LONDON: Judging by past performance Britain will struggle to meet ambitious “green” targets of slicing a third off climate warming carbon dioxide emissions within 12 years, risking international embarrassment.

Regulations will have to be tightened to curb emissions from factories and cars, and more incentives will have to be offered to persuade people to change the way they live.

And that is only a stop on the way to the government’s pledge to cut CO2 emissions by 60 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050 – nearly 10 times what it has so far achieved.

Britain was the first nation to propose legislation setting binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions saying it wants to set an example to the world. But doubts remain over whether businesses and individuals will make the necessary sacrifices.

“All the data that I am aware of suggests there is absolutely no chance of reducing carbon dioxide significantly in the next 40 years globally and not much more nationally,” said social anthropologist and climate commentator Benny Peiser.

“That is because traffic and transport is going to double if not quadruple and the technology to compensate for that kind of steep rise just isn’t available,” he said.

But environmental analysts say it should not be difficult.

“People will have to change the way they live. Not drastically but giving much more thought to what they buy and what they do,” said Chris Goodall, environmentalist and author of How to Live a Low Carbon life.

“Conserving energy is easy and surprisingly addictive.”

Britons emit about 12.5 tons of carbon dioxide a year each, compared with 20 tons for Americans and Canadians but barely two tonnes for Indians.

Industry, homes and transport each account for roughly one-third of the total emissions. Industry and household carbon output has been falling slowly but transport is rising sharply.

Air travel is a major problem. It causes only a small amount of pollution now but is predicted to surge to a level equivalent to two-thirds of the government’s 2050 emissions target.

The government is promoting air travel and has made only a token move to raise passenger duty to make it more expensive.

“What the government will have to do is begin some real demand management,” said Friends of the Earth head Tony Juniper, noting high-altitude emissions were twice as harmful.

Peiser noted the stark contradiction between the government’s declared goal of reducing emissions and its agreement to the EU/US open skies deal on Thursday that will boost transatlantic travel by making fares even cheaper.

Environmental lobbyists say British finance minister Gordon Brown made only token gestures by penalising gas guzzling cars and promoting home insulation in his 11th budget this week. He also shied away from putting levies on airline tickets.

Former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern says acting now on climate change could cost one per cent of gross domestic product globally, while delay could cost 20 times that amount.

And while Britain is now one of only seven countries to have installed two gigawatts of wind power – enough to power one million homes – it lags badly elsewhere.—Reuters