CYNICS say forecasts about two things can go wrong in Pakistan: weather and elections. Rarely have weather pundits in Pakistan been spot on, rain or sunshine.

Elections are a rarity in this country anyway, but when they do happen, these have often proven most political pundits wrong. It is a risky business, therefore, to foretell the likely outcome of an election in Pakistan where public scepticism about the entire process being free and fair runs very deep, largely due to our establishment’s own machinations.

Take the 2002 elections, for instance; when the ANP was widely expected to post a handsome tally in the NWFP, it was trounced so badly by a hitherto unknown phenomenon called the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal that even those in the establishment, who allegedly helped form the religious conglomerate, were taken by surprise.

Should Feb 18 elections be any different? There is already a great deal of fear and anxiety about the law and order situation on the polling day. Voters’ turnout is expected to be fairly low.

On the fateful day, people would like to wait for a few hours before making up their mind to cast their vote.

This can make a huge difference. Only committed party workers would take the risk of leaving their homes to go to the polling stations and, therefore, any candidate who manages to bring out large numbers of voters would make the difference. And this factor alone can upset all forecasting.

There is no dearth, though, of political pundits and observers who, without batting an eyelid, would pronounce victory for the Awami National Party in the NWFP, followed closely by the Pakistan People’s Party.

The ANP senses victory and its supporters are working overnight to ensure that this happens. The party appears to have done its homework by fielding what it believes winning candidates. Its campaign has been very well organised. Its critics, however, say expediency has taken the better of ANP’s once proud history of never abandoning its old workers.

By all assessments, and this includes the government’s own calculations, the ANP should do well. With a two per cent margin of error, it should bag anywhere between 25 and 29 seats in the NWFP Assembly.

Pakistan People’s Party is also expected to do well, despite weak political leadership in the NWFP. It may win 20-plus seats, making it the second largest group in the NWFP Assembly.

This should not be surprising. In the 2005 local bodies’ elections, both the ANP and PPP staged a comeback, retaking areas they had lost to the MMA behemoth.

The MMA had lost badly. Peshawar, Charsadda, Nowshera, Mardan and Swabi saw the resurgence of the ANP and the PPP. It’s in the so-called Peshawar valley where both the secular-liberal parties are expected to get maximum seats.

Independent candidates are likely to emerge as the third largest group, holding the crucial balance in the 124-member NWFP Assembly. This should also not cause any surprises. Personalised vote banks have always helped independent candidates to get themselves a berth in the provincial legislature.

The PML-Q and the MMA (now reduced to the JUI-F) should fare more or less equally. The PML-N which was widely expected to fare poorly seems to have nibbled into the PML-Q vote-bank, particularly in its former stronghold of Hazara.

From a group that enjoyed absolute majority in the House in the NWFP Assembly, the MMA is likely to be relegated to fourth or fifth position.

PPP (Sherpao) has been hit hard by two suicide bombings against its leader, former interior minister Aftab Sherpao in his home-district of Charsadda, restricting his movement. But the party is likely to retain some of its seats in the NWFP Assembly.

The National Assembly seat scenario should reflect the public mood. Political observers believe that the ANP, PPP and PML-Q should get the maximum number of seats.

The MMA (read the JUI-F) is perhaps going to get the worst shock of its political history. There is a near unanimity amongst political soothsayers that the religious alliance which had trampled the ANP, PPP and other mainstream political parties with so much disdain in 2002, may suffer an equally shocking and humiliating defeat this time.

The JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman is facing a tough electoral battle. He is contesting from two National Assembly constituencies, and if he is lucky, he should win at least one. And that he would owe to his party chief minister Akram Khan Durrani’s generous funding for development work. Fazlur Rehman’s brother, Maulana Lutfur Rehman, appears to be facing the same predicament.

Many factors could be attributed to MMA’s this fall from grace: (a) The incumbency factor, its poor performance and failure to deliver on its promises; (b) the deteriorating law and order situation and its widely perceived complacency and toleration of Talibanisation in the NWFP; and (c) MMA’s break-up stemming from JUI-F’s tacit help in facilitating Gen Pervez Musharraf get votes from the NWFP Assembly to get himself elected as president for the second term.

Political forecast notwithstanding, cynics are still reluctant to bet their money on parties likely to post a win. Their cynicism grows from speculations that the security establishment is not yet willing to dump either the Q League or its other blue-eyed group, the JUI-F. Not just yet.

The Q-League NWFP president, Amir Muqam, who President Musharraf publicly declared his brother, goes around doling out government largesse in the shape of gas and electricity connections. Pipes are being laid and cables being strung literally wherever he goes. The District Police Officers and the District Coordination Officers posted during the days of the MMA rule remain unchanged. Large amounts of funds released towards the fag-end of the MMA rule to party members to shore up their election chances, continued to flow unhindered.

But how much of this and other factors change the complexion of future dispensation would depend on how many people turn out to vote for their candidates. With turnout expected to be fairly low due to security reasons, even a marginal difference of votes polled may make a big difference and cause upsets. It’s a dicey game. Even those sure of their win are not so sure of themselves.