WITH Donald Trump just days away from leading the United States again, it is important for Pakistan to assess his foreign policy priorities. The US foreign policy vis-à-vis China will impact Pakistan the most. Trump’s selection of Marco Rubio, known for his hawkish stance on China, as his foreign secretary signals his approach to the matter.

Trump will ramp up competition with China. During his first term, he had imposed tariffs on more than $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. During his campaign, he vowed to impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, and a blanket 10pc tariff on all imports coming to the US.

The US has long viewed Pakistan as a strategic partner of China. Adversarial US-China relationship will put Pakistan in a difficult position.

Trump’s monetary policies will likely lead to a spike in interest rates, which will strengthen the US currency, and make life difficult for Pakistani exporters. The impact on Pakistani economy will be negative.

The US-Iran relationship is another element for Pakistan to keep an eye on. Trump is likely to be more hawkish in this regard than he was in his first term. As Pakistan shares a part of its international border with Iran, any wider conflagration involving Iran would have a direct impact on Pakistan.

Pakistan, given its multiple crises of political uncertainty, economic instability and resurrecting terrorism, has to assess its diplomatic weaknesses and strengths to remain relevant for both the US and China.

Pakistan will have to transition from security-oriented bilateral ties to broader and sustainable economic and political relationships to reap maximum benefits from both the global powers while being relevant in the geopolitical arena.

Mikaael Ahmad
Muzaffarabad

Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025