WE are currently witnessing a profound and deeply unsettling shift in global geopolitics. It echoes the warning of Winston Churchill who once remarked that the “wars of peoples will be more terrible than those of kings”. Spoken on the eve of World War II, his words captured a pivotal transformation — from traditional conflicts between monarchs to total wars involving entire nations, ideologies and civilian populations. Today, this warning seems more relevant than ever.

Across Europe, a growing number of countries are reinstating compulsory military service, with the United Kingdom now seriously debating the pros and cons of its return. These developments reflect an unmistakable preparation for potential confrontation ahead. It is in this context that we need to see the rising military tension between Pakistan and India, which is a cause of grave concern.

With both the neighbouring countries for long accumulating piles of advanced weaponry, the possibility of an escalation could never really be ruled out in a region that has teetered on the edge of volatility.

These global instabilities are now reflected in financial markets, where falling long-term bond prices and rising long-term interest rates signal growing investor anxiety. In the current global monetary system based on debts, such shocks will soon affect everyday lives, as nations turn inward, boycott rivals, and abandon economic cooperation — echoing patterns often seen before past major global conflicts.

Amid global turmoil, the United States has forged a massive investment pacts with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, creating an economic oasis in a world inching its way towards conflict. As Europe and Asia brace for instability, this strategic move secures American influence in a region that is vital to energy and global finance.

The future remains uncertain, but the current trajectory is quite alarming. The institutions that emerged from the ashes of World War II — the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — were meant to prevent another catastrophic conflict. The urgent question now is whether or not they are still capable of fulfilling that mission.

With nuclear-armed states issuing thinly veiled threats — like Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent remark that he hopes “there will be no need” to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine — we find ourselves once again on the precipice of history, staring into the abyss.

For Pakistan, the urgent task should be to pursue economic statecraft that may strengthen national unity as well as resilience, ensuring that the country does remain stable and prosperous in an increasingly violent, zero-sum world.

Adil Hanif Godil
London, UK

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2025