PARIS, April 20: As East and West stand divided over how to respond to Iran’s nuclear programme, analysts warned on Thursday that a US-led military strike had become a plausible outcome to the crisis.

“There are two irreconcilable visions — the Iranians will do anything to have their bomb and the Americans will do anything for them not to have it,” said Dominique Moisi of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

“The chances of us moving in the medium term towards a military solution are well and truly 50-50,” he said.

“There is definitely an American military option,” agreed Bruno Tertrais, of the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).

“I think it’s more than just putting pressure on Iran. I think it’s a real possibility,” argued Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

“The (US) administration is looking at it seriously, not for using it today but if all else fails, as a last option.”

Frederic Tellier, of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), agreed that “the evolution of the crisis leads us to envisage a military solution in the medium term”.

He said he expected the military option to “return to the forefront very quickly, from the start of 2007”.

Fitzpatrick was more cautious, saying there was still “room for diplomacy” and predicting that any military strike would be at least three years away — the minimum time it would take Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

Faced with Iran’s determination, however, others have warned diplomacy may not be powerful enough to force it to renounce its nuclear goals.

“The story whereby everybody plays their part — some using a carrot and the others a stick — doesn’t work anymore,” argued Georges Le Guelte, a former member of the board of governors of the UN’s nucelar watchdog, the IAEA.

“It is not only the Americans who are going to be asking themselves questions about possible military —AFP