KARACHI, May 6: Pakistan has seen a slight fall in its exports to the US in the first eight months of this fiscal year and business leaders fear further fall in the remaining part of the fiscal year. But they are sure the exports to the US will not miss the historical $2 billion mark.

Export Promotion Bureau statistics show that exports to the US fell to $1.424 billion in July-February 2001-02 down $46 million from $1.470 billion in July-February 2000-01. For many this fall is lesser than what they were anticipating in the wake of September 11 terror attacks on the US. Foreign buyers including those from the US have temporarily suspended imports from Pakistan after September 11, 2001 incident and the US-led war against Afghanistan.

The US customs authorities have also tightened screening of Pakistani exports at the US ports.

But, as the statistics suggest, all this had no big impact on Pakistan’s exports to the US in the first eight months of this fiscal year.

“The reason is Pakistan’s supportive role in the US-led war in Afghanistan removed apprehensions of the American businessmen,” says former chairman of SITE Association of Industry Majyd Aziz.

“Initially they showed some reservations...but when they had realized that Pakistan was supporting the US cause they made it business as usual with Pakistan.”

But observers note that the US importers took advantage of the situation: they forced their Pakistani suppliers to lower their export prices. This is evident from the fact that in January- March 2002 Pakistan increased the utilization of its textile quota for the US by 17 per cent compared to January-March 2001. But in terms of value the textile exports declined by 25 per cent in the same period.

Textiles make up the bulk of $2 billion annual exports to the US.

Regardless of the fact that the US buyers made cheaper imports from Pakistan—and they are still managing to buy textile quota items at cheaper prices—chances are that Pakistan exports to the US will not miss the $2 billion mark.

“We may see our exports to the US record a modest decline at the end of this fiscal year but I am sure our exports to the US will not be less than $2 billion,” said a senior EPB official.

“We may even cross this mark.”

The EPB statistics show an increasing trend in the exports of some major items to the US recorded an increase in July-February 2001-2002.

On top of them is bedwear whose exports to the US earned $175 million in the first eight months of this fiscal year up from about $128 million in a year-ago period. Export of cotton fabrics and towels fetched $146 million and $81 million respectively up from $120 million and $74 million.

Export of surgical instruments rose to $32 million from $29.5 million.

Other items whose exports to the US showed a rise in the first eight months of this fiscal year include (i) fish & fish products (ii) leather gloves (iii) rice (iv) knitted/croched fabrics (v) leather (vi) handicrafts (vii) chemical products and (viii) fruit and vegetable. Molasses was added to the list of goods exported to the US during July-February 2001-02 though export of this item fetched only about $1.3 million.

“We hope the exports of these items to the US will continue to show increasing trend in the remaining period of the fiscal year also,” said a senior EPB official.

But what the EPB officials should be worried about is that the list of the items whose export to the US fell in July-February 2001-02 is long. Besides, the combined export value of these items in the first eight months of this fiscal year at $912 million is higher than the combined worth ($512 million) of the items whose exports showed an increase.

Knitwear tops the list of the items whose exports to the US have recorded a fall: Pakistan earned $339 million through knitwear exports to the US in July-February 2001-02 down from $387 million earned a year-ago.

Export of readymade garments to the US also declined to $208 million from $246 million whereas carpet exports fell to around $58 million from a little less than $71 million. The export of apparel and clothes of leather totalled $42 million down from $50 million.

The EPB statistics show that export of cotton yarn and sports goods to the US earned $36 million and $32 million respectively in the first eight months of this fiscal year—down from $53 million and $43 million a year ago.

Other items whose exports to the United States fell in July- February 2001-2002 as compared to July-February 2000-2001 included (i) madeups and articles of textiles (ii) artsilk and synthetic textiles (ii) cutlery (iii) jewellry (iv) guar products (v) cotton bags (vi) yarn other than cotton yarn (vii) onyx manufactures and embroidery.