government increased support price of wheat from Rs300 to Rs350 during 2003-04, area under wheat crop increased from 8,034,000 hectares in 2002-03 to 8,216,000 hectares in 2003-04.

Wheat production could be enhanced either by increasing acreage or yield on unit area basis. About 5-10 per cent additional land can be brought under wheat cultivation if sugar millers start crushing on time in October. The ideal time for wheat cultivation starts in early November. The additional land from sugarcane crop will help the government achieve the wheat sowing target because the farmers may go for wheat instead of sugarcane on a large-scale provided reasonable support price for wheat has been announced. On the other, sugar millers have always tried their best to get wheat support price delayed to discourage the growers to go far wheat sowing.

Wheat support price needs to be set keeping in view the prices of other crops like maize. It is because maize crop competes with wheat crop for acreage. In case the wheat support price is kept considerably below than that of maize crop, country might not be able to achieve the target of 2.2 million acres. Returns on maize crop needs to be compared with the returns on wheat crop. Certainly, maize is a four-month crop whereas wheat is six-month, with better support price maize would offer higher returns compared to wheat crop. In short, keeping wheat price lower compared to maize will reduce area under wheat.

To realise the wheat sowing target, there is need to adopt short-term multi-pronged strategy. Water saving measures should be adopted to avert the adverse effects of water shortage on wheat crop. In the backdrop of anticipated water shortage, wheat production target is bound to suffer and farmers’ income will also face a set back.

It is encouraging that the Punjab government has launched a scheme for providing tractors to the farmers at subsidised rates. This is a right step to encourage mechanised farming. If availability of tractors is ensured uniformly and before sowing of wheat, it would certainly have a positive effect on area under wheat in Punjab.

The need of the hour is to control prices of inputs. Given the high cost and availability risk of other inputs, usage of other inputs like weedicides also goes low on farmers’ priority list. Weeds are inimical to plant growth and development and require timely eradication. The government should offer weedicides at cheaper rates.

Another factor is the availability of certified seed. Whether enough certified seed is available this time around to cover 2.2 million acres? Certainly, the seed certified producing agencies always run short of fulfilling the certified seed requirements of the farmers. The trouble with our agriculture is the lack of creativity in research due to which there is no improvement in the potential yield of wheat cultivars for the last decade. The researchers have not been able to introduce any high yielding wheat cultivar and the growers are bound to cultivate wheat cultivars introduced in the early nineties.

The agriculture departments of the provinces should fix targets for use of quality seeds. For this purpose, they should explore the services of certified seed-producing bodies.

Wheat seed exchange programmes should be launched during the ensuing Rabi season to provide quality and certified wheat seeds to farmers. Under this programme, the farmers could be able to exchange graded seed with certified seed for which the difference of cost should be born by district governments.