RIYADH, July 28: Despite some hints of thaw within Opec on the issue of pumping still more crude into the markets in the wake of vociferous calls from all quarters, the cartel still appears reluctant.

And there are reasons for that.

Way back in the mid 80s, just before the crash of the global crude markets, there was a similar echo all around for the Opec to open its taps. And when the cartel finally succumbed to the pressure, the markets crashed. All this is entrenched in the very psyche of the Gulf crude producers. They can’t forget it easily.

The pressure is once again building up. The clamour for Opec to pump more crude is becoming vociferous – coming from all around – this time too.

The pressure emanating from virtually all quarters is finally starting to take its toll. Signals emerging indicate some softening in Opec position in this regard. “If the oil market needs it, Opec will inject more oil into it,” Javad Yarjani, the head of Opec affairs at Iran's oil ministry, said in the first hint that the organisation is ready to push more crude in the markets.

The Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah added: “Opec should move when there is strong evidence that there is a shortage in crude supplies.” Even the Opec President Mohamed al-Hamli admitted: “We are concerned about the higher price, because we don't want to go through a recession.”

Opec’s reluctance to produce more oil is not much difficult to understand, especially, also in view of the Organisation’s assumptions about future non-Opec oil supplies.

“The organisation takes a much more optimistic view about non-Opec oil production than the CGES, or even the IEA. It sees non-Opec oil production rising to 51.2 million bpd by the final quarter of 2007, yielding a year-on-year increase of close to one million bpd, and sees a further one million bpd non-Opec output increase in 2008, considerably higher than the CGES forecast of just 0.5 million bpd and 0.7 million bpd, respectively for 2007 and 2008..

The Opec, also appears to be taking note of possible US legal action against its members on grounds of price manipulation, would prefer to adopt a wait and see policy.

The world's drive to conserve energy has also given Opec further justification for its cautious approach to bringing on new oil- even at the risk of a widening gap between supply and demand – some say.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly signalled it might not be necessary to boost potential output above its targeted 12.5 million barrels per day if consumers meet their goals of greater energy efficiency and reduced dependence on oil.

Many now say the kingdom is right to exercise caution. “It seems perfectly rational for Saudi Arabia to state that it will not invest without consideration of demand,” said Paul Horsnell of Barclays Capital.

“Consumer countries are telling Opec to invest at a faster rate, but they are simultaneously talking of drastically reducing their oil imports and pursuing a highly ‘petrophobic’ energy agenda,” he said.

And thus within days of International Energy Agency warning of a global oil supply squeeze over the next five years, Opec said the group would be forced to closely monitor the challenge from rival bio fuels.

Rhetoric, unfortunately political rather than practical, seems to have impacted the psychology of the producers. And this could disturb the global crude demand-supply dynamics, one has to underline.

This all could be disastrous for the global energy balance. If influential players, from Samuel Bodman to Claude Mandil and Ali Al-Naimi to Ambassador Arne Walther, fail to take note of this emerging perception within the producers’ camp – much could be at peril.