Underplaying the significance of former premier Imran Khan’s political and politicised narrative of being a victim of ‘foreign conspiracy’ and the power of that stance to galvanise his support base, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government is working to justify the change, counting on the ‘economic team’ and the ‘goodwill in the East and the West’ to pull the country out of the current economic quagmire.

“The coalition government stands a chance in the next election only if it succeeds in providing instant relief to the public, quelling uncertainty, boosting investment and charting out a viable, painless path of sustainable development,” said an expert.

It is not going to be easy for the coalition to rise up to people’s expectation of some respite from the crushing inflation, and the demand of the businesses to do something to ensure a decent growth rate amid mounting deficits and dipping forex reserves.

Food inflation in Pakistan was recorded at 15 per cent in March amid rising joblessness and stagnant salaries. The trade deficit in nine months of the current fiscal was clocked at $35 billion. The fiscal deficit is expected to cross 6pc of the GDP by a fair margin. The State Bank’s (SBP) foreign exchange reserves at $11bn are insufficient to cover two months of imports.

To stem the tide and ensure a decent growth rate amid mounting deficits and dipping reserves is going to cause the new govt many a sleepless night

Against a growth target of over 5.8pc, achieving even 4pc looks dodgy as the SBP had to resort to monetary tightening, raising the interest rate by 250 basis points to 12.25pc. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has delayed the disbursement of the $1bn tranche and China has yet to reschedule the promised $2.5bn debt repayment.

“We are taking stock of the situation that turned out to be graver than what it appeared to be from the outside. The uncertain outlook of the international commodity market in the wake of Russia Ukraine war and the global recession has aggravated the situation further,” a top coalition leader said while talking to Dawn.

“The prime minister has already initiated consultative interaction with experts, economists and business leaders on possible options. Among others, Salman Ahmed, senior partner at McKinsey, Atif Bajwa, CEO, Bank Al Falah, Muhammad Aurangzeb, President and CEO, HBL and Chairman, Pakistan Business Council, Mian Muhammad Mansha, Chairman, Nishat Group, Muhammad Ali Tabba, CEO, Lucky Cement, Arif Habib, Chairman, Fatima Fertilizer and CEO, Arif Habib Corporation, Saleem Shahzad, CEO, Nishat Chunian, Dr Eijaz Nabi, Country Director, International Growth Center, and Musadiq Zulqarnain, Chairman and CEO, Interloop Holdings, attended the first such meeting.

“Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif delivered in Punjab as the chief minister and enjoys the trust of development partners. It should help in clinching better deals with friendly nations and donors for an economic revival,” the coalition leader said over the phone.

Former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi found the neglect and irresponsible conduct of the ousted government ‘truly shocking’. Commenting on the initial steps of the new government, he said: “The articulation that we will engage the IMF has given some clarity to the market. Consolidation is the first step and then we will move on to address the immediate issues”.

Miftah Ismail, an economist by qualification and a businessman by profession, who has been a former finance minister and is tipped to hold that portfolio in the new cabinet, reconfirmed: “We will work with the IMF and try to get the stalled programme back on track.”

Dissecting the genesis of PTI protests and public meetings that could jeopardise the revival efforts, another leader termed them ‘a single party’s protest’; not a ‘public protest’.

“PTI workers and supporters are agitating against the ouster of their government. That is their right as long it’s peaceful. However, there is a cult-like element in the PTI that can prove dangerous. After the Trump experience, who doesn’t know that ‘hatred’ has great appeal and divisive politics sells like other sensational stuff?”

Commenting on the possibility of a collective initiative of local successful business groups to lend a helping hand for the economic revival by committing to scale up investment and sharing returns equitably with their staff and workers, PML-N leaders expressed doubts, but a top economist advised to ‘better wake up and stop dreaming’.

“They are addicted to risk-free investment and not ready to commit a penny of their own in this country. We have seen them burning their resources in the Middle East, but they pull out their wish lists before even talking about investment locally.

“They are used to low-risk investments. It’s hard to change their mindset,” a government leader said rather cautiously.

Moin M. Fudda holds vast experience working in the private and public sectors, sits on multiple boards and chairs the Central Depository Company’s board of directors. When approached for comment on the choices the new government can leverage to put the economy back on track, he advised the setup to focus on ‘agronomy and alternative energy’.

“We need to move towards agronomy which is the science and technology of producing and using plants for food, fuel, fibre and chemicals, etc. To this end, the Pakistan Agriculture Research Council must be activated by injecting sizeable budget-capable experts. The government can bring back Pakistani agriculture experts from Australia and New Zealand. Prospects of good returns can lure the private sector, thirsty for opportunities, to this key sector. In the next five years, Pakistan may achieve self-sufficiency in edible oil and pulses besides rice, fruits and vegetables.

“The Alternate Energy Development Board, established two decades back, is also under-budgeted to induct qualified and experienced engineers to take the current 10pc installed power generation capacity in renewables (wind, solar and biogas) to 20pc by 2025 and 30pc by 2030.

“Worldwide, for rooftop home users, tax incentives are given, but last year the ousted government levied taxes on solar panels and accessories and fixed the purchase price of extra generation at half the selling price by distribution companies. Thus, our import bill of oil for energy is rising and we are way behind the world’s average reduction of greenhouse gas and carbon emissions.”

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 18th, 2022