A RECENTLY released report of the World Bank, “Securing Sindh’s future: challenges ahead” has revealed startling facts about the state of governance and socio-economic well-being in the province, particularly in the rural areas. The document is littered with hard facts of under-development in the province.

The overall governance seems to be the key factor responsible for socio-economic degradation. A province which has been contributing enormously to the national economy is suffering from negative growth in almost every sector.

In 1947, Sindh had 40 per cent higher per capita income than Punjab and nearly 55 per cent higher than the rest of country. The decline in the ratios started gradually in early 1970s, with Sindh losing its lead in the per capita income to 36 per cent in 1991-92 and to barely 16 per cent by 2004-5. This downslide resulted in growth of poverty.

During the last decade per capita income rise in Punjab and NWFP was recorded at 1.6 and 2.3 per cent against Sindh’s 0.9 per cent. This slower growth in incomes was also shared by a sizable number of people from the North settled in the province. It has impacted on household incomes also. The World Bank estimates that 81 per cent of households in Sindh did not experience any improvement in their economic situation as compared to the previous year, as against 72 per cent in the rest of country.

The people in the province suffered from poor growth of job market due to absence of vibrant industrial sector and low performing agriculture sector. The shortage of water has been is a source of consistent pressure on the incomes of the farmers.

About 600,000 people will be annually added to the job pool in next 10 years, whereas the long-term job creation potential of the province is estimated around 350,000 annually barring exceptional years of high growth, when the figure may rise to 500,000.

Under normal conditions, Sindh is likely to have an army of 1.0 to 2.5 million jobless people each year. In 2004-05 nearly 610,000 persons were unemployed. Taking an optimistic view, at least 1.6 million jobless will be looking for jobs over next 10 years. Sindh needs to have a robust economy growing at a rate of 7-8 per cent for the coming years.

Influx from outside increases the burden of the provincial economy. The World Bank report also acknowledges that during the decades of 80s and 90s Karachi’s population increased by more than the whole population of Lahore, obviously not all locally born. An additional chief secretary (development), Sindh is on record saying that every additional migrant costs Sindh Rs32,000 per year in terms of water, education, health and other facilities. However their contribution in growing unemployment and poverty of locals is not fully established.

Rural Sindh has been the worst hit due to persistent drought partly natural and partly due to artificially created shortage of canal water owing to faulty management of water in country. Almost 14 out of 17.8 million people live in rural areas, mainly dependent on agriculture. This has been the flagship sector of Sindh’s economy till 1980s. However, the bad polices coupled by drought took its toll. Table 1 shows clear trend of decline in the growth of major crops.

The situation is not too different in other sectors. The only sector which registered significant growth is mining and quarrying (which is mainly located in rural Sindh but hardly gives any benefit to the local communities). A comparison of growth in various sectors of economy in 90s and the current decade are given in Table 2.

Sindh’s share in the national economy also fell in almost all sectors. Of course, Karachi always jacks up the figures. The poverty in rural Sindh is under-estimated due to indicators of Karachi. For example, Household Income and Expenditure Survey-2001 (HIES) shows 36.7 per cent poverty in Sindh, If Karachi is excluded, the figure goes up to 48.4 per cent.

The urban centres, barring Karachi, have poor indicators as the rest of rural Sindh. In the long-run this disparity will bring negative implications for Karachi itself since this development gap will invariably push people to migrate from rural areas to the metropolis only to aggravate its nearly crippled infrastructural services.

The World Bank report also recognizes both gender and geographical based disparities as a major area of concern. The following facts are quite revealing:

* For every 100 boys being immunized in urban areas, only 70 boys get immunized in the villages.

* Over 87 per cent of babies are fully immunized in cities as against only 62 per cent in rural areas.

* For every 100 boys enrolled in primary schools of urban areas, only 43 girls are enrolled in rural areas.

In 2001-02 for the first time, the percentage of households below poverty line in Sindh surpassed the rest of country. Taking literacy for example, during ten years from 1995-96 to 2004-5, the literacy rate increased by 61 per cent in NWFP and by 35 per cent in Punjab, whereas the increase in literacy rate in Sindh was only 24 per cent. In the same period, the net enrolment in primary schools increased by 34 per cent in NWFP and 29 per cent in Punjab, whereas Sindh recorded a dismally low six per cent rise.