What happens next

Published September 8, 2006

LONDON, Sept 7: Following is a list of possible scenarios in the Blair saga:

* If Labour members of parliament (MPs) believe Mr Blair has been too vague about his plans, they are likely to continue to agitate for his departure. Government would be paralysed.

* Around 100 legislators are reported to want the prime minister to step down sooner rather than later. Analysts say that if another handful of junior ministers quit their posts, or if Mr Blair is given a hostile reception at his party’s conference later this month, then he may be forced to name an earlier date.

* If senior cabinet members were to resign or call on Tony Blair to quit it could make his position untenable.

* If Mr Blair and Finance Minister Gordon Brown, his likely successor, have agreed a deal in private which gives Mr Brown more power — for example taking a leading role in next year’s local elections due in May — Labour MPs could accept Blair remaining in office until mid-2007.

* Labour MPs realise the squabbling over the party leadership is damaging their electoral prospects and agree to Mr Blair’s timetable to stand down.—Reuters

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