AS the fate of the US-Iran talks remains undecided, there are worrying signs that in case the negotiations collapse, a devastating new conflict could engulf the Middle East and its surrounding regions. In this regard, the IAEA Board of Governors has said in a resolution that Iran is not complying with its nuclear commitments. But the resolution was not unanimous; three states voted against it while 11 abstained, indicating a likely geopolitical role in the drafting and passage of the resolution. Both Russia and China, which have cordial ties with Iran, voted against it, while the US and its European allies supported it. Tehran has said that in case further sanctions are imposed on it, it will leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Meanwhile, the US has recalled non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad, while dependents of military personnel have been told to leave American facilities in the Gulf states in anticipation of an Iranian response to an Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic. Iran has said it will hit American bases in the region if it is attacked.

Considering these worrying developments, the US-Iran talks to be held in Oman on Sunday — if they go ahead — will provide a make-or-break opportunity to walk back from the brink for both sides. Donald Trump, who had initially been upbeat about the talks, said personnel were being withdrawn as the Middle East “could be a dangerous place”. But instead of withdrawing his people, the American president needs to put pressure on Israel to refrain from a dangerous attack on Iran. He has prevailed on the Zionist state to hold off on such reckless behaviour before, and must continue to do so in the interest of regional peace. While the US-Israel combine has an obvious military edge, Iran will surely retaliate if attacked, just as it hit Israel twice last year. Moreover, while Iranian allies such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad may be weakened or out of the picture, Tehran still has formidable military capabilities, while Yemen’s pro-Iran Houthis, who say an Israeli attack will cause a regional war, are also capable of causing the US and its allies much pain. Therefore, in order to avoid a nightmarish new war, it is essential that Israel is reined in, and diplomacy is given a chance in Oman.

Published in Dawn, June 13th, 2025