THE State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) recent Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS), while a valuable tool, may be compromised by methodological shortcomings. The blunt phrasing of questions could inadvertently introduce a negative bias, as respondents may be more inclined to express pessimism when confronted directly with personal circumstances. This systematic bias can distort the accuracy of the survey.

The SBP should consider adopting a more nuanced approach. By framing questions in terms of the ‘average cons-umer’ or employing hypothetical scenarios, the survey can potentially mitigate the impact of personal biases. Additionally, consulting with statisticians as well as economists can help ensure that the survey’s design and analysis are rigorous.

By implementing these recommenda-tions, the SBP can enhance the reliability of its CCS, providing policymakers with more accurate insights into consumer sentiment and economic expectations.

Ummad Mazhar
Lahore

Published in Dawn, September 12th, 2024