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MANILA: Fifteen months after riding to power on the backs of army generals, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo faces one of her toughest tests as she wrestles with the choice of who will be the next armed forces chief.
Analysts agree the 55-year-old economist can ill afford to make a wrong call at a time when she is struggling to spur the economy to full recovery and unify a deeply divided country.
An unpopular choice on Arroyo’s part could provoke discontent within the armed forces which, if stoked by politicians, could weaken her grip on power, they warn.
Current chief General Diomedio Villanueva retires on May 20 and Arroyo is to announce his replacement soon.
Among generals said to be on Arroyo’s shortlist, the most prominent names that have cropped up are those of Vice Chief of Staff Gregorio Camiling, Deputy Chief of Staff Narciso Abaya and southern military commander Roy Cimatu.
All three have their clutch of supporters in the military.
Manila newspapers have mentioned Cimatu as a strong contender but there is some opposition to him, because he is not the most senior and is due to retire by July.
In his current post, Cimatu has direct command of about 40 percent of the 130,000-strong military and is in charge of the country’s most imperative security job: to put down or contain a decades-old Muslim rebellion and crush the Abu Sayyaf guerrillas.
Washington has linked the Abu Sayyaf to the al Qaeda network of Osama bin Laden and has sent hundreds of troops to train Filipinos to help eliminate the group.
Camiling is the most senior and has commanded the most divisions. But Cimatu is reputed to be backed by Defence Secretary Angelo Reyes, which could be a key factor.
THE DARK HORSE: Some analysts say Abaya, the most junior of the three but with a reputation of being a “deep thinker” who projects himself well, would be the least controversial choice.
Reyes was armed forces chief in January 2000 when he defected to Arroyo’s side along with top generals as public opposition to then president, Joseph Estrada, mounted.
But appointing Cimatu could provoke charges of a return to a hated practice of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who extended the careers of ageing generals who were loyal to him, political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan said.
The practice helped provoke a military-backed “people power revolt” in 1986 which ended Marcos’s 20-year rule.
However, retired General Alfred Filer, head of risk-control firm Independent Insights Inc, said even if Arroyo’s choice would not be universally popular, discontent would not last long.
AURA OF VULNERABILITY: Analysts said grumbling within the military alone would not be enough to unsettle the Arroyo presidency but unrest could grow dangerously if there was parallel discontent in civil society.
Arroyo faces considerable opposition from Estrada’s supporters despite her majority in Congress and support from the powerful church in addition to the military. But she also projects an air of vulnerability and rumours of political instability have hounded her 15-month tenure.
Senator Biazon also said any discontent in the military could feed into civil unhappiness.
Arroyo’s presidency could be seriously challenged if grumbling among soldiers occurred simultaneously with civic protests, Biazon added. And although there was little dissatisfaction in the military now, it could surface.—Reuters
