ISLAMABAD, Sept 20: The presidential election will be an interesting numbers’ game with votes to be calculated under a formula which gives equal representation to the four provincial assemblies although the number of their seats vary because of the difference of population.

The Presidential Election Rules 1988, devised in accordance with the Article 41 of the Constitution, provides for a 1,170-member electoral college of both houses of parliament and the four provincial assemblies though under the calculation formula the total number of votes is 702.

The winner needs only a majority of the votes polled, rather than of the entire electoral college, which would greatly lose its strength if opposition parties carry out their threat to quit their seats in the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies if President Musharraf contests the election. Such a boycott by the opposition parties may put the legitimacy of the election in question, but it will be of little legal consequence.

The procedure for the election is given in paragraph 18 of the Second Schedule of the Constitution under which the chief election commissioner will determine the result in the following manner:

The number of votes cast in the National Assembly, the Senate and the Balochistan Assembly in favour of each candidate will be counted normally. But the number of votes cast in the other three provincial assemblies in favour of each candidate will be multiplied by the total number of seats in the Balochistan Assembly (at present having the smallest number of seats) and divided by the total number of seats in the assembly in which the votes have been cast. The number of votes thus calculated will be added to the votes secured by each candidate in parliament and the Balochistan assembly. A fraction in the count would be rounded off to the nearest whole.

The breakdown of the 1,170-strong electoral college is as follows:

342 members of the National Assembly, 100 of the Senate, 371 of the Punjab assembly, 168 of the Sindh assembly, 124 of the NWFP assembly and 65 of the Balochistan assembly.

With the Balochistan assembly having the smallest number of members -- 65, the votes in all three other provincial assemblies will be divided by 65 and, therefore, 5.70 MPAs of Punjab, 2.58 of Sindh and 1.90 of the NWFP assembly will be equivalent to one vote. By rounding off the figures, six MPAs of Punjab will amount to one vote, five of Sindh to two votes and two of the NWFP Assembly to one vote.

Under the formula, 270 MPAs in the Punjab Assembly voting for a candidate will be considered 47 votes (270 x 65 / 371) or a candidate getting 100 votes in the Sindh Assembly will be considered to have obtained 39 votes (100 x 65 / 168).

The PML-led ruling coalition majorities in the National Assembly, the Senate and the Punjab and Sindh assemblies can neutralise opponents even if the opposition does not boycott the poll.

In the National Assembly, the ruling coalition has the support of 197 MNAs, including with some possible abstentions, compared to 142 opposition members while three seats are lying vacant. In the Senate, the coalition has 58 senators and the opposition 42.

The PML and its allied parties have at present 271 MPAs in the Punjab assembly, 105 in Sindh assembly, 28 in the NWFP assembly and 25 in the Balochistan assembly.