LAHORE: Pakistan’s basmati rice exports are showing a remarkable turnaround after a weak start to the financial year 2026, with shipments in just two months of 2026 nearly matching the entire first half of the fiscal year, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Official figures indicate that Pakistan exported 250,269 tonnes of basmati rice from July to December 2025, whereas January-February 2026 exports surged to 258,835 tonnes, effectively equaling the previous six months’ performance in just two months.

This sharp rebound points to renewed momentum in the country’s premium rice segment. The recovery is being attributed to improved crop quality, stronger resilience and marketing efforts by exporters and timely government support, particularly a 9 percent per-tonne subsidy aimed at boosting competitiveness.

Industry stakeholders note that this resurgence comes despite significant external challenges, including aggressive price undercutting by India, nearly 9pc depreciation of the Indian rupee, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions in the Gulf and Red Sea regions.

Despite the recent gains, February 2026 exports show a mixed picture. Pakistan exported 72,530 tonnes of basmati rice during the 28-day month, even without the Taftan border data. However, this was still 13pc lower year-on-year, while coarse rice exports fell sharply by 32.42pc to 288,955 tonnes, bringing total rice exports for the month to 361,484 tons, down 29.68pc compared to February 2025.

On a cumulative basis, the basmati exports during the first eight months of FY26 (July-February) stood at 509,104 tonnes, reflecting a 10.7pc decline, while coarse rice exports dropped by 35.95pc to 2.29 million tonnes. Overall rice exports fell by 32.5pc during this period. However, the latest trend suggests that Pakistan is well-positioned to recover lost ground in the remaining four months of FY26. To match last year’s basmati export volume of 808,643 tonnes, the country needs to export approximately 299,000 tonnes, or around 75,000 tonnes per month — a target that now appears achievable given the current pace.

Exporters, however, remain cautiously optimistic, although shipments to the west Asian and Gulf markets — which account for nearly 65pc of Pakistan’s basmati exports — are currently facing disruptions due to the ongoing conflict, with consignments stranded at ports and in transit. Nevertheless, given that rice is a staple food in the region, trade is expected to rebound quickly once conditions stabilise.

Rice sector analyst Hamid Malik, however, sees Pakistan’s overall rice export outlook under pressure. Total exports, which stood at 5.82 million tonnes last year, are projected to decline by 25–30pc in FY26, primarily due to a 1.6 million tonne shortfall in non-basmati exports, driven by higher domestic prices, reduced carryover stocks, and stiff competition from lower-priced Indian and Vietnamese rice.

Even so, the Basmati segment’s resilience and recent surge offer a strong signal of recovery, positioning Pakistan to potentially exceed expectations in the premium rice market despite a challenging global trade environment.

Published in Dawn, March 30th, 2026